What should be the effect of productivity increases on the real exchange rate?
Category Archives: exchange rates
RIP, Dark Matter As Cure-All
Two recent publications should help put to rest the conjecture that there are vast pools of U.S. wealth lying overseas, ready to save the day.
Estimating U.S.-China Trade Elasticities: Some Very Preliminary Results
Do we have any idea what the CNY appreciation against the dollar will accomplish?
How Strong Is (Was) the Dollar?
An alternative view on the dollar’s strength and trend over time.
It’s not such a small world after all (and it’s getting bigger)
Taking a break from recession talk, I discuss some aspects of the progress of economic integration highlighted in a paper by Bergin and Glick presented at a SCCIE–JIMF conference on Financial and Commercial Integrations.
Two Pictures and Prospects for the Dollar
The dollar weakens. Why? For how long? Against Whom?
A closer look at the US-China trade figures…and more on the RMB
The Renminbi (RMB) is probably undervalued, according to some criteria. Would adjusting it fix the US-China trade deficit? Or the overall US trade deficit?
The enigmatic Yuan
The Yuan has not been moving much. Or has it? And does it matter much for the U.S. current account deficit
Some (delayed) reflections on whether the non-oil trade deficit stabilization at hand — or not
I was out of the country when these data were released, so I didn’t immediately write a post on the data. In any case several commentators covered the ground so well I didn’t have much to add immediately. Several forwarded the possibility of trade deficit (as a share of GDP) stabiization (see here and here), in light of the fact that the May trade release which showed a smaller than consensus deficit. In the past I made similar observations (see here). I remain hopeful, but am still not yet convinced.
Out of sample prediction of the euro, pound and CAD
Once more unto the breach.