The IMF’s April 2007 World Economic Outlook has been released — or at least part of it. One chapter, entitled Exchange Rates and the adjustment of External Imbalances [pdf], deals with a subject close to my heart.
Category Archives: exchange rates
Maybe we can’t count on exorbitant privilege/dark matter/manna from heaven…
The new conventional wisdom is that the return foreigners obtain on U.S. assets is less than the return U.S. residents obtain on foreign assets. And that this means that the U.S. can build up a bigger foreign debt than traditional analyses; I’ve been skeptical [1], [2]. Now, we have more reason to ask how robust is the finding of a durable earnings differential in favor of U.S. investors?
Attaining Internal and External Equilibrium in China
China raises rates again. What will higher rates do?
Negative Net Income: The 2006 Balance of Payments
Most commentary on the 2006q4 current account balance release focused on the improvement in the overall balance. Little noted is the fact that 2006 is the first year in which the net income category has registered negative.
Globalization and Inflation: Thinking about Identification
Recent news articles ([1], [2]) and
blog posts (Economists View,
Big Picture) have discussed Bernanke’s March 2 speech on globalization and inflation.
Whither the Chinese Yuan?
The problem with writing blog posts in advance (I wrote most of this on the 25th) is that they may very well be rendered obsolete by the passage of events, especially when covering financial markets. Hopefully, in this case, the heightened uncertainty in emerging markets — as well as the durability of the yen carry trade — will not change the outlook for the CNY very much.
The 2007 Economic Report of the President on Exchange Rate Determination (and the Renminbi)
The 2007 Economic Report of the President was released Monday afternoon. Chapter 7, entitled “Currency Markets and Exchange Rates,” is a laudable exegesis on the determination of exchange rates.
Manufacturing, Tradables, and Trade Adjustment
In his preview of the 2007 Economic Report of the President, CEA Chair Ed Lazear presented the argument that manufacturing output is still growing.
Exchange rates, output gaps and inflation rates
Is there any role for the Taylor rule in helping predict exchange rates?
International Economics at the AEA/ASSA: Selected Items
The Allied Social Sciences Association (incorporating the AEA, the Econometric Society, the International Economics and Finance Society and many other groups) meetings took place in Chicago this last weekend. I wasn’t able to go to that many sessions, but I did attend a few related to international issues.