The University of California may say I’m just taking a few days off. That’s not how I see it.
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance
My article with Jeffry Frieden and the decomposition of the 2001-07 change in the deficit discussed in The Lasting Legacy of the Bush Tax Cuts inspired lots of vigorous debate regarding the role of the Bush deficits in the current crisis. Here is the CBO‘s take on the cyclically adjusted budget balance:
Car sales up, but for how long?
August auto sales provided the strongest signal of an economic rebound that we’ve seen yet. But August is so yesterday.
The Lasting Legacy of the Bush Tax Cuts
From The 2009 Budget Deficit: How did we get here? by John Irons, Kathryn Edwards, and Anna Turner:
This Issue Brief examines the details and causes of the current budget deficit and the role the current recession has played. The years between 2001 and 2007 saw a large deterioration in the budget balance, which was driven chiefly by legislated policy changes. The Bush-era tax cuts are the largest contributors to this period of policy-induced increases to the federal budget deficit. . . .
Econbrowser Emoticon shifts to neutral
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Sep 13, 2006 |
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| Feb 21, 2007 | 
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| Apr 25, 2007 | 
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| Jun 27, 2007 |
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| Oct 5, 2007 |
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| Jan 4, 2008 |
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| Aug 30, 2009 |
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If you’ve only been following Econbrowser since 2008, you may have thought that the crabby countenance in the upper-right corner of our main page was a permanent fixture, conveying our general grumpiness about the state of the economy or perhaps life in general. Despite having been stuck in the pessimistic mode for quite some time now, the emoticon was in fact always intended to be a dynamic feature, adjusted from time to time to provide readers with our overall impression of incoming data. The table on the left provides links to each occasion that our Little Econ Watcher’s countenance has changed in the past.
Last week’s data persuaded me to move the Econbrowser Emoticon back into neutral, signifying that I now judge overall output to be growing slowly rather than declining. Here are details on the evidence that prompted this change in assessment, and what it signifies.
Of Ideologues and Ranters
From Arnold Kling‘s entry yesterday:
Kwak goes on to endorse Chinn’s ideological rant that the Bush tax cuts caused the financial crisis. Yes, I know that Chinn is speaking in the tone of economic analysis rather than a rant, but only a left-wing ideologue would take the thesis seriously. I bet Kwak cannot find a blog post of Chinn’s where he made a policy point against Democrats/liberals or for Republicans/conservatives.
$9 trillion– what, me worry?
Paul Krugman may not be that concerned by the Obama administration’s new projection that the unified federal budget deficits will sum to $9 trillion dollars over the next 10 years. But I am.
I Am Even More Confused Now…
By Richard Posner’s math…On August 25th he wrote, regarding Dr. Romer’s August 6 speech:
Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008
From “Reflections on the Causes and Consequences of the Debt Crisis of 2008,” in the La Follette Policy Report by Menzie Chinn and Jeffry Frieden:
In late 2008, the world’s financial system seized up. Billions of dollars worth of financial assets were frozen in place, the value of securities uncertain, and hence the solvency of seemingly rock solid financial institutions in question. By the
end of the year, growth rates in the industrial world had gone negative, and even developing country growth had declined sharply.
Good news on house prices
I was happy and surprised to see that the nominal
S&P/Case-Shiller seasonally adjusted Home Price Index rose by 0.75% in June for a composite of 20 U.S. metropolitan areas.