Today we learned that through March, the Federal budget deficit was 15% larger than the corresponding point in the last fiscal year — as expected given a not particularly stimulative tax cut (so much for tax cuts paying for themselves, as Stephen Moore claimed) and the ending of spending restraints. The dollar remains at elevated levels, as interest rates have risen. The trade deficit, excluding petroleum, continues to deteriorate. As I explained to my macro class today… it’s all textbook (notes).
Category Archives: international
Trade Policy Uncertainty and World Uncertainty
If measured world uncertainty shocks cause decelerating economic growth, then Trump will be partly responsible for the global slowdown the IMF is forecasting.
Guest Contribution: “Global Growth Forecasts Shift Downward—What’s Behind the Numbers and Why It Matters”
Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Enrique Martínez-García (Senior Reserach Economist and Policy Advisor, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas). The views expressed here are those solely of the author and do not reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System. He acknowledges the contributions of Valerie Grossman, Michael Morris, Amro Shohoud, and Mark A. Wynne in preparing these comments.
Why Hasn’t the Incipient Trump-Xi Deal Shown Up in Soybean Futures?
(In honor of reader CoRev), soybean futures for May…
“A Requiem for “Blame It on Beijing”: Interpreting Rotating Global Current Account Surpluses”
Empirically Assessing “a whole world of hurt”
That’s how an unidentified White House official characterized the impact of closing the southern border.
Two Years of “Winning”: Messages from GDP, International Investment Releases
The release of the final release for GDP, and the international investment position provides an opportunity to assess progress on the trade war. I for one have gotten tired of “winning”.
UK Gross Fixed Capital Formation
Why I think the UK is in a world of hurt, regardless of where Brexit goes. It’s just a matter of how bad…
“Integration or Disintegration? The Future of Global Governance and the Global Economy”
That’s the title of the La Follette School Spring Symposium, taking place this Wednesday, 1-6PM at the Wisconsin Memorial Union, ending with:
“Workshop on International Capital Flows and Exchange Rates”
Central Bank of Ireland – ECB and IM-TCD
Workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Exchange Rates
CALL FOR PAPERS
Venue: Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
Date: September 6th, 2019