That’s a quote from Paul Burke, regional director for North Asia at the U.S. Soybean Export Council, in Time. He continues “This is the realization that we’re coming to within the trade within the last couple of weeks.”
Category Archives: commodities
The Trade Deficit Rises
From Goldman Sachs (Hatzius, et al.) today, interpreting today’s July trade release:
The trade deficit rose to $50.1bn in July, from a revised $45.7bn in June. Total exports fell 1.0%, as the total drop in exports ($2.1bn) was comprised primarily of declines in civilian aircraft ($1.6bn) and soybeans ($0.7bn). The decline in soybeans exports likely reflects payback following a sharp increase in June ahead of Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Total imports (+0.9%) rose, reflecting increases in both petroleum imports (+3.7%) as well as nonpetroleum imports (+0.6%).
Trumpification of USDA?
The demolishment of technocratic and research groups continues.
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The Recovery in Agricultural Futures, Post-Tariff Imposition
Soybean harvesting begins soon, with the new market year (9/1-), and it was thought by some observers that as China would have to eventually access American soybeans, so prices would recover. That event has not occurred.
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Guest Contribution: “Rising US Real Interest Rates Imply Falling Commodity Prices”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A version appeared earlier on his blog.
Measuring global economic activity
Measuring the level of global economic activity is of key interest. But the measures we have on variables like industrial production don’t cover all countries and are only available with a significant lag. Michigan Professor Lutz Kilian suggested in an influential paper published in 2009 that we could get a useful timely indicator by looking at average shipping costs. I recently had a chance to look into the details of how that series is constructed and have some suggested improvements.
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(I Can’t Believe I Follow this Stuff Now): Peak Pegasus Docks in China
Not quite the Flying Dutchman, Peak Pegasus and its load of US soybeans finally docks at Dalian in China.
等待果陀? – Soybean Farmer Edition
(Translation: “Waiting for Godot”) Many observers have noted that the Chinese must eventually come to the US for some of their soybean needs, as the supply of Argentine and Brazilian soybeans are depleted and American soybeans are harvested. Current futures for November 2018 do not indicate a price recovery to pre-Trump tariff war levels, even if they do come. As of today:
When Storage Does Not Save One from Low Commodity Prices
When prices are low for a storable commodity, agents (farmers or intermediaries) can wait for higher prices to sell. Of course, there is a carrying cost to storage for many commodities, like soybeans (deterioration of stock, direct storage costs, opportunity cost of capital tied up in commodity). Hence, while storage can mitigate losses, it does not necessarily eliminate economic losses that arise from persistent tariffs.
A Post in Which I Thank Donald Trump: Pork Chop Edition
I don’t pay close attention to prices of groceries, but the other day, I saw the price of pork chops and said to myself “darned if that isn’t remarkably cheap for pork chops.” So tonight’s dinner has inspired me to give thanks for DJT’s actions.