As part of its ongoing efforts at helping the public understand exactly what its intentions might be, the Federal Reserve today released more detailed minutes of its October 30-31 meeting that included the Fed’s expectations for what comes next.
Category Archives: inflation
Oil, gold, the dollar, and inflation
Do the ongoing surge in gold and oil prices and slide in the dollar signal a resurgence of inflation?
Does Dollar Weakness ‘Cause’ High Oil Prices?
There’s an idea floating around that asserts that the high price of oil is — at least in part — due to the weak dollar. Does this make sense?
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.
Money creation and the Federal Reserve
There seem to be some misconceptions about the monetary consequences of actions that the Federal Reserve has taken to address liquidity needs.
Forward rates and inflation expectations
Forward rates on Treasury bonds tell an interesting story about the market’s reaction to the Fed’s interest rate cut on Tuesday.
50 it is
For the first time in 5 years, markets were actually unsure what the Fed was going to do, with yesterday’s fed funds options calling it an even chance that the Fed would settle for a 25-basis-point cut or go all the way to 50. Capital Chronicle had prepared amusing posters as to just how to interpret a 25-basis-point as opposed to a 50-basis-point cut. Fifty it was, disappointing perhaps knzn who wanted a 175-basis-point cut, but delighting economic researchers like Refet Gurkaynak and Eric Swanson who both emailed me their high spirits at finally getting another data point for what happens when the Fed surprises the markets.
Four Observations on Import and Export Prices and the Dollar
Some delayed reflections on exchange rates, trade prices, and the messages from the August data.
By how much will the Fed cut rates?
Once again we’re seeing a big divergence between what the markets expect the Fed to do and what the Fed expects the Fed to do.
Bernanke on the economic outlook
In testimony before the U.S. Congress yesterday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke continued his policy of greater openness and transparency for Federal Reserve policy, trying to lay out clearly what the Fed is most worried about.