As Paul Krugman notes,
“[Chinese President] Xi has abruptly ended his signature “zero Covid” policy, with all indications pointing to a huge surge in hospitalizations and deaths that will stress health care to the breaking point; the Chinese economy seems set to face major problems over the next two or three years”
Remarks by a reader indicate it’s worthwhile to recap this topic. Consider:
From CNN:
China’s major stock indices and its currency have opened sharply lower Monday, as widespread protests against the country’s stringent Covid-19 restrictions over the weekend roiled investor sentiment.
From a new book from Cambridge:
After several days’ worth of delay, NBS released Q3 GDP, 3.9% y/y and q/q (not annualized), vs. 3.4% and 3.5% Bloomberg consensus (thereby ending the suspense). This is the picture, using an index.
A question becoming increasingly relevant as China cuts back on statistical releases. From Burn-Murdoch at FT:
From GS:
It would’ve been a partial mystery even if NBS had released the number. Now it’s even more of a mystery, as the release has been delayed indefinitely (Trade data is a mystery too…)
Garcia-Herrero and Xu, “China’s Covid Restrictions May Slash More than Two Percentage Points of Growth in 2022,” (Natixis, Sep 27, 2022):
[Assuming] Covid-related mobility restrictions in 03 to remain similar for 04, the overall reduction in China’s GDP growth in 2022 could be 2.3 percentage points.
Official vs. effective, real vs. nominal, bilateral vs. multilateral.