Just in case you were still wondering.
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Category Archives: Trade Policy
The Return of Global Imbalances (As Foretold)
Nearly a year ago, I asked Are Global Imbalances a Source of Concern?. At a minimum, we know they’re back. And the IMF certainly thinks so.
Who Will Help the Hogs?
Unlike soybeans, I’ve seen no rebound in hog prices (front month futures) with the announcement of the $12 billion farm bailout:
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Why Stop at $12 Billion?
The losses incurred by the ag sector might already exceed the size of the ag sector bailout proposed by Trump. One constraint is the WTO.
Credit: Russell Hodin, via Ian Bremmer. [added 7/26, 1:34PM Pacific]
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At Business Cycle Frequencies, Macro Dominates in Trade Flows
Just a reminder, the Chinese have an instrument we do not; the question is whether they dare use it:
Pork Exports to China Zero’d Out?
According to Prof. Mary Lovely, trade economist at Syracuse University:
“In recent weeks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported zero weekly export sales of pork to China. … So our exports to the country have pretty much collapsed.”
Trump Provides Another Event Analysis: Pandering to the Farmers
USDA announced some $12 billion of suppport for agriculture today (partly via resurrecting the activities of the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Besides it being potentially WTO-inconsistent (I think it fits into at least the amber box), one characterization of the measure is:
“It would be a band-aid – how do you decide who gets what?”
The Last Post on July 2018 Soybean Futures
Because they expire today! And at this time, barring transport costs, etc., the futures and spot prices should converge. At 814, they are down 22.4% from levels recorded in late May.
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“The (Import) Taxes of August”
(With apologies to Barbara Tuchman.)
From Bloomberg, “U.S.-China Trade Talks Grind to a Halt”, in the wake of the announcement of $200 billion additional in taxable imports:
High-level trade talks between the U.S. and China have ground to a halt as the Trump administration threatens to escalate a trade war that shows little sign of abating, according to five people familiar with the matter.
Under what conditions does “Trade Is war but by another means” make sense?
That’s a comment made by an Econbrowser reader. Initially, I thought this was the stupidest thing that had been written since Don Luskin decried recession doomsayers in September of 2008. Upon reflection, I still think it’s pretty stupid, but the statement could be better re-written as “Trade can be war by other means.”