…as well as threatening an all out trade war with Mexico. It’s purportedly to deal with the “migration crisis” on our Southern border. The “crisis” is illustrated below.
Source: Gzeromedia.
Update, 9:45PM Pacific: Several commenters have called for a wall. I suspect they would prefer machine gun posts, a few dozen tanks each mile, some antipersonnel mine fields, and a “shoot-to-kill” order from Trump to accompany the wall.
Here is some reasoned analysis of the southern Wall, from EconoFact.
Should the United States Build a Wall on the Mexican Border to Reduce Unauthorized Immigration?
Ziva Branstetter was an editor on many of the detention camp stories that originally broke and were exclusives at “Reveal”. Before Ziva Branstetter worked at “Reveal” she worked at what is the hands down best journalism site/outlet in the state of Oklahoma “The Frontier”. Ziva now works at Washington Post.
“The Frontier” has uncovered many important stories in the state of Oklahoma related to corruption and has even covered stories related to immigration round-ups and abuse of immigrants. But they are non-profit with only enough funds for 4 full-time journalists. I know the editor there (Dylan Goforth) dreams and fantasizes about hiring more high quality journalists to expand their investigative and forensic capabilities. Yet the value they have offered subscribers and contributors to “The Frontier” and to the cleansing of state politics is immeasurable. If you have just $10, $25 burning a hole in your pocket—or just want to do something that makes the world a better place, I highly encourage you to donate. I promise you if ProPublica thinks they are worth helping then you should also:
https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/the-frontier-is-joining-with-propublica-on-a-year-long-journalism-project/
DONATE link: https://app.mobilecause.com/form/LZ06dQ
Here is a story “The Frontier” did back in June 2018 on immigrants from the southern border being held in the state of Oklahoma:
https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/immigration-attorney-influx-of-detainees-at-the-tulsa-jail-appear-to-be-mostly-males-seeking-asylum/
Here is another story they did on OKlahoma police officers busted for sex crimes.
https://www.readfrontier.org/stories/more-than-40-oklahoma-officers-banned-for-sex-crime-convictions-in-last-five-years/
Many of these crimes committed by law enforcement officers are not documented well in the state of Oklahoma, so “The Frontier” is creating their own data base, so these crimes are on the public record (which could be useful, if for nothing else, then when law officers accused of serious crimes hop counties and hop jurisdictions to get new police jobs and continue abusing people).
Some great journalism and amazing photo-journalism. Be interesting to see if women who say they treasure children and can’t imagine anyone abusing children are going to give up their chocolate bars and oreo cookies containing cocoa over this. Hmmmmm, I wonder……..
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/business/hershey-nestle-mars-chocolate-child-labor-west-africa/?utm_term=.63f012bf0422
Lately there’s been complaints from women that there aren’t enough female lab rats being poked at and killed in science experiments, so actually I really never know how these things will break down—but something tells me this isn’t going to effect human female chocolate consumption in the least. But I’m crazy that way.
Actually, this does not illustrate the crisis at all. The data shown goes through FY 2018.
The pick-up in apprehensions started in August 2018, after the Sabraw ruling preventing the splitting of children from parents. Things really accelerated after the omnibus bill was signed in February. At 132,887, May US southwest border apprehensions were the highest since 2000, ie, the Clinton administration. If the trendline holds, June could see 150,000 apprehensions, which would be the largest since at least 2000, as far back as my monthly data goes. There’s a chance it could be the highest June ever.
Our forecast for FY 2019 is 970,000, the highest since 2005.
Oh my God!!!! Oh my God!!!! Oh Geezus!!!! 970,000 rapists and murderers crossing the border in the last 5 minutes alone!!!! When will the madness and chaos end sweet baby Geezus!?!?!?!?!:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LV9yvGGNaiQ
Notice how little Stevie starts a lot of his intellectual garbage with “Our forecast”. So it is plural. Who is helping him with his statistics? Oh yea John Lott. His graphs? Oh yea Kevin “figure 1-6” Hassett. And of course Stephen Moore is on his team. Now wonder Stevie gets to peddle his garbage on Fox and Friends!
Steven Kopits: Apply the ratio of Oct-May for FY2018 to that for FY2019, and one obtains an estimate of slightly more than 1 mn. That still is significantly below the apprehensions in FY2000 in excess of 1.6 mn. Should we be looking at individual months in a volatile series?
“Should we be looking at individual months in a volatile series?”
A well reasoned analysis would say no. But Princeton Stevie Boy wants more air time on his right wing shows. Keep in mind he is not about good policy. He is all about shameless self promotion.
