When each Week, Peak Excess Deaths Gets Pushed Further Out
Figure 1: Excess fatalities, 9/30 vintage (purple), 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC series which are bounded below at zero. Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Covid-19 fatalities, 9/30 vintage (purple), 9/23 vintage (blue), 9/16 vintage (tan), 9/9 vintage (green), 9/2 vintage (red), 8/25 vintage (brown). Source: CDC , various vintages, and author’s calculations.
In fact, both of the CDC series – Covid-19 Fatalities and Excess Fatalities – drop off dramatically in recent weeks. If you didn’t read the notes attached to the CDC spreadsheet, you’d conclude that we’ve won! But inspection of the spreadsheet reveals notes that indicate that the most recent data is incomplete. In fact, as I show in this post, about the four most recent weeks worth of data are going to be substantially revised. I shade this period in green in the below graph. A hint that this is a substantial problem is provided by comparing the trajectory of the unofficial tally compiled by the Our World in Data, which indicates a much smaller decline (figure 3).
The current vintage’s August 15th observations is moved up from the previous vintage so that excess fatalities are essentially flath through the 15th. CDC designated Covid-19 deaths for the week ending August 15 rose 145 going from previous to latest vintage; excess deaths rose 942 from the previous vintage to the current.
These observations are important to keep in mind when inspecting Figure 3.
Figure 3: Weekly fatalities due to Covid-19 as reported to CDC for weeks ending on indicated dates (black), excess fatalities calculated as actual minus expected (teal), fatalities as tabulated by Our World in Data (dark red). Note excess fatalities differ from CDC excess fatalities series which are bounded below at zero. Light green shading denotes CDC data that are likely to be revised. Source: CDC 9/30/2020 vintage, OurWorldinData accessed 9/30/2020 and author’s calculations.
Hence, excess fatalities over the last month might or might not be falling.
“n fact, both of the CDC series – Covid-19 Fatalities and Excess Fatalities – drop off dramatically in recent weeks. If you didn’t read the notes attached to the CDC spreadsheet, you’d conclude that we’ve won!”
Of course our Usual Suspects never bother with the footnotes so they declared victory weeks ago.
” hint that this is a substantial problem is provided by comparing the trajectory of the unofficial tally compiled by the Our World in Data, which indicates a much smaller decline”
The last time CoRev talked about “cycles” with respect to this series, I asked him if he wasn’t sure might be seeing the making of a sine curve. CoRev got all angry again probably because he has no clue what a sine curve is.
pgl CoRev got all angry again probably because he has no clue what a sine curve is.
But he might be familiar with the CoSine. 🙂
Jack Burkman and Jacob Wohl — a President Trump-loving duo who were behind a series of notoriously outlandish schemes to smear Trump’s opponents — face felony charges for their alleged involvement in robocalls that spread false claims about voting by mail. Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel unveiled the charges Thursday. Among them are charges of voter intimidation and conspiracy to commit an election law violation. “Any effort to interfere with, intimidate or intentionally mislead Michigan voters will be met with swift and severe consequences,” Nessel said. “This effort specifically targeted minority voters in an attempt to deter them from voting in the November election.” “We’re all well aware of the frustrations caused by the millions of nuisance robocalls flooding our cell phones and landlines each day, but this particular message poses grave consequences for our democracy and the principles upon which it was built,” she continued. “Michigan voters are entitled to a full, free and fair election in November and my office will not hesitate to pursue those who jeopardize that.”
Applause to the Michigan AG. Next up is for him to go after Bruce Hall for all of his COVID-19 disinformation.
October 1, 2020
Cases ( 7,486,513)
Deaths ( 212,451)
Cases ( 6,391,960)
Deaths ( 99,804)
Cases ( 743,216)
Deaths ( 77,646)
Cases ( 577,505)
Deaths ( 32,019)
Cases ( 460,178)
Deaths ( 42,202)
Cases ( 295,530)
Deaths ( 9,586)
Cases ( 160,280)
Deaths ( 9,316)
Cases ( 85,414)
Deaths ( 4,634)
October 1, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
US ( 641)
UK ( 621)
Mexico ( 601)
France ( 490)
Canada ( 246)
Germany ( 114)
India ( 72)
China ( 3)
Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 9.2%, 10.4% and 5.5% for the United Kingdom, Mexico and France respectively. These ratios are high, but have been significantly higher.
October 1, 2020
Chinese mainland reports 11 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland registered 11 new COVID-19 cases on Wednesday, all from overseas, the National Health Commission said on Thursday.
This is the 46th consecutive day without domestic transmissions reported on the Chinese mainland. No deaths linked with the coronavirus were reported over the past 24 hours while 16 patients were discharged from hospitals.
The total number of confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland stands at 85,414, with a death toll of 4,634, while 363 asymptomatic patients are under medical observation.
Chinese mainland new imported cases
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since May 17. There has been no community or domestic coronavirus case for 46 days. Since June began there have been only 2 limited community clusters of infections, in Beijing and Urumqi in Xinjiang, both of which were contained with mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, and both outbreaks ended in a few weeks. Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine. Asymptomatic cases are all quarantined.
The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent. There are as a result 186 active imported coronavirus cases on the Chinese mainland, but of which only 2 cases are classed as serious or critical.
October 1, 2020
Cases ( 494,607)
Deaths ( 33,266)
Deaths per million ( 1,710)
Care must continue to be taken since new infections persist though at a relatively low level.
October 1, 2020
Cases ( 132,870)
Deaths ( 9,480)
Deaths per million ( 1,375)
New infections persist.
The structure of the presidential debate, in a medical clinic, was an obvious public health failing. Because we are so little capable of looking to others to learn, we had not learned of the problems with the debate structure. Look to the contrasting way in which the opening of and addresses to the United Nations was conducted and understand the problem presented by the format of the debate.
October 2, 2020
Cases ( 7,500,703)
Deaths ( 212,727)
October 3, 2020
Cases ( 263,983)
Deaths ( 1,679)
Deaths per million ( 183)
July 4, 2020
Cases ( 29,170)
Deaths ( 330)
Deaths per million ( 36)
Having apparently approached a containment of the coronavirus in June, the Israeli government incautiously opened schools and businesses, and the result has been a persistent community infection spread contributing to what are now 263,983 cases in the small country as compared to 85,434 in all through all of mainland China.
Israel has unfortunately more than three-times the number of coronavirus cases in mainland China. Paul Krugman noticed the Israeli “disaster” on September 14 when there were 160,000 coronavirus cases. The persisting difficulty in limiting a new spread of infections in so highly developed a country has become startling to me. Obviously there is a profound public health failing, but in what way?
October 3, 2020
Cases ( 113,926)
Deaths ( 2,128)
Deaths per million ( 196)
Cases ( 5,780)
Deaths ( 122)
Deaths per million ( 11)
Where the Dominican Republic has had the fastest per capita GDP growth in the Americas since 1971, Cuba has been continually beset and limited by United States economic sanctions. Cuba however has built excellent public health infrastructure, reflected in longer life expectancy and lower infant mortality than in the US or Dominican Republic and I think reflected in the way in which the spread of the coronavirus has been limited in Cuba relative to countries all through the Americas.