Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Emine Boz (IMF), Nan Li (IMF) and Hongrui Zhang (IDB). The views expressed herein are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the IMF, IDB, their Executive Boards, or the managements of those organizations.
Some people are getting a little spooked by recent stock market movements. Here I offer a few thoughts.
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That’s according to Bloomberg.
The FY2019 projected deficit balloons, as the estimated “dynamic” effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act prove minor (quelle suprise!)
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
From Goldman Sachs (Hatzius, et al.) today, interpreting today’s July trade release:
The trade deficit rose to $50.1bn in July, from a revised $45.7bn in June. Total exports fell 1.0%, as the total drop in exports ($2.1bn) was comprised primarily of declines in civilian aircraft ($1.6bn) and soybeans ($0.7bn). The decline in soybeans exports likely reflects payback following a sharp increase in June ahead of Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Total imports (+0.9%) rose, reflecting increases in both petroleum imports (+3.7%) as well as nonpetroleum imports (+0.6%).
Nearly a year ago, I asked Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?. At a minimum, we know they’re back. And the IMF certainly thinks so.
Since 2017Q1. By Mr. Trump’s own metric, we’re losing. But it’s a stoopid metric for evaluating “unfair”-ness.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. An earlier version appeared in Project Syndicate.
Remember?
“Borrowing and spending by the public sector will crowd out investment and growth in the private sector.” Paul Ryan, “Path to Prosperity” (April 2012).