House Representative Gooden’s recent comments discussed in LA Times:
Category Archives: China
China GDP and Forecasts
Chinese GDP for q4 was released a couple weeks ago, show a resumption of growth. The IMF has upped its growth forecast (WEO), relative to October’s, by nearly a percentage point (y/y). Nonetheless, the level of GDP will match roughly what was expected back in April’s report.
China Saber-Rattles (Again)
With provocative incursions of Chinese aircraft across the Taiwan Strait median line around Christmas Day (perhaps as a message responding to the US defense bill), it’s useful to review China’s military posture. Here’s the disposition of Chinese forces in the Eastern and Southern Theaters, as noted by the DoD’s 2022 assessment.
Chinese GDP Growth over the Xi Jinping Era
Over this period, growth has generally surprised on the downside.
The Coming Macro Shock of 2023: China
As Paul Krugman notes,
“[Chinese President] Xi has abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, with all indications pointing to a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will stress health care to the breaking point; the Chinese economy seems set to face major problems over the next two or three years”
What is “News”? What is an “Event study”? China Edition
Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider:
“China markets tank as protests erupt over Covid lockdowns”
From CNN:
China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.
Yin-Wong Cheung: “The RMB in the Global Economy”
From a new book from Cambridge:
3.9% and 3.9%: China y/y and q/q GDP Growth
After several days’ worth of delay, NBS released Q3 GDP, 3.9% y/y and q/q (not annualized), vs. 3.4% and 3.5% Bloomberg consensus (thereby ending the suspense). This is the picture, using an index.
How Do You Know Where You’re Going If You Don’t Know Where You Are? (China Statistics Edition)
A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT: