Conference Board confidence index at 92.9 vs. 94.2 consensus. Here’s confidence vs. U.Mich sentiment (all standardized).
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
“the stock market has predicted nine out of the last five recessions”
As attributed to Paul Samuelson. So, with trepidation, I show the SP500 and CAPE over the last half decade:
When Will EJ Antoni End His Recession Call?
EJ Antoni concludes we’re in a recession, and elsewhere, have been since 2022. On the other hand, he argues (rightly) that we shouldn’t take a face value GDPNow’s reading for Q1.
Guest Contribution: “No Mar-A-Lago Accord March 22, 2025”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version, was published by Project Syndicate.
Vogue Magazine on Imminent Recession
FT-Booth Macro Survey on GDP Growth vs. Nowcasts, and Recession Start-Dates
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post for comparison to FOMC SEP, the median entry is 1.7%). The average 90th/10th bounds are also interesting, in that large downside risks are perceived.
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median 2025 GDP growth is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the December SEP.
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) but retail sales remain noticeably down from prior peak.
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman (ASU).