Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate March 27th.
Category Archives: health care
Political Calculations on Soda Tax Concludes: No Externalities Internalized
Finally, Ironman at Political Calculations understands what an externality is. Instead of this:
If a deadweight loss exists, it represents the amount of economic activity that has been directly lost because of the imposition of the tax, which tells us the degree to which the city’s economy may have shrunk as a result.
Guest Contribution: “Why the Republicans Can’t Reform Health Care”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate.
(Transitory) Revealed Preferences
Here’s the health coverage implications of President Trump’s proposal to repeal Obamacare, as assessed by the CBO:
Figure 1: Effects of H.R. 1628, THE Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, on health insurance coverage of people under age 65, in millions, by calendar year. Source: CBO, Table 4.
So, at least for part of one day, the President was content to let an additional 32 million be uncovered by 2026.
Imagine…ACA Repeal and Delay
Following Senator Sasse’s suggestion to implement HR 3762, the President tweeted in support of some version of repeal and delay. What would happen?
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Distribution of Proposed Tax Cuts under BCRA
If you were wondering who exactly gets the bulk of the tax cuts, here is the answer, from the Tax Policy Center:
Better Care Reconciliation Act and Coverage Loss, Elevated Mortality Rates for Wisconsin
Estimated elevated mortality levels for the Senate bill is 26,500 for 2026, given the reduction of coverage by 22 million. CAP estimates by the state level indicate Wisconsin coverage of nonelderly will decrease by 394,100. This implies Wisconsin mortality levels will be up by about 475. (For context, 2015 Wisconsin total deaths was 51,251, so 475 constitutes a nearly 1% increase on 2015 deaths…)
Time to update this post to read: “Troubled Kentucky Man Goes on 50 State Killing Spree”. (Although KY excess mortality is only 279 in 2026, so fewer implied deaths than for Speaker Ryan’s AHCA.)
Why Drop the ACA?
A common talking point is that the ACA is imploding, or that it’s unpopular. It is useful to consult actual data and expert opinion when listening to such arguments.
Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017 Scored
Or, the GOP plan to eliminate the surplus population
Coverage Implications of the Revised AHCA
Or, “CBO Score — them’s fightin’ words!”.
From today’s CBO score of the AHCA, bottom line, 14 million more uninsured next year, and 23 million more by 2026.