Since the election:
Category Archives: exchange rates
Making Sense (If Possible) of Expected Inflation and the Dollar
Five year breakeven up, dollar up.
Miran’s Manifesto
The nominated CEA chair designate, Stephen Miran, has an exposition (h/t Politico)of how protectionism and a depreciating dollar can go together. As far as I can make out, it involves massive forex intervention, possibly sterilized, along with “user fees” on foreign held-UST’s…
The Price and Income Elasticities of US Trade Flows
JW Mason asserts that, in focusing on the real exchange rate, I’m on the side of relative prices being the primary determinant of flows.
My Favorite Graph: Lagged RER-NX
Paul Krugman writes on The Dollar and the US Trade Deficit today, and reminds me of my favorite graph (makes an appearance each time I teach macro, and a version shows up in Chapter 13 of Chinn-Irwin International Economics.
How Competitive Is China?
This probably seems like a silly question, but it’s actually a hard one to answer quantitatively.
MacIver Institute Does International Trade: Be VERY Afraid
Seizing Russian Assets: If Not Now, When?
From Hess and Mott, in Foreign Policy, on stifling further Russian aggression even with Trump on the gates:
Guest Contribution: “The Diminishing Impact of Exchange Rates on China’s Exports”
Today, we’re fortunate to have Willem Thorbecke, Senior Fellow at Japan’s Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) as a guest contributor. The views expressed represent those of the author himself, and do not necessarily represent those of RIETI, or any other institutions the author is affiliated with.
US Tariff Pass-Through on Chinese Imports Is High
So be prepared. From Feng, Han, and Li (2023):