With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
More on the GDP Release: Compare against “Core GDP” and GDO
Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg:
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey:
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation:
The Man Who Would Be Commissioner* [corrected**]
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Mysteries of the CPI Release
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
A Conjectured Sahm Index for November [corrected]
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).