Figure 0: Net domestic (state-to-state) immigration 2013-14 as a proportion of July 2013 population. A negative figure indicates net emigration. Source: BuCensus and author’s calculations.
Figure 1.1: Population growth, measured in log differences for MN (blue) and WI (red). Gray shaded area denotes NBER defined recession dates. Light green shaded area denotes Dayton and Walker administrations Source: BuCensus via FRED and author’s calculations.
Figure 1.2: Minnesota-Wisconsin population growth growth differentials. Higher values denote faster growth in Minnesota relative to Wisconsin. Gray shaded area denotes NBER defined recession dates. Light green shaded area denotes Dayton and Walker administrations Source: BuCensus via FRED and author’s calculations.
Mike Ivey writes:
MADISON — Blame the weather.
Blame the economy.
Blame Scott Walker.
No matter the reason, Wisconsin is among the top 10 states for people moving out, according to the annual survey from United Van Lines. Forbes reported the story recently and it has been widely circulated — although probably not by many chambers of commerce.
The moving company United Van Lines has been doing the survey for 36 years and analyzed some 125,000 residential moves in the continental U.S. last year. While not scientific, it does provide a nice snapshot of migration patterns, along with fodder for social media chatter.
While Madison, viewed dimly by some in Wisconsin, is ranked highly by the tech industry, the the state overall does not fare so well.
Unfortunately, the divisive political scene in Wisconsin is leaving some people with a sense that things are going in the wrong direction.
“My parents moved here in 1973 because of Wisconsin’s reputation for a great educational system and quality of life issues — lots of beautiful state parks and lakes, excellent highway system, great employment opportunities, valuing the contributions of the creative class,” says Gwen Rice, communications director with Forward Theater Company in Madison. “If given the choice, I’m not sure they would come to the Wisconsin of 2013.”
Not surprising, since Wisconsin employment is lagging the counterfactual implied by historical correlations, as documented in this post.
Figure 2: Wisconsin private nonfarm payroll employment, June release (blue), and out-of-sample forecast (red), in 000’s, s.a. 90% forecast interval (pink). Source: BLS and author’s calculations. See text.