The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey (see this post for comparison to FOMC SEP, the median entry is 1.7%). The average 90th/10th bounds are also interesting, in that large downside risks are perceived.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
FT-Booth March Survey and the FOMC SEP: GDP’s Trajectory
The March FT-Booth survey is out; median q4/q4 growth for 2025 is 1.6%, down from 2.3% in the December survey. The FOMC’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) median 2025 GDP growth is 1.7%, down from 2.1% in the December SEP.
Jeffrey Frankel: “Where next for U.S. economy?”
In the Harvard Gazette today, and interview with Frankel:
Business Cycle Indicators NBER and Alternative, and GDPNow
Industrial and manufacturing production out today, retail sales out yesterday. All three are up, with IP +0.7% m/m and mfg +0.9% (vs. 0.2% and 0.3% Bloomberg consensus, respectively) but retail sales remain noticeably down from prior peak.
“Are we heading into a recession? Here’s what the data shows”
That’s the title of an article by Jasmine Cui for NBC, citing me, Jeffrey Frankel (formerly on the NBER BCDC), and Dennis Hoffman (ASU).
Q1 GDPNow at -2.1%; accounting for gold imports guesstimate, -0.1%
That’s from today’s GDPNow release (Calculation: As of the 7 March release, the reported GDPNow was -1.6%, while adjusted was +0.4%; a 2 ppts difference). Here’s the implied GDP levels.
The Russian Economy under (More?) Pressure
Economic Policy Uncertainty at Recorded Maximum
Latest updated data, 3/16 at 1074.
Recession Now?
When consumer sentiment drops as precipitously as it has (see here), then one has to ask if a recession is in the offing in this month. Here’s I’m using the U Michigan consumer sentiment index to determine if we’re in a recession now (i.e., not forecasting).
The Four Golfcartmen of the Apocalypse
In Biblical contexts, War, Death, Pestilence and Famine. Well, with the Trump administration, check, check, check, and check!