Menzie –
Yes, the monthly data is entirely germane. I have reproduced the annual graph for you with 2019F here. Feel free to use it.
https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2019/6/10/border-apprehension-trends-1960-2019
The underlying data are at the link below. It has the monthlies as far back as I have been able to find it, and the annuals back to 1960 per the graph above.
https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2019/6/10/apprehensions-and-illegal-entries-spreadsheet-june-2019-version
There is no question that the southwest border is wide open. We are monthly setting records for minors apprehended. A normal level might be, say, 8,000 per month. In May, it was 55,000.
The more pertinent question is what to do about it. As you know, I favor moving to a commercial framework which could end this is short order. Otherwise, it will end when the Democrats come to realize that it will cost them the House in 2020. And it will. Bank on it. I have forecast that the Democrats will tap out in mid-July. I am holding that expectation for the moment. June apprehensions could be in the 150-160k range, which would be close to the all-time high. That will catch some folks’ attention.
Steven Kopits: Thanks, but no thanks. I can see recent monthlies at CBP website:
https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
I still don’t think one should focus on one month.
It’s not one month. It’s where the trend line takes you.
Steven Kopits: Well, we know there is a seasonal pattern in apprehensions, so we know the line doesn’t go up continuously (seriously, did you ever take a time series class?).
I have made the seasonal adjustments. It’s in the spreadsheet I linked on the ‘Apprehensions’ tab. If you had checked, you’d know that.
My official forecast for June is 116k (not 150k), and declining thereafter. That’s how we get to 969k. I am not projecting the worst case scenario at all.
Thanks, no, I have better things to do.
I wonder if Princeton Steve has ever tried to followed the relationship between earnings and stock prices. Earnings can quickly rise or fall with little effect on stock valuations. After all – Wall Street know that there is big difference between temporary fluctuations in earnings v. permanent changes.
Something tells me that all of this escapes Princeton Steven even if it is clearly taught at Princeton University in most of their finance courses.
I would add that I am making something of a business-as-usual case. In reality, I am assuming the Democrats throw in the towel when the June numbers come out in early July. But I am not modeling that, because it’s speculation, at this point, and because we don’t know what nature and timing of agreed policies might be. In principle, the back end of the forecast is lower than the numbers stated — but that is a outcome contingent on factors which cannot be reasonably quantified at this point, so it’s not included in the forecast.
“Yes, the monthly data is entirely germane. I have reproduced the annual graph for you with 2019F here. Feel free to use it.”
More self promotion?! Look – inviting Menzie to use your intellectual garbage is sort of stupid. Even for you.
Pgl, do you have an alternative forecast estimate?
Well, Menzie used FY data from some third party. FY 18 ended in September 2018, and the current surge started last August, so FY 2018 numbers are wildly misleading. Since I track the numbers monthly — and of course had those numbers up on Drudge on Thursday — I thought to share, since Menzie apparently lacked access to or awareness of recent data.
That we have a crisis on our border is not controversial, nor the role the February appropriation bill played in it.
In terms of detention camps, the re-export of migrants in the Migrant Protection Protocol deserves some attention. Quite a bit of bad things could happen here.
Steven Kopits: I’m relying on CBP data for my calculations on the forecast number for FY2019. https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/sw-border-migration
Are you asserting your data is “better”
The crisis on the border is partly of the administration’s own making — because it wants a crisis. Why are the camps overflowing? Because of the administration’s new policy on holding in detention rather than releasing. And the administration’s reduction of foreign assistance to the Central American countries that are the source of many migrants is counterproductive. I think they know it’s counterproductive. It will spur further flows to the US, so the administration can cry “crisis”.
Of course one starts with the CBP numbers. Where else would one get them? Again, the link is on the ‘Sources’ tab of the spreadsheet I indicate above, with the difference that the spreadsheet contains monthly data all the way back to 2000, which the linked website does not.
I am not aware that CBP makes an apprehension forecast. Is there one at the link you mentioned that I missed? If not, did I miss your forecast for FY 2019? What is your forecast number for FY 2019?
Steven Kopits: As I noted in this comment, apply the 65.34% ratio of Oct 2017-May 2018 cumulative total to FY 2018 total to extrapolate for FY2019.
“The crisis on the border is partly of the administration’s own making — because it wants a crisis.”
Well, the wording of the omnibus bill comes from Congress, re asylum policy, almost certainly from Democrats. The President did not draft it, but he did sign it, along with the Republicans in the Senate — and of course the Democrats in the House.
“Why are the camps overflowing? Because of the administration’s new policy on holding in detention rather than releasing.”
The camps are overflowing because 100,000 people are taking on the borders every month, and we are not allowed to deport them. The release rate into the US interior is about 70%.
“And the administration’s reduction of foreign assistance to the Central American countries that are the source of many migrants is counterproductive. I think they know it’s counterproductive. It will spur further flows to the US, so the administration can cry “crisis”.”
I am agnostic on aid packages to the Northern Triangle countries. I simply don’t know enough about them to qualify them one way or another. The onslaught we are seeing at the southwest border has nothing to do with foreign assistance and everything to do with the omnibus bill, which prevents the extended detention and deportation of anyone traveling with a minor.
Ah, sorry. I didn’t realize your forecast was above mine. If you’d done that five days ago, you could have been on Fox and Friends.
Why not then modify the graph above to show your forecast? I think it speaks to the crisis. You’re showing a quadrupling of apprehensions compared to 2017, a doubling compared to 2018. Most people would think that’s a crisis, not noise.
I would love to know how many children have died so far in Trumps concentration camps.
For the record, it is unlikely the ‘Dems’ will suffer at all. Remember, Hillary won the popular vote. Russia helped Trump get the electrol colleges to turn the vote. Only %23 of the population are Trump supporters. I would hope that has fallen after all the gun violence his mouth has caused.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/border-apprehensions-to-reach-13-year-high-in-2019-report
“Why We Are Letting Children Die In, and Building Bigger, Detention Camps”
Because you won’t let Trump build the wall.
The reason that these illegal immigrants and their children are being detained is that we are apprehending them on the US side of the border. They are therefore entitled to due process, and are held until court dates. Children are not supposed to be in prison so they are separated from their parents (or alleged parents).
With a wall they are kept out until they apply for asylum. No detention, no separations.
sammy: Try reading something besides Trump-allied propaganda sometime. See here, about how a wall might very well be counterproductive: https://econofact.org/should-the-united-states-build-a-wall-on-the-mexican-border-to-reduce-unauthorized-immigration
Surely the wall would not exceed benefit-cost threshold of unity.
Why don’t you just put machine guns at the border and be done with it — that’s what you really want isn’t it?
I don’t know Menzie, I was a Laowai for 7 years, so maybe I’m biased, but it fascinates me how all the “conservatives” with their “Christian” values have such a hard time understanding it. Which one of these verses seems vague, middle-of-the-road, hazy, or ill-defined??? I’m having a hard time seeing the gray here:
https://www.kingjamesbibleonline.org/Bible-Verses-About-Foreigners/
Is someone on FOX News or one of James Inhofe’s fellow church members going to tell us where Jesus the Christ said “Foreigners can go F**K themselves”?? In my younger years I spent a decent amount of time reading the Bible and I’m having a hell of a time remembering or finding that verse.
Moses Herzog: I must confess, the grotesque hypocrisy and selective reading (or in many cases, not reading) of the Bible is what makes me suspicious of organized religion.
That’s a fair criticism and hard to argue with. I tend to be cynical in my middle age, and in all honesty waver in my own mind on some of these things. However most Republicans don’t waver in terms of lip-service so my main objective there is calling them out. I’m sure “Princeton”Kopits tells everyone what a solid Christian he is and says he attends church “whenever time and his schedule allow”. So I am in that same boat of cynicism with you (I don’t attend Church while most members of my immediate family do, raised Methodist).
That was one (of many) ways I royally failed my father, was avoiding Church attendance at all costs clear into adulthood.
We better run this by “Princeton”Kopits and see what he thinks of the situation here:
The Flight into Egypt Matthew 2:13–15 (NKJV)
13 Now when they had departed, behold, an angel of the Lord appeared to Joseph in a dream, saying, “Arise, take the young Child and His mother, flee to Egypt, and stay there until I bring you word; for Herod will seek the young Child to destroy Him.”
14 When he arose, he took the young Child and His mother by night and departed for Egypt, 15 and was there until the death of Herod, that it might be fulfilled which was spoken by the Lord through the prophet, saying, “Out of Egypt I called My Son.”
Seems like a large risk factor to Egypt’s homeland security. They say they’re getting clairvoyant messages from dream fantasies, it appears the child is possibly illegitimate, the mother is hanging out with some drifter type, and we have no idea if any of them have gotten their inoculations. Running away to hide from government authorities of their native land. The 3 of them seem on the shifty side to me.
And Pharaoh’s border guards machine gunned Joseph and the Young Child and His Mother. And the angel of the Lord said, “Aw, shoot. Back to the drawing board.” Trump 2:17-18
Moses Herzog: You miss the obvious. Egypt needed a wall, a very big, beautiful wall.
@ Menzie
I heard that similar to donald trump, Republicans, and ICE—the Egyptians never penalized, punished, actively sought out or actively prosecuted jewish slave “employers”. How “odd”…… I guess just like trump that they thought “rapists and murderers” who were a cheap form of labor were actually pretty cool on the whole.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/us/illegal-immigration-employers-prosecutions.html
I wonder why donald trump waited until 2019 to get rid of the illegals who worked on his business properties??? NO chance of presidential pardon for them eh??
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/01/us/trump-workers-fired.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/06/us/trump-bedminster-golf-undocumented-workers.html
If you show rich white employers they will never be punished for hiring cheap labor, how does that incentive to hire cheap immigrant labor affect immigrant traffic at the border??
https://thehill.com/opinion/immigration/447561-employers-must-be-prosecuted-to-end-the-flow-of-illegal-immigrants
“Undocumented workers from Mexico and Guatemala formed the backbone of the work force at Southeastern Provision, located 10 miles north of Morristown in the town of Bean Station. They killed, skinned, decapitated and cut up cattle whose parts were used for, among other things, oxtail soup and a cured meat snack EXPORTED to Africa.
Immigrants were critical to the family-owned abattoir’s growth over the last decade. Many of those affected by the raid, fearing further action from the authorities, spoke on the condition that only their first names be used.
With the $11.50 hourly wage that her husband, Tomas, made at the plant and the $9 she earns as a seamstress, Elisabeth and her family could afford the $700 rent for a house big enough to accommodate their six children, three from her previous marriage, and live a relatively stable life, she said. To be sure, the work was heavy, gory and low-paying. Day after day, the workers endured the smell of manure, blood and flesh. But Southeastern Provision offered a major advantage over other businesses: The management, several workers said, didn’t seem to expect them to bother with fake work authorization documents.
Federal authorities said there was evidence that the company had run afoul of the law. In an affidavit, the Internal Revenue Service said the company had withdrawn millions of dollars in cash and told bank employees the money was needed to pay “Hispanics”— suggesting that the company knew it was hiring undocumented workers and evaded payment of federal employment taxes.
An informant hired at the plant in 2017 told investigators that workers felt they couldn’t complain about poor working conditions because of their immigration status. Some had to work unpaid overtime, the informant reported. He said he saw others required to work with “extremely harsh” chemicals without protective eyewear.
NO CHARGES HAVE BEEN FILED AGAINST THE COMPANY. A federal criminal investigation is ongoing, said Bryan Cox, an ICE spokesman. The owner, James Brantley, said he couldn’t talk about the case. His lawyer, Norman McKellar, also declined to comment. “We are in a difficult situation,” he said. ”
That’s from a Miriam Jordan written NYT report from June 2018
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/06/11/us/tennessee-immigration-trump.html?mtrref=www.google.com
You might “astutely” notice “Princeton”Kopits has NOTHING to say about legal prosecution and prison time of those rich white men knowingly employing illegals—as discussing employers getting prison time gets “Princeton”Kopits a non-invite to the 5:30 am B-team anchors on FOX news and a non-invite to Youtube streams with 5 viewers.
The dark secret of Sodom and Gomorrah was not “sodomy,” which is only vaguely hinted at, but the failure of the Sodomites to treat outsiders in a friendly and welcoming manner. This is primarily why fire and brimstone was sent to level the cities of the plain.
“Here is some reasoned analysis of the southern Wall, from EconoFact.”
That was a reasoned analysis. But Sammy does not do reasoned analysis. Neither does Trump.
BINGO!! and stop watching Fox news, the real enemy of the people
And the reason he wall would help is because Trump could declare victory and turn his attention elsewhere, as he has done in the South Korea trade deal, the North Korea nuke deal, Nafta 2.nothing, and so on. There is no good reason to expect that a wall will work, but it will allow Trump a victory lap and that is the only thing that matters.
“letting” implies negligence……… the opposition party can move on from impeachment and do some “good” in defining some “duty” the US has toward “entrants”.
While they are in the mood for “implementing” they might look at “relenting” in the bi-partisan regime change wars and “sanctions” that inflict immensely more harm to humans than “entrant” detentions on the Mexico border.
Back in my old industrial management courses, there was something called “root cause analysis”. Rather than focusing on the current outcomes and coming up with wild, contradictory “solutions”, the situation was dissected backward to find the factor(s) most contributing to the situation. Of course, knowing the cause and dealing with the cause might not be in the same universe. This is especially true of politics.
