In response to this post, climate model skeptic Rick Stryker writes (in ALL CAPS no less):
JUST BECAUSE A MODEL DESCRIBES THE EXISTING DATA DOESN’T MEAN THAT IT WILL DESCRIBE DATA THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Eswar Prasad on the “The Dollar Trap”
“[I]n the aftermath of the financial crisis, U.S. policies and a dysfunctional international monetary system have paradoxically strengthened the dollar’s importance.”
The Reliability of Chinese GDP, Again
Is growth really collapsing?
Links for 2013-05-01
Quick links to a few items I found of interest:
- The Congressional Budget Office has prepared informative slides summarizing the U.S. fiscal situation (via Business Insider)
- Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers referee the Reinhart-Rogoff debate (via Free Exchange)
- Herndon, Ash, and Pollin appear to have been using faulty data for New Zealand
- Bill McBride reviews the U.S. decline in vehicle miles driven
- China’s oil imports are down relative to this point last year (via Steven Kopits)
“Solving America’s Debt Crisis”
That’s the title of a piece my colleague Andrew Reschovsky has in the Fall La Follette Policy Report. With the admission of failure by the Supercommittee, it’s important to recall the basic choices facing the Nation.
CEA Assessment of the the Impact of Letting UI Extensions Expire
From the CEA’s report “The Economic Impact of Recent Temporary Unemployment Insurance Extensions” released earlier today.
IMF WEO: “Transitioning out of Sustained CA Surpluses”
[Corrections made 11am Pacific]
“Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning Out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses” by Abdul Abiad, Daniel Leigh and Marco Terrones:
This chapter examines the experiences of economies
that ended large, sustained current account surpluses
through policy actions such as exchange rate appreciation
or macroeconomic stimulus. It subjects these
historical episodes to statistical analysis and provides a
narrative account of five specific transitions, examining
economic performance and identifying key factors that
explain various growth outcomes.
The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact
From “The Global Financial Crisis: Explaining Cross-Country Differences in the Output Impact,” IMF WP 09/280, by Pelin Berkmen, Gaston Gelos, Robert Rennhack, and James P. Walsh:
We provide one of the first attempts at explaining the differences in the crisis impact across
developing countries and emerging markets. Using cross-country regressions to explain the
factors driving growth forecast revisions after the eruption of the global crisis, we find that a
small set of variables explain a large share of the variation in growth revisions. …
Economic Report of the President, 2010
Fiscal Situation: A Cross-Country Perspective
Torsten Slok has a whole set of interesting pictures, two of which are particularly relevant in thinking about the US fiscal situation as compared to other advanced countries.