Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.
Category Archives: international
Exchange Rate Regimes and the Global Financial Cycle
Relevant or Irrelevant?
Currency Misalignment: A Reprise
As the Congress debates currency manipulation [1], it occurs to me useful to reprise my earlier primer on currency misalignment (first published in March 2010), where misalignment is one component of some definitions of currency manipulation.
Guest Contribution: “New Improved Trade Agreements”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard University, and former Member of the Council of Economic Advisers, 1997-99. This post is an extended version of an earlier column at Project Syndicate.
Trade (Head)Winds
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2013
The Chinn-Ito index revised and updated to 2013 is now available here.
Foreign Reserve Accumulation Tails Off
And actually decline, in dollar terms.
Divergences: Interest Rates, Nominal, Real, Short, and Long
I’ve been wrapping up some long term projects (not planned as long term — they just took longer than expected) on interest rate parity and term spreads, and that spurred me to look at current patterns in interest rates. Some quick observations: interest rates remain higher in emerging markets than in core industrial countries. So too are real rates are higher despite higher inflation rates. And term spreads are larger in the US than other countries.
Guest Contribution: “Chinese Outwards Mercantilism – the Art and Practice of Bundling”
Today we are fortunate to have a guest contribution written by Joshua Aizenman (USC and NBER), Yothin Jinjarak (Victoria Business School), and Huanhuan Zheng (Chinese University of Hong Kong). This post is based upon the paper of the same title.
How Much More Dollar Appreciation?
One important factor in the growth prospects for the US economy is the trajectory of the dollar. [1] If the dollar stabilizes at March levels, US economic growth might rebound. On the other hand, continued appreciation bodes ill. Based on history over the floating rate era, the expected duration of an appreciation is about 5 years (depreciations about 2 years). The current surge in the dollar has only been going on for only slightly over half a year, although when dated from the trough of 2011Q2, it’s been going on just a bit over 4 years. Either way, by this metric, it appears that there is still some additional way to go before the dollar peaks.