Apropos the post on evaluating the impact of the stimulus, here is graphical depiction of what IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers, and Moody’s predicted under the counterfactual of no stimulus against the w/stimulus outlook (from NYT).
China, the Renminbi, and Global Imbalances: A Quantitative View
GDP: Revisions and Forecasts
There’s been some discussion of how the GDP estimates for 2009Q3 might be revised downward in light of the September trade release [1]. e-Forecasting has presented its latest estimates up to October, and Macroeconomic Advisers through September. Macroeconomic Advisers writes:
Receiver operating characteristics curve
Travis Berge and Oscar Jorda of the University of California, Davis have an interesting new paper on statistical criteria for distinguishing economic expansions from recessions.
Assessing the Impact of Government Policy on Widget Consumption and Widget Sector Capital Usage
Let supply and demand for widgets (y) be given by the following two equations, respectively:
(1) yt = αt + β x t + ε t
(2) yt = γ + δ x t + Γ z t + u t
The Global Surface Temperature Anomaly
Commodity inflation
Why are the prices of so many commodities rising in an economy that seems to remain quite weak?
Politico Does Economic Analysis…
Be afraid; be very afraid.
From “‘Created or saved’ doesn’t add up”, by Joseph Lawler:
…[t]he “created or saved” numbers are meaningless. The administration purposefully devised the metric to be nebulous. Without a counterfactual, showing the trend of unemployment in the absence of the stimulus, it is impossible to know how many jobs the stimulus saved.
Will rising oil prices derail the recovery?
Last April I described new research on the role of oil prices in the recent recession. Here’s an update on what’s happened since then.
“Where’s the Consumption Disaster?”
Casey Mulligan asks:
So a year later, in September 2009, after living through a year of “disaster,” how did real consumption expenditure (one economists’ favorite measures of living standards) compare to what it was in September 2008?