Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (University of Southern California) and Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes). This post is based on the paper of the same title.
Category Archives: exchange rates
TIPS Yield, Inflation Breakeven and Dollar Rise
Consistent with expansionary fiscal policy plus tariffs hitting a non-passive Fed reaction function.
Further Dollar Appreciation: Implications
What else would one expect from expectations of expanded budget deficits, higher incipient inflation in the context of a Taylor rule reaction function, when the currency is a safe haven asset?
The Gutting of the US Dollar, According to Vladimir Putin
From EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge channel Vladimir Putin (Feb 2024):
America’s political establishment has less respect for the U.S. dollar than our foreign adversaries.
That was made clear when Tucker Carlson recently interviewed the Russian strongman President Vladimir Putin, who clearly articulated how the uniparty in Washington is destroying America’s greatest strategic and economic asset — her currency.
Dollar Demise Predicted
Joe Biden is dethroning King Dollar in real time. The US dollar’s financial dominance is under siege from a uniquely bad combination of foreign and domestic policies, and Americans should be deeply concerned by the fallout if the dollar loses its 80-year reign as the world’s reserve currency.
Dollar Share of World FX Reserves (thru Q2)
From the IMF (9/27/2024):
Ten Year Treasury Yields, Dollar Index Down
Apparently some news:
The Ito-McCauley Database on Individual Central Bank Reserve Holdings
Hiro Ito and Robert McCauley have compiled a dataset(first discussed in this 2019 working paper) of the currency composition of international reserves over the 1999-2021 period. This dataset was used in Ito and McCauley (2020), Chinn, Ito and McCauley (2022), and Chinn, Ito and Frankel (2024).
Guest Contribution: “Exchange Rate Models are Better than You Think, and Why They Didn’t Work in the Old Days”
Today, we present a guest post written by Charles Engel, Donald D. Hester Distinguished Chair in Economics at UW Madison and Steve Pak Yeung Wu, Assistant Professor of Economics at UCSD.
“Yellen Rebuffs Trump Argument on Dollar Hurting US Manufacturing”
That’s a title of an article by Christopher Condon, in Bloomberg a few days ago. What’s the evidence? Figure 1 shows the typically referenced CPI deflated trade weighted dollar.