Nonresidential fixed investment has been declining for three quarters, while equipment has been declining for two quarters. If Atlanta Fed nowcasts prove right for the current quarter, then as of 2020Q1, equipment investment will have fallen for three quarters (while nonresidential will still be below peak).
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Guest Contribution: “The predictive power of equilibrium exchange rates”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), Adam Cap (BIS), Andrej Mijakovic (European University Institute) and Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
Remembering Representative Ryan’s Legacy
Brian Riedl writes:
I’ve never understood the intense hatred of Paul Ryan. Agree or disagree on policies — he treated people well (even when they didn’t return the favor), avoided demagoguery, good family man, no scandals. Thats what we should want out of elected officials.
Pre-Benchmarking Manufacturing Employment in MI, PA, and WI
The pre-benchmarked establishment survey suggests declining employment in key industrial states of Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Using the methodology I used to inferring the national establishment survey, can we anticipate the revision to manufacturing in these states?
Productivity, Product Wage, and Real Wage
Productivity and costs for 2019Q4 were released yesterday.
Business Cycle Indicators as of 1/29 as Real 10 Year Rate Goes Negative
Monthly GDP growth is slow in December:
What Is the Size of Russian Forces in Ukraine?
Back to Zero — and Beyond! [updated]
Updated 1/30/2020 – Treasury yield curve inverted relative to 1 month all the way out to somewhere between 10yrs and 20yrs!
Ten year TIPS yields that is; the 10yr-3mo spread is 4 bps.
Figure 1: Ten year – three month Treasury spread (blue), and Ten year TIPS yield (red), both in %. Source: Federal Reserve via FRED, Treasury, and author’s calculations.
Disposition of Forces in Donbass Region, Ukraine
As of 24 January, according to the Information Analysis Center:
Source: Information Analysis Center.
Discussion of presence of Russian T-72-B3 tanks in Ukraine, here.
Judy Shelton to the Fed?
From the White House: