The selloff in the stock market last week was attributed by some to inflation worries — namely that persistent inflation means a reduction in the Fed Funds rate is less likely than the market had until recently believed.
Category Archives: international
The April Trade Release: Good and Ambiguous News
The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Financial Openness around the World
What do our indicators tell us?
More on Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Adjustment
Time for an update on estimated income and price elasticities of US trade flows. These issues are important to those of us who believe that the US remains vulnerable to shifts in the rest-of-the-world’s willingness to finance the current account deficit. If you think it’s just jolly fine and likely for the US to keep on borrowing at around 6.5 percent of GDP for the indefinite future, skip this post.
Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred
The March trade figures are in at BEA, and many are surprised. Bloomberg reports:
The Empirics of Chinese Trade and Implications of Yuan Appreciation
In previous posts I’ve discussed some of the estimates of aggregate trade elasticities. Some new work presented at a recent IMF conference on Chinese trade suggests that we may need to revise some of our views on the efficacy of yuan appreciation for inducing expenditure switching.
Four Years after “Mission Accomplished”
I thought that it was proper and fitting to evaluate the state of affairs in Iraq four years after President Bush declared the end of major military combat operations in Iraq.
Further implications of the productivity slowdown for the dollar
In a previous post, I noted that the slowdown in economic growth in the US relative to rest-of-OECD would have a number implications for the dollar’s value in nominal and real terms.
The Coming (?) US Current Account Adjustment: Two Questions Inspired by Two Graphs
The IMF has recently released its Global Financial Stability report. Two figures inspired two questions from me.
Trade adjustment via import compression or export expansion?
From Saturday’s New York Times, the case is made that the G-7’s dream scenario of global rebalancing, with more rapid growth in Europe pulling up demand for US goods, is finally underway: