Category Archives: Uncategorized

Seminars on Economic Forecasting

Econbrowser has hosted lots debates about how to forecast. For people who want to learn how forecasting is done, here are two series I’ve been made aware of.

The IIF’s next session is with Mike McCracken (St. Louis Fed) on “On the real-time predictive content of financial conditions indexes for growth” (May 10). The HO Steckler Program’s two  speakers are Juhee Bae (University Of Glasgow)  “Forecasting With Partial Least Squares When A Large Number Of Predictors Are Available” (May 5), and Renee Fry-McKibbin (ANU) “Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence” (May 12).

I’m sure I’m missing many others, so suggestions welcome.

And since I’m doing a public service ad, here’s the link to economics data sources, so even if you don’t want to do econometrics, at least you can look up the data yourself to see if your preconceived notions are validated or not (i.e., don’t believe your typical ZeroHedge post..).

 

Remarkable Things People Say

In this case, one person. Steven Kopits writes:

4. The US is immune to an oil shock on paper as we are ostensibly energy independent in oil. We’ve seen this play out before. US oil consumption declined from June 2011 to December 2012 — 18 months — without the US falling into recession, something which is historically unprecedented in modern times. By contrast, Europe fell into a steep recession during this period — Q4 2011 through Q1 2013.

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“American Power, Prosperity and Democracy” – LaFollette Forum 2022

The La Follette School will host its third La Follette Forum, funded by the Kohl Initiative and the Center for European Studies, on Wednesday, May 4, 2022. With guest speakers Adam Posen (Peterson IIE), Catherine Rampell (WaPo), Paul Blustein (formerly WSJ, WaPo), Oriana Skylar Mastro (Stanford), Jamelle Bouie (NYT), Daniel Ziblatt (Harvard), and discussion by UW faculty.

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Fantasies of the Past

From people who extrapolate from personal observations, while dismissing statistics; to wit:

The chip shortage is ending. My Whirlpool contact told me they are now back to full production and going downstream to a HVAC company I am related to, all chip shortages ended in late summer.

Auto will be over by Halloween. Production of new cars will surge into 2021. Creating deflationary pressures. People like Condon don’t anticipate, they create intellectual fantasies.

That was a comment by Gregory Bott in September 2021.

So read this latest comment (from today) regarding the oil price increase/Russian invasion impact on economic prospects with that prognostication in mind:

I see little actual disruption. My guess by May, this will be reversed. Much like the coming upward revisions to gdp/payrolls in 2020-21. Be careful with struggling government data.

Gregory Bott may turn out to be right in the end. But I’m not betting on it (and I just really don’t know how people can be confident about things when the situation is so fluid).

 

 

Statements and Documentation on Russian Actions in Ukraine

From Human Rights Watch (Apr 3): “Ukraine: Apparent War Crimes in Russia-Controlled Areas: Summary Executions, Other Grave Abuses by Russian Forces”.

From Amnesty International (Apr 7): “Ukraine: Russian forces extrajudicially executing civilians in apparent war crimes – new testimony”

From UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) (March 28): “Mounting civilian deaths, mass destruction and catastrophic humanitarian situation as Russian Federation attacks Ukraine”

Bellingcat has been documenting the application of cluster bombs and artillery strikes against civilian populations.

 

 

The Times We Live In

From WaPo:

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) said Tuesday that he would be open to the Supreme Court overturning its 1967 ruling that legalized interracial marriage nationwide to allow states to independently decide the issue.

He later revised and extended his remarks.

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