Just in case you were wondering.
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty, Post-Fed Critique, Pre-$500 billion China Tariffs, Pre-Trump/Playboy Tapes
I expect a downward revision tomorrow for today’s value, but tomorrow’s value?
The Ten year-Seven Year Treasury Spread
Some see this as inversion imminent.
World Economic Outlook Update: On Trade Policy Risks
From Maury Obstfeld, IMF, Chief Economist, today:
…the risk that current trade tensions escalate further—with adverse effects on confidence, asset prices, and investment—is the greatest near-term threat to global growth. Global current account imbalances are set to widen owing to the United States’ relatively high demand growth, possibly exacerbating frictions. The United States has initiated trade actions affecting a broad group of countries, and faces retaliation or retaliatory threats from China, the European Union, its NAFTA partners, and Japan, among others. Our modeling suggests that if current trade policy threats are realized and business confidence falls as a result, global output could be about 0.5 percent below current projections by 2020. As the focus of global retaliation, the United States finds a relatively high share of its exports taxed in global markets in such a broader trade conflict, and it is therefore especially vulnerable.
Homosocial Reproduction and Economic Policy Formulation in the White House
Word is that Stephen Moore is in the mix for NEC staff. I think he would fit in perfectly in the Trump White House (hence the reference to Rosabeth Moss Kantor’s concept of “homosocial reproduction”). After all, NEC Chair Kudlow just said the budget deficit is shrinking. Now, consider these instances of Mr. Moore’s sheer mendacity (or, I admit, it could be statistical incompetence):
Just Implementing Laws, and Following Orders, June 18, 1944
Historian Michael Beschloss just posted this picture, from 64 74 years ago today.
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And in Ohio…Contemplating 25% Tariffs on Soybeans
From Brown, Sheldon,AEDE Agricultural Report 2018-001, May 2018:
Through calculations made based on a representative west central Ohio farm, and assuming an average degree of Chinese substitution between U.S. and Brazilian soybean import, it is estimated that average net income per year (2018-2024) would drop from $63,577 to $26,107 under the proposed tariff, which translates to a 59% decrease in net farm income.
The US tariffs on steel and Chinese retaliation induces this effect through “higher machinery costs, lower corn, soybean and pork prices for U.S. agricultural producers”.
Another Thing I Thought I’d Never Have to Explain on Econbrowser: Confidence Interval
Mr. Steven Kopits takes issue with the Harvard School of Public Health led study’s point estimate of (4645) and confidence interval (798, 8498) for Puerto Rico excess fatalities post-Maria thusly:
Does Harvard stand behind the study, or not?
Garbage and Non-Garbage Estimates: Puerto Rico Edition
Since the Puerto Rican government ceased publishing mortality data in February, there has been a debate over the death toll arising from Hurrican Maria. The official death toll, focusing on direct deaths, remains at 64. However, starting in November, a number of scholars attempted to gain further insight into the extent of the human disaster in the Commonwealth. One commentator has labeled another study “garbage”. What is the import of these competing analyses?
Measured Economic Policy Uncertainty, 4 June 2018
It’s elevated. Hard to say exactly why. Hard to say why it isn’t higher.
Figure 1: US Economic Policy Uncertainty index (blue) and centered 7-day moving average (bold red). Source: policyuncertainty.com accessed 4 June 2018, and author’s calculations.