Even if Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is able to maneuver the new agreement through the parliament [0], it’s not clear to me that — even with the aid and reprofiling of debt — Greece will resume growth (see discussion O’Brien/Wonkblog). That’s true even though there has been noticeable adjustment in production costs in Greece.
Category Archives: international
Possible scenarios for Greece
It’s very clear that two things have to happen from here. First, Greece needs relief from its mountain of debt, and second, the country needs to find a way to become more competitive economically.
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Some Recent Research on Exchange Rates
Here is some interesting work I’ve seen recently in Paris and Cambridge, MA.
The International Aspects of the Employment Release
The headline number for nonfarm payroll employment was decent [1], and although there are worrisome aspects, I think the key take-away is the fact that manufacturing employment is slowing much more than overall. To the extent that manufactured goods proxies for tradables, I think caution is in order with respect to monetary tightening. And yet, I read headlines reporting that the “Fed is on track to raise rates…”[Sparshott/RTE WSJ].
Anil Kashyap on the Greek crisis
University of Chicago Professor Anil Kashyap has a helpful summary of the Greek financial crisis.
“The Global Trade Slowdown: A New Normal?”
This is the title of a newly released VoxEU ebook, edited by Bernard Hoekman.
The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.
Renegotiating Greece’s debt
Here are my thoughts on options for handling Greece’s debt.
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“Answering the TPA Critics Head-On”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99.
“A Program for Greece: Follow the IMF’s Research”
Today, we are fortunate to present a guest contribution written by Ashoka Mody, Charles and Marie Visiting Professor in International Economic Policy, Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University. Previously, he was Deputy Director in the International Monetary Fund’s Research and European Departments.
“The Top Ten Reasons Why Trade Agreements Should Not Cover Currency Manipulation”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.