Can high-flying stocks be reconciled with an inverted yield curve? David Rosenberg of Merrill Lynch, via Felix Salmon and Business Week thinks “it is highly doubtful that both asset classes can be getting the story right.” But here’s one scenario under which both markets in fact might be telling the same story.
Category Archives: recession
Seasonals in new home sales
New home sales could be worse. But don’t overlook the seasonals and the fundamentals.
Further reflections on productivity and compensation trends
Another way to look at the relationship between productivity and real compensation.
The labor market and the incipient slowdown
Some other aspects of the employment release in context.
More thoughts on the housing slowdown
How concerned should we be?
Dating business cycle turning points
Thanks much to Menzie for holding down the fort while I was away last week. Now that I’m back, I’d like to weigh in on the issue of when did the recession of 2001 begin, a topic on which Menzie, Greg Mankiw, Steve Verdon, Michael Mandel, and Brad DeLong all commented last week.
The yield curve: Mid-August 2006
What to make of the newest inversion?
The 2001 recession revisited
With revised data, when did the last recession begin?
Could it be that we’re already in a recession? Lessons from the last episode
There’s a lot of talk about recession these days, despite the fairly rapid average growth of GDP in the past few quarters. Krugman (via DeLong) observes a slowdown is coming that might feel a lot like a recession. DeLong considers whether Fed policy has already raised rates to such a degree a recession is inevitable. Roubini bravely cites probabilities. My colleague James Hamilton provides a contrasting opinion, based upon his academic work with Chauvet [pdf].
A pause it shall be
The last month has been something of a cliffhanger for Fed watchers. But today the market seemed to make up its mind.