A week ago I reviewed the reasons why $90-a-barrel oil by itself would not be enough to cause an economic recession. As oil prices charged up to $96 on Friday, a reporter asked me at what price I’d change my mind.
Category Archives: recession
Some Observations on the GDP Release
The BEA’s NIPA release had some surprises for many. Here are some aspects of the release that I find surprising.
$90 a barrel: Is it time to start worrying about the oil price shock of 2007?
Oil shocks in 1973, 1979, and 1990 were each followed by a recession. But we saw the price of oil climb from $20 a barrel in 2002 to $75 a year ago, and so far it has not resulted in a significant economic downturn. What’s different now, and can we count on it to continue?
Have Net Exports Ever Prevented the U.S. from Going into Recession?
First, a look at what the blogosphere is thinking about recession.
Distressing Picture of the Day
From the IMF’s September Global Financial Stability Report:
The World Inverted: Does It Matter That Yield Curves Are Sloping Downward?
In glancing at Table 4 the last issue of the Economist (sub. req.), I was surprised that so many countries had downward sloping yield curves. Should we worry?
Does a recession matter?
That’s the question posed yesterday by Calculated Risk. Here’s how I’d answer it.
Not all the news is bad
We’ve been dwelling here quite a bit on the bleak incoming housing data. But I have to admit that I’m not seeing that spilling over so far into some of the other key economic indicators.
What would be the implications of stagflation for the dollar?
The dollar is declining, with no apparent support. That’s because the recessionary factors seem to be dominating. But a reporter’s question about what factors might support the dollar prompted me to think about other influences that might work in a direction opposite the forces alluded to in the conventional wisdom.
The President Prognosticates (on the Economy)
From the LA Times: