GDP growth of 4.3% far exceeded the 3.3% consensus forecast. However, as a survivor of the 2001 “is it or not” recession debate*, I think it useful to consider the revisions that occur to GDP growth. Here’s a picture of levels of GDP for 2001, according to different vintages.
Author Archives: Menzie Chinn
EJ Antoni: “The truth about the Heritage Foundation’s economic principles”
EJ Antoni writes a letter to WaPo editors:
“that the Heritage Foundation has become a protectionist bivouac. Au contraire, Heritage has been, is, and will continue to be a bastion of free-market conservatism.”
A Holiday Memo: NBER BCDC and Alternative Indicators
With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.
More on the GDP Release: Compare against “Core GDP” and GDO
Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg:
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey:
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation:
The Man Who Would Be Commissioner* [corrected**]
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
Republican Sentiment: “The Sun’ll Come Out, Tomorrow”
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers: