From GS:
Category Archives: China
China Q3 GDP Is a Mystery
It would’ve been a partial mystery even if NBS had released the number. Now it’s even more of a mystery, as the release has been delayed indefinitely (Trade data is a mystery too…)
Natixis: Impact on Chinese GDP Growth via Consumption Reduction
Garcia-Herrero and Xu, “China’s Covid Restrictions May Slash More than Two Percentage Points of Growth in 2022,” (Natixis, Sep 27, 2022):
[Assuming] Covid-related mobility restrictions in 03 to remain similar for 04, the overall reduction in China’s GDP growth in 2022 could be 2.3 percentage points.
Nearly 45 Years of the Chinese Yuan Exchange Rate
Official vs. effective, real vs. nominal, bilateral vs. multilateral.
“OHCHR Assessment of human rights concerns in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, People’s Republic of China”
From the conclusion to the Report:
Taiwan Strait Balance of Forces
Military Conflict and Economic Warfare, China-Taiwan
Some commentators have worried about imminent military hostilities between China and Taiwan (and hence the United States, almost assuredly). Here’s some reasons to think it’s not quite happening yet — at least the military part. The economic aspects — we’ll have to wait and see.
The China Outlook from the WEO
July WEO update:
In China, further lockdowns and the deepening real estate crisis have led growth to be revised down by 1.1 percentage points, with major global spillovers.
China Q2 Takes an (Expected) Dive
A 2.6% q/q dive in Chinese GDP is unsurprising, but unwelcome nonetheless:
Composition of Central Bank Holdings, 1965-2021
Estimated and reported: