The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Category Archives: deficits
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today’s NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment
Time for an update on estimated income and price elasticities of US trade flows. These issues are important to those of us who believe that the US remains vulnerable to shifts in the rest-of-the-world’s willingness to finance the current account deficit. If you think it’s just jolly fine and likely for the US to keep on borrowing at around 6.5 percent of GDP for the indefinite future, skip this post.
Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred
The March trade figures are in at BEA, and many are surprised. Bloomberg reports:
The politics of future promises
I have been detailing concerns about meeting the pension and health care obligations of the city and county of San Diego. Although these challenges arise at the level of our local government, the problem appears to be national in scope, as a sampling of stories from PensionWatch makes clear.
The Coming (?) US Current Account Adjustment: Two Questions Inspired by Two Graphs
The IMF has recently released its Global Financial Stability report. Two figures inspired two questions from me.
New estimates of macroeconomic effects of tax changes
Berkeley Professors Christina and David Romer have an
interesting new research paper estimating the macroeconomic consequences of tax changes.
Trade adjustment via import compression or export expansion?
From Saturday’s New York Times, the case is made that the G-7’s dream scenario of global rebalancing, with more rapid growth in Europe pulling up demand for US goods, is finally underway:
The Last Throes of PoMo Macro?
Exchange rate depreciation and expenditure switching in the United States
The IMF’s April 2007 World Economic Outlook has been released — or at least part of it. One chapter, entitled Exchange Rates and the adjustment of External Imbalances [pdf], deals with a subject close to my heart.