Spreads relative to 3 months continue to decline.
Source: BondSuperMart.com. On the run yields.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
The Left Coast Ensemble Presents “Artemisia”
The world premiere (in chamber version) of the opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand with the Left Coast Ensemble. Update with review by SF Classical Voice.
National Security Motivations for Protection, and Agricultural Policy Determinants
Given recent developments in the use of Section 232 in steel, aluminum, possibly uranium and automobiles, as well as the increasingly expensive bailouts of the ag sector, it behooves us to see some earlier perspectives on the use of such protectionist and interventionist measures, as provided by Peter Navarro.
Inversion (Again)!
Figure 1: Treasury 10yr-3mo spread (blue), 10yr-2yr (red), 5yr-3mo (teal), in %. Source: Fed via FRED, US Treasury.
Figure 2: Treasury 10yr-3mo spread (blue), 10yr-2yr (red), 5yr-3mo (teal), in %, in 2019. Source: Fed via FRED, US Treasury.
Over the last month, the 10yr-3mo spread has averaged 4 bps — so not quite inversion on a monthly basis.
Internal IRS Memo on Whether IRS Can Refuse Congressional Subpoena of a Tax Return
Some Scary Graphs: Manufacturing
Some NBER BCDC key indicators have peaked, as noted in this post. The more volatile manufacturing sector is showing stress as well.
Figure 1: Employment in manufacturing (blue), aggregate hours of nonsupervisory and production workers in manufacturing (teal), and manufacturing production (red), all in logs, 2019M01=0. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve via FRED, and author’s calculations.
Phill Swagel to Head CBO
That’s the news, according to Roll Call:
Senate and House budget leaders have chosen Phillip L. Swagel, a University of Maryland economist and former Treasury official in the George W. Bush administration, as the next director of the Congressional Budget Office, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions.
For CoRev: Waiting for Soybeans to Break 800
Winning!
Caligula Trump Asks Who Will Rid Me of These Troublesome Economists
I have been remiss in not bringing people’s attention to this purge. From Politico:
Economists in the Agriculture Department’s research branch say the Trump administration is retaliating against them for publishing reports that shed negative light on White House policies, spurring an exodus that included six of them quitting the department on a single day in late April.
If you do not see a pattern in the bullying of Census, the extreme nontransparency of rules at BIS (Bureau of Industry and Security), and the attempt at Board-stuffing at the Fed, then you are blind.
A Re-Run: “Who Will Relent – Xi or Trump? On Actual and Perceived Payoff Matrices”
“Re-run” is an archaic phrase from my generation. It means to replay a previously recorded and broadcast television show. Here, this “rerun” seems appropos. I think that the cost to Xi of backing down is even greater given Trump’s tariff threat came close to the day of the 100th Anniversary of the May 4th Movement — a sensitive occasion for the CCP. From an August 2018 post.
Notable differences. US GDP fundamentals less robust than in August. Chinese growth fundamentals (in the short run) are stronger. Remember this despite the fact that that Liu He is joining the negotiating team coming to Washington, D.C.