The Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development touts employment growth. Here is a graph comparing reported employment and Walker’s August 2013 promise (which reader Alan Goldhammer reminds me of).
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Mass Shooting Casualties in America as of October 2
Figure 1: Cumulative sum of mass shooting casualties, beginning in 1982M08; deaths (red), wounded (pink). October observation for data through 10/2. Source: Mother Jones.
At Least Nero Fiddled
Source: The Hill.
The View from 2012: The Hiatus in Per Capita US GDP
If one was looking back at the data available a half a decade ago, an observer (not me) might have concluded that there was a hiatus in per capita output that signalled an end to growth.
Figure 1: GDP per capita in thousands of Chained 2005$, SAAR, as of September 28, 2012, calculated using GDP and population reported at that date. On log scale. Source: St. Louis Fed ALFRED, and author’s calculations.
Cassidy-Graham Implications for Federal Health Spending
Even more draconian than outright repeal.
Source: CBPP.
Term Spread, September 5, 2017
As I was compiling background notes for the new semester, I found the current level and trend in the term spread of interest.
Figure 1: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, NBER and author’s calculations.
Run the probit regression
recessiont+6 = -0.81 -0.474×(GS10-TB3MS)t + 0.065×TB3MSt + ut
over the 1967M01-2017M02 period (McFadden R2 = 0.24); the implied probability of recession is 10% for February 2018.
Using a specification without the level of the short rate included leads to a slightly higher probability, 14% or so.
The detail is also interesting. The spreads are smaller than they were in October 2016.
Figure 2: Ten year minus three month Treasury spread (blue), and ten year minus two year spread (red), %. Observations for September are 9/5. Source: FRED, Bloomberg, and author’s calculations.
“Fostering a Dynamic Global Economy”
Here at this conference today:
Friday, August 25, 2017
Chair: Susan M. Collins
Former Dean, Gerald R. Ford School of Public PolicyUniversity of Michigan
8 a.m.
Opening RemarksJanet L. Yellen | Speech
Chair
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System8:30 a.m.
Fostering Business Dynamism and Ensuring Competitive MarketsAuthors: Chang-Tai Hsieh | Paper
Professor
University of ChicagoPete Klenow | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Stanford UniversityDiscussant: Gita Gopinath | Remarks
Professor
Harvard University9:05 a.m.
General Discussion9:55 a.m.
Income Inequality and the Distribution Aspects of International TradeAuthor: Nina Pavcnik | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Dartmouth CollegeDiscussant: David Dorn | Remarks
Professor
University of Zurich10:30 a.m.
General Discussion10:55 a.m.
Panel on the Changing Landscape of International TradePanelists: Ann E. Harrison | Remarks
Professor
University of PennsylvaniaCatherine L. Mann | Remarks
Chief EconomistOrganisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Peter K. Schott | Remarks
Professor
Yale UniversityJohn Van Reenen | Paper, Remarks
Professor
Massachusetts Institute of Technology11:55 a.m.
General Discussion1 p.m.
Luncheon AddressMario Draghi | Speech
PresidentEuropean Central Bank
2 p.m.
AdjournmentSaturday, August 26, 2017
Chair: Randall S. Kroszner
ProfessorUniversity of Chicago
8 a.m.
Balancing Short-term Fiscal Stimulus with Longer-term SustainabilityAuthors: Alan J. Auerbach | Paper
ProfessorUniversity of California-Berkeley
Yuriy Gorodnichenko| Paper
Professor
University of California-BerkeleyDiscussant: Jason Furman | Remarks
ProfessorHarvard University
8:35 a.m.
General Discussion9 a.m.
Achieving Balanced Global GrowthAuthor: Menzie Chinn | Paper, Remarks
ProfessorUniversity of Wisconsin
Discussant:
Maurice Obstfeld |RemarksEconomic Counsellor
International Monetary Fund10 a.m.
General Discussion10:25 a.m.
Overview PanelPanelists: Norman Chan | Remarks
Chief Executive
Hong Kong Monetary AuthorityTimothy J. Kehoe | Remarks
Professor
University of MinnesotaCarmen M. Reinhart
Professor
Harvard University11:25 a.m.
General Discussion
What’s the Dead Weight Loss of a Consumption Tax When Externalities Are Present?
Stephen Moore Is a Liar, Part 2
(Transitory) Revealed Preferences
Here’s the health coverage implications of President Trump’s proposal to repeal Obamacare, as assessed by the CBO:
Figure 1: Effects of H.R. 1628, THE Obamacare Repeal Reconciliation Act of 2017, on health insurance coverage of people under age 65, in millions, by calendar year. Source: CBO, Table 4.
So, at least for part of one day, the President was content to let an additional 32 million be uncovered by 2026.