The BEA released today its comprehensive national account revisions, according to which real GDP grew at a 1.7% annual rate in 2013:Q2. Although this was above the 1.1% rate that many analysts were expecting, the new estimates also revise down the growth rates that were previously reported for 2012:Q4 and 2013:Q1, with the growth rate over these quarters now estimated to have been 0.1% and 1.1%, respectively, down from the 0.4% and 1.8% figures that had been reported last month.
Monthly Archives: July 2013
Exchange Rates: What Exactly Are Those “Factors”?
One of the things that mystifies me is a branch of the asset pricing literature which models exchange rates as a function of a “factor” or “factors”. It’s not that I don’t think they make sense, statistically; it’s that my mind wants to know what those “factors” are.
The case for Janet Yellen as Federal Reserve chair
I wanted to express some of the reasons why I feel that Janet Yellen would be an outstanding choice to head the Federal Reserve.
Worries about China
Paul Krugman is among those starting to be concerned about an economic downturn in China. Here are my thoughts on this issue.
Prescience, 2007 edition
Having coauthored an entire book on the financial crisis of 2008 (Lost Decades, with Jeffry Frieden) I think that one of the most important qualities for a policymaker is the ability to look forward, and assess potential dangers and understand why those dangers arise. Looking back to 2007, it’s of interest to see who foresaw the impact of adverse feedback loops in the financial system as risk was repriced.
Some Thoughts on Recent Chinese GDP Growth
It’s an understatement to say there has been a lot of dismay at the drop in Chinese year-on-year GDP growth, from 7.7% to 7.5%. Figure 1 below, from the IMF’s Article IV report released on July 17, shows data only through 2013Q1, although the forecast for 2013Q2 looks about right to me.
Brent-WTI spread disappears– for now
On Friday the benchmark crude oil traded in the central United States (West Texas Intermediate) sold for the same price as the benchmark European crude (Brent). That’s the first time that’s happened in almost three years. But I don’t expect the situation to persist.
The Wisconsin Economic Outlook: July 2013
Key numbers: 79 thousands and 81 thousands
It’s Been a Hot July
As noted by NBC News, but it’s absolutely, positively, definitely got nothing to do with global climate change (!!!).
Slow 2013Q2 Growth: The Shadow of the Sequester?
Macroeconomic Advisers estimates second quarter growth at around 0.6% SAAR. [0] Is it because of the sequester and the ending of the payroll tax rate reduction? In part, Jeff Frankel thinks so; see also [1]. Macroeconomic Advisers had predicted something over a 1% reduction in growth rate (SAAR) relative to baseline in the second quarter [2]