Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis told us that first-quarter real GDP grew not at the anemic 1.3% annual growth rate as was originally reported in the “advance” estimate given to us at the end of April, but instead was a barely-positive 0.6% as now claimed in the “preliminary” 2007:Q1 estimates. So what’s worse than we thought?
Category Archives: recession
Messages from the GDP Preliminary Release
GDP growth was revised down, as expected, in today’s NIPA preliminary GDP release. At 0.6% q/q growth SAAR was below Bloomberg consensus of 0.8%. But even more revealing is the pattern in recent revisions; in addition, trade adjustment looks a bit further off.
Economics of the Great Depression
I was honored to be included among those interviewed for East Carolina Professor Randy Parker’s new book, Economics of the Great Depression.
Tales from the WSJ Survey of Forecasts
The results of the Wall Street Journal’s recent survey of forecasts were discussed in an article with the curious title “The Economy Is Clawing Back, but Not Much”.
Deciding what to worry about
Oops. Or Trade Deficit Stabilization Deferred
The March trade figures are in at BEA, and many are surprised. Bloomberg reports:
Consumption smoothing and economic slowdowns
How alarming is it that 200% of 2007:Q1 GDP growth came from consumption spending?
Recession probability index rises to 16.9
The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported today that U.S. real GDP grew at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, moving our recession probability index up to 16.9%. This post provides some background on how that index is constructed and what the latest move up might signify.
Current economic conditions improve
Let’s admit it– the other shoe is not yet dropping.
The Coming (?) US Current Account Adjustment: Two Questions Inspired by Two Graphs
The IMF has recently released its Global Financial Stability report. Two figures inspired two questions from me.