There has been some discussion recently about discrepancies between different government estimates of the state of the labor market. Although a legitimate issue has been raised, there has also been a bit of misunderstanding.
Musings on Inflation Worries
The selloff in the stock market last week was attributed by some to inflation worries — namely that persistent inflation means a reduction in the Fed Funds rate is less likely than the market had until recently believed.
The April Trade Release: Good and Ambiguous News
The April trade release surprised on the upside. Here are a few other insights, not all of which are unalloyed positives.
Worries about gasoline supplies
Robert Rapier has some concerns about what could be in store for the U.S. this summer.
Post Mortem on the Cambridge Energy Research Associates Forecasts
In the summer of 2005, Cambridge Energy Research Associates received a lot of publicity for their optimistic assessments of near-term oil supplies. Two years later, it’s interesting to see how the details of those predictions have been borne out so far.
Financial Openness around the World
What do our indicators tell us?
Petroleum refining and comparative advantage
Some readers keep asking me, If U.S. refining capacity is such a big issue, why don’t we just import more finished product?
Diverging Trends in Recent Employment Measures
Little noted is the fact that, while May’s payroll employment release surprised on the upside, the household series were providing conflicting indications.
Auto sales improve in May
Yet another one of my chief worries gets some relief from new data.
Don’t worry, be happy
Yesterday the Bureau of Economic Analysis told us that first-quarter real GDP grew not at the anemic 1.3% annual growth rate as was originally reported in the “advance” estimate given to us at the end of April, but instead was a barely-positive 0.6% as now claimed in the “preliminary” 2007:Q1 estimates. So what’s worse than we thought?