For soybeans, among other things.
Source: Bloomberg. Notes: 300-foot plastic bags sit filled with soybeans and corn. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
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Category Archives: Uncategorized
Which Observation Is Not Like the Others: US Inward FDI Again
Plotting nominal dollar value of inward FDI understates the collapse in inflows. Here is the ratio to GDP, and — considering how FDI covaries with the stock market’s level — the real S&P 500 (As I recall, working on this topic during the dot.com boom, the dollar’s strength was the other important factor — but that hasn’t changed much over the last three years.)
Out of Sample Regression Prediction of Mass Shooting Fatalities
Does a Trump dummy “work”? Reader sam writes:
i think you’re putting too much weight into too few observations.
Some things to make your analysis more convincing 1) show the if predictive accuracy increased with a trump dummy OUT OF SAMPLE or 2) try placing the ‘trump dummy’ variable a few months before or a few months after and see if that changes the coefs. i doubt you’ll see much of an effect.
Three Graphs and a Regression Equation
And we are less than one-third of the way through November.
Why Kobach Lost
This graph of Kansas employment during the Brownback years is suggestive.
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Time Series Evidence on the Minimum Wage Impact in Minnesota vs. Wisconsin
- Is the partial derivative of fast food employment with respect to the minimum wage negative? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage decrease young adult employment? Maybe, maybe not.
- Does a higher minimum wage raise fast food restaurant prices? Not noticeably.
These conclusions (reported in this working paper written by Louis Johnston and me) stand in contrast to those obtained by Noah Williams, and reported in this CROWE Policy Brief.
Scenes from Artemisia: An Opera of Passion, Betrayal and Art
This Saturday, the Center for Contemporary Opera presents scenes from an opera composed by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand.
Mass Shooting Casualties through 28 October
Regression 1982q4-2018q3:
f = -18.52 + 0.028pop + 5.182trump
Adj.R2 = 0.18, N = 144, DW = 2.07, bold denotes significance at 10% msl using HAC robust standard errors.
Where f denotes mass shooting fatalities, pop is population in millions, trump is a dummy variable for Trump administration.
One can interpret this as follows: a Trump administration quarter is associated with 5.2 greater fatalities from mass shootings, or 20.8 on an annualized basis. (Over 1982q4-16q4, the average frequency per quarter is 4.876). Inclusion of a deterministic time trend yields a negative coefficient on population, and a trump coefficient (4.093) significant at 11% msl.
Strong GDP growth, weak fundamentals
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.5% annual rate in the third quarter. That’s the second quarter in a row that the number has come in above the 3.1% average for the U.S. economy over the last 70 years, and is well above the 2.2% average rate since the recovery from the Great Recession began
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Guest Contribution: “China’s Q3 GDP Reportedly Slowed to 6.5%. Or Is It 6.4%?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.