That is to say, is Post-Modernist Macroeconomic Policy over?
From Postmodernism:
Category Archives: recession
Employment in March: Comparisons across Measures, Time, and Levels vs. Growth
The March employment figures have almost universally been hailed as evidence of a strong labor market, given how the announced value exceeded expectations, and the fact that previous months values were revised upward (WSJ1, WSJ2, Reuters, Bloomberg; contrarian opinion at Big Picture, Capital Spectator). (Jim Hamilton has already discussed how likely these figures are to be revised, in light of other complementary data.) Without disagreeing, I think it behooves us to consider other ways of looking at the data.
About that downside
As always, first-rate economic analysis from Fed Chair Ben Bernanke today, and first-rate coverage from Mark Thoma and Kash Mansori, among others.
Disappointing numbers on inflation and retail sales
Macroblog and Calculated Risk had some discouraging graphs yesterday.
Negative Net Income: The 2006 Balance of Payments
Most commentary on the 2006q4 current account balance release focused on the improvement in the overall balance. Little noted is the fact that 2006 is the first year in which the net income category has registered negative.
The Term Spread, Cross Country
How does the term spread correlate with recession in other economies?
The January Trade Balance: Reading the Tea Leaves
Are declining capital imports growth rates an indicator of recession?
New feature: Econbrowser faces the data
We’ve added a couple of new features to the sidebar.
Recession watch
Recent data leave me significantly more bearish than I was a month ago.
The Fundamentals Are…
The equity indices take a dive. Is this in spite of — or because of — the fundamentals?