Just a reminder, the Chinese have an instrument we do not; the question is whether they dare use it:
Category Archives: Trade Policy
Pork Exports to China Zero’d Out?
According to Prof. Mary Lovely, trade economist at Syracuse University:
“In recent weeks, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has reported zero weekly export sales of pork to China. … So our exports to the country have pretty much collapsed.”
Trump Provides Another Event Analysis: Pandering to the Farmers
USDA announced some $12 billion of suppport for agriculture today (partly via resurrecting the activities of the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC). Besides it being potentially WTO-inconsistent (I think it fits into at least the amber box), one characterization of the measure is:
“It would be a band-aid – how do you decide who gets what?”
The Last Post on July 2018 Soybean Futures
Because they expire today! And at this time, barring transport costs, etc., the futures and spot prices should converge. At 814, they are down 22.4% from levels recorded in late May.
Continue reading
“The (Import) Taxes of August”
(With apologies to Barbara Tuchman.)
From Bloomberg, “U.S.-China Trade Talks Grind to a Halt”, in the wake of the announcement of $200 billion additional in taxable imports:
High-level trade talks between the U.S. and China have ground to a halt as the Trump administration threatens to escalate a trade war that shows little sign of abating, according to five people familiar with the matter.
Under what conditions does “Trade Is war but by another means” make sense?
That’s a comment made by an Econbrowser reader. Initially, I thought this was the stupidest thing that had been written since Don Luskin decried recession doomsayers in September of 2008. Upon reflection, I still think it’s pretty stupid, but the statement could be better re-written as “Trade can be war by other means.”
The Administration Proposes Another $200 bn Taxable Imports of Chinese Goods
The announcement of proposed items is here. From the announcement:
USTR and the interagency Section 301 Committee carefully reviewed the public comments and the testimony from the public hearing. USTR and the Section 301 Committee also carefully reviewed the extent to which the tariff subheadings in the April 6, 2018 notice include products containing industrially significant technology, including technologies and products related to China’s “Made in China 2025” industrial policy program.
Steel Prices Pre- and Post-Section 232 Tariffs
Reader Bruce Hall writes:
Just noticed that steel prices have generally fallen over the past 6 months. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/steel?countrycode=xx . …
Mr. Hall seemingly links to a stock price index, rather than the price of steel. No matter; here are two relevant series, as compiled by the St. Louis Fed.
Continue reading
Notes from the Ag Trade War: Soybean Futures
Soybean futures prices for July have been falling since early March, ever since Mr. Trump announced imminent Section 232 sanctions on steel and aluminum imports. Is the drop coincidental, weather/harvest condition driven, or trade policy driven?
Continue reading
Data Regarding the Proposition Soybean Tariffs Won’t Matter for US Soybean Prices
Some observers claimed the fungibility of soybeans would mean little impact on US soybean prices. Unless the Bloomberg terminals are being hacked by the Russians…
Continue reading