With recession calls becoming more frequent ([1], [2], [3], [4], [5]) it might pay to revisit the indicators that the NBER looks at in determining the turning points in recessions (The fact that NBER put up some new recession-dating-FAQs just a couple days ago might be a leading indicator of sorts).
Category Archives: recession
Economic indicators take a turn for the worse
No cheer for the New Year from the numbers released this week.
The bears must wait another quarter
Currently available data on consumer spending make it very unlikely that we’ll see negative real GDP growth for the fourth quarter.
Make that Four Reasons Why Recession May be Averted
Sudeep Reddy provides five reasonsWhy Economists Are Betting A Recession Won’t Happen. These reasons are ably summarized in the WSJ Real Time Economics Blog post Five Reasons Recession May Be Averted:
November auto sales down modestly
Weakness in autos, but it’s not as bad as it could be.
Has Industrial Production Peaked?
And what would it mean if it had?
Risk premia creeping higher
Since Halloween, financial markets seem to be getting spooked again.
Tales from the Tails of the WSJ Forecast
The interesting aspects of the survey of forecasts conducted by the Wall Street Journal (data here) are not in the means (or medians), but in the tails.
Musings on the Trade Release and Consumption Theory
Last week’s trade release induced some wide-ranging thoughts, that spurred more questions than answers. In an experimental post, I’ll pose some questions that I hope readers will help me answer.
The Credit Crunch Continues, and the Conundrum Is History
The credit crunch seems to be worsening, rather than lessening, and the conundrum seems to have disappeared.