If one wants to be taken seriously in the world of policy analysis, one should at least use an internally consistent framework. This consideration, apparently, has not troubled Mr. Riedl.
Category Archives: recession
More thoughts on what to expect from the Fed
There is disagreement within the FOMC. How will it be resolved?
Will the Fed do more?
If conditions deteriorate further, I believe the answer is yes.
“Future Recession Risks”
That’s the title of a new FRBSF Economic Letter. From Future Recession Risks, by Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda:
An unstable economic environment has rekindled talk of a double-dip recession. The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index provides data for predicting the probability of a recession but is limited by the weight assigned to its indicators and the varying efficacy of those indicators over different time horizons. Statistical experiments with LEI data can mitigate these limitations and suggest that a recessionary relapse is a significant possibility sometime in the next two years.
Current economic conditions
Last week’s new economics data were a mixed bag. But on balance I’d have to say I’m more discouraged than when the week began.
Options for monetary stimulus
The latest economic data have surely warranted a downward revision in the Federal Reserve’s assessment of near-term economic performance. It therefore might be a good time to review the steps the Fed could take if it wishes to provide further economic stimulus.
About that recovery you ordered
“We have met the enemy and he is us,” Pogo used to say. Well, we’ve also now met the recovery, and he is ugly.
Update on the bumpy recovery
I was curious to take a look at how Mike Dueker’s Business Cycle Index and other measures assess the current situation.
No double dip
Although many people are concerned about the possibility of a second economic downturn, I continue to see an economy that is growing, albeit significantly more slowly than we would have wanted.
Jobless recoveries
Also in town for last week’s International Symposium on Forecasting was Bill Gavin from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. I had an interesting discussion with him about changes over time in U.S. employment dynamics that I wanted to share with our readers.