November U.S. light vehicle sales were 2.8% higher than last year. Sounds good, until you take a closer look.
Category Archives: recession
The yield curve and foreign purchases of U.S. debt
A few weeks ago I discussed some new research that suggests that the current negative spread between long-term and short-term yields may be a little less worrisome than earlier studies had led us to conclude, to the extent that the negative spread in part results from an unusually low term premium on U.S. bonds rather than an expectation of future declines in short-term yields. One factor that may be depressing that term premium is foreign holdings of U.S. securities.
Home sales down further
Data on October new home sales released yesterday by the Census Bureau suggest that I may be proved to have been wrong in thinking that new home sales had already hit bottom.
Housing: speculative bubble or fundamentals?
Caclulated Risk had some interesting observations this week about why forecasts for housing differ so widely across analysts.
Will the Dollar Plunge? Would that Be So Bad?
Yesterday’s dollar plunge unnerved markets. What’s the likelihood of a sustained, drastic decline?
Forecasts Then and Now: A Cautionary Tale
The White House released its midterm forecast on Tuesday. Some thoughts on forecasts around turning points.
The yield curve and the term premium
Some new studies suggest that the yield curve inversion might not be quite as ominous as some of us have been assuming.
Skepticism about the Business Fixed Investment Handoff
One view of how GDP growth can be sustained in the wake of negative residential investment growth is to assert that business fixed investment picks up the slack. If this happens, then the adjustment of construction employment need not be too abrupt.
Third quarter growth slows to a crawl
As expected, GDP growth became even weaker in 2006:Q3.
Friday the thirteenth not so scary
The latest data on retail sales, tax receipts, and consumer sentiment all look consistent with the soft landing scenario.