10 seconds on FRED allows one to see a time series. 20 seconds in a stats package (or even Excel) allows one to see ahead of time if one is going to write something stupid.
Category Archives: Uncategorized
Links: Oil Shocks, China Lockdowns, Spring Meetings, Economic Report of the President, and Ukraine Reconstruction
Some links relevant to current events, in no particular order:
Statements and Documentation on Russian Actions in Ukraine
From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.
From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”
From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”
Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.
The Times We Live In
From WaPo:
Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said Tuesday that he would be open to the Supreme Court overturning its 1967 ruling that legalized interracial marriage nationwide to allow states to independently decide the issue.
He later revised and extended his remarks.
Russian GDP Prospects Visualized
Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 growth estimate from 2% to -7%. I visualize the level of GDP thus:
“Cabaret of Shadows”
A chamber opera with music by Laura Schwendinger, libretto by Ginger Strand, in Houston this weekend.
Not “No Exit” – Just “One Exit”
Risk, noon March 1st
Figure 1: Geopolitical Risk index – Acts (blue, left scale) and VIX (brown, right scale). 3/1 observation for VIX as of noon EST. Source: CBOE via FRED, Caldara and Iacoviello, accessed 3/1/2022.
Risk and Uncertainty Measures
VIX, Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Geopolitical Risk:
Thirty One Months Ago – Transcript/Shakedown for Javelins
As declassified by the President, a transcript of the July 25, 2019 telecon between Mr. Trump and the President of Ukraine: