If you despair of the administration bringing us safely through this test, then let this provide some hope, click here.
Elgar’s Nimrod Variation IX, from the Enigma Variations – musicians of the Calgary Philharmonic Orchestra and the Edmonton Symphony Orchestra.
In the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, we wonder why we did not prepare adequately and efficiently. Trump has blamed China, Obama, the media, the governors, General Motors and the hospitals.
I suspect there are historical parallels, and someday we will see the documentation. Like below:
Just finished a conversation on Wisconsin Public Radio “Central Time”. Here are some papers that informed my talk.
EconoFact has been providing insights into the current health/economic crisis. Here is a compendium:
[Update – Figure added 3/14 1:30pm Central. Source: Torsten Slok, DB.]
From The Hill today:
One model from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) suggested that between 160 million and 210 million Americans could contract the disease over as long as a year. Based on mortality data and current hospital capacity, the number of deaths under the CDC’s scenarios ranged from 200,000 to as many as 1.7 million.
It found as many as 21 million people might need hospitalization, a daunting figure in a nation with just about 925,000 hospital beds.
Feels like 2008-09. But doesn’t. Compare who’s running the show in the White House…(Updated lists from 2019 post).
[table corrected 3/10, thx to Giles Warrack]
The Fed looks good (when it’s allowed to do it’s own thing, unencumbered by Trump tirades). Otherwise…
It ain’t 2009…
Nonresidential fixed investment has been declining for three quarters, while equipment has been declining for two quarters. If Atlanta Fed nowcasts prove right for the current quarter, then as of 2020Q1, equipment investment will have fallen for three quarters (while nonresidential will still be below peak).
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by Michele Ca’ Zorzi (ECB), Adam Cap (BIS), Andrej Mijakovic (European University Institute) and Michal Rubaszek (SGH Warsaw School of Economics). The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the institutions they are affiliated with.
