From the CPI release, food at home (aka grocery) prices:
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
Wisconsin Employment and Forecasts
DWD released February employment numbers yesterday; DoR’s February Economic Outlook forecast was also published.
Expectations off a Cliff
Expectations in March (prel.) at 54.2 vs. 64.3 Bloomberg consensus. Thanks, Drumpf.
Guest Contribution: “Steeling losses: sectoral strains from the return of tariffs on steel and aluminium”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Maria Grazia Attinasi, Lucas Boeckelmann, Rinalds Gerinovics, and Baptiste Meunier (all ECB). This column reflects the opinions of the authors and not necessarily those of the European Central Bank.
Instantaneous Inflation: Headline, Core, Supercore for CPI, PPI, HICP
Data available as of today, first for headline:
“The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
That’s the title of an August 21,2024 article by Heritage Foundation’s EJ Antoni in the Boston Herald. Here’s an update of my August 28 post:
Egg Prices: Forecasts OBE?
Overtaken By Events:
EJ Antoni — Who Believes We’ve Been in Recession since 2022 — Worries that Democrats Will Misunderstand GDPNow to Claim We’re Entering a Recession in 2025Q1
Remember when GDP contracted under Biden but Dems said that wasn’t a recession? What will they say now that Trump is president? ATL Fed’s GDP nowcast for Q1 just plunged from 2.3% to -1.5% as everyone begins to realize our “growth” has just been debt-fueled gov’t spending
CROWE: “Will tariffs make Wisconsin rich?”
New working paper from Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy, by Junjie Guo and Ananth Seshadri. Although they don’t give a one word answer, I’m pretty sure it would be “no”.
Uncertainty: Does It Matter?
From Ferrara and Guerin (J. App. Econometrics, 2018), using a mixed frequency approach in VARs.