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Econbrowser

Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Stop Stephen Moore

From being appointed to the Fed. Here is a non-exhaustive recounting of Moore’s reign of error.

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Glenn Rudebusch on “Climate Change and the Federal Reserve”

It doesn’t get much more real than this, when the Fed has to take into account the implications of global climate change. Glenn D. Rudebusch,  senior policy advisor and executive vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, lays out the issues in this letter.

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

RV Sales Decline 40% Jan. 2019 vs. Jan. 2018

I have no idea if they’re a particularly good predictor of recessions, but January sales have fallen 40% relative to a year previous…

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This entry was posted on March 25, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

“Workshop on International Capital Flows and Exchange Rates”

Central Bank of Ireland – ECB and IM-TCD
Workshop on:
International Capital Flows and Exchange Rates
CALL FOR PAPERS
Venue: Trinity College Dublin, Ireland
Date: September 6th, 2019

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This entry was posted on March 24, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

On Kansas: Prognostications from Five Years Ago

Whether due to Brownback or other factors, Kansas is doing very well.

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This entry was posted on March 24, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “Xi and Trump Miss a Chance to Expand Markets”

Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version appeared in Project Syndicate on March 21st.

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This entry was posted on March 24, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Why Haven’t Soybean Futures Recovered?

As Brad Setser noted last month, US, Brazilian and Argentine soybean prices have converged, suggesting the end of arbitrage profits.

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This entry was posted on March 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Glasnost In Wisconsin

After a hiatus of nearly 4 years, the Wisconsin Department of Revenue has resumed publication of the Wisconsin Economic Outlook, as of yesterday.

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This entry was posted on March 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

What Did $1.4 Billion Buy in Manufacturing Employment?

Not much…Wisconsin manufacturing employment up to February; January revised down…

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This entry was posted on March 23, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

Just So You Know: Watergate and Recession

Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (blue, left log scale), industrial production (red, right log scale). NBER defined recession dates shaded gray. Source: BLS, Fed via FRED, NBER.

This entry was posted on March 22, 2019 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.7 (describes  2025:Q4)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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