One might asked why so many people are ignoring the U.S. immigration laws and system. Is there an enabler outside of the U.S.? Are there enablers within the U.S.? Why are there enablers? Can there be direct actions taken to halt the enabling? What would be the consequences of taking action against the enablers?
Apparently, in California, the state government is the primary enabler of illegal immigration. The latest enabling effort is https://www.yahoo.com/news/california-lawmakers-agree-health-benefits-000834318.html . It seems that economic incentives that include government freebies seem to attract illegal immigrants. Estimates vary by source, but they indicate between 25% and 50% of all illegal immigrants in the U.S. reside in California.
What does California get in return?
• unlimited cheap labor
• additional representation in the U.S. house
Who else benefits?
Mexico enjoys some $25 billion in annual remittances, predicated on the unspoken assumption that its poor and hard-working expatriates can only afford to send such vast sums out of the United States through the magnanimity of the American social welfare system that helps subsidize families to free up hard-earned cash. Mexico has learned that its own expatriates are loyal proponents who romanticize Mexico—the farther away and longer they are absent from it.
https://www.newsweek.com/hidden-costs-rest-us-pay-illegal-immigration-578549
So, the question remains: should the present situation continue or should there be action toward removing the root cause?
Bruce Hall: I see. Load the M60’s!
Bruce Hall once again dazzles us with right wing nonsense. To be brief, let me focus on only one aspect of his latest intellectual garbage:
“What does California get in return?
• unlimited cheap labor
• additional representation in the U.S. house”
So Bruce thinks California will get more House members because it has more voters? Of course immigrants are not allowed to vote but shhh – don’t tell Bruce’s right wing masters.
As far as “cheap labor”, I guess Bruce is not aware that California actually enforces its minimum wage laws.
Oh well – we all look forward to the latest edition of Bruce Hall, Fox & Friends!
Pgl, you do amaze! “So Bruce thinks California will get more House members because it has more voters?” NO!!!!!! He knows better. Only you are ignorant of how they are apportioned: “….seats in the House of Representatives are apportioned by state according to population,..” NOT VOTERS.
There is however a lot of funding determined by number of legal residents. You might then understand why a census question regarding legal status is sensitive to many states. Bet’cha you even live in one.
Bruce Hall: The root cause might be socio-political unrest in Mexico, combined with a large income differential. Solving root cause — nuke Mexico.
Also, socio-political unrest in Central America, high crime, combined with a large income differential. Solving root caues — nuke Central America.
Also, socio-political unrest in what Mr. Trump has characterized as S***hole countries, combined with a large income differential. Solving for root causes — nuke those S***hole countries.
Problems solved!
Thanks, Bruce.
It should be kept in mind that the migration is not Mexican, with if anything net migration by Mexicans negative slightly ever since 2008. Those coming across the US-Mexican border are overwhelmingly from the “northern triangle” of Central American nations, which in an effort to get a t root causes, Trump had just canceled aid to those nations to punish them for not keeping their people from leaving for the US. Brilliant.
You know what your real problem is Menzie?? You “wentuh” “one-uh” “them thar” California “Libtard” accredited universities where they teach you “Libtard” things like science, mathematics, technology, tolerance of those who look different than yourself. I’m afraid to inform you Menzie this has been your “big downfall” in life and there is no saving you now.
Now, had you “done gotten” the true “Western Canon” “edumuhcation” taught in places such as Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Mississippi there might still be hope for you. But as it is……. let me show you the sections of the “great white culture” you have missed by having the arrant audacity to spend a significant part of your university years basking in west coast sunshine:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKcUOUYzDXA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNZe13qDNpo
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxQcOtjQmuw
WARNING: Strong Vulgarity, disturbing images of the great Arian Brotherhood, Some treasured portions of “the Western Canon” and triggers contained in the following video. i.e. The “deeper depths” of great white culture that donald trump is trying his best to foster and nurture at his rallies. Do NOT click on the following link if that offends you: https://youtu.be/M7xNult1GVM?t=6
Now, Menzie might suppose that as a white dude, some of these portions of the great “Western Canon” (all filmed in high MAGA voter turnout areas) make me cringe and grimace. But that’s just Menzie’s west coast “libtard” “edumuhcation” firing up the outboard motor again.
Root cause analysis!
https://www.thinkreliability.com/cause-mapping/what-is-root-cause-analysis/
I love this as it illustrates its points with pictures of weeds. OK. Now it sort of points out some very basic and obvious things. Not exactly rocket science. But notice the link – think reliability. Thinking reliably is something very foreign to Bruce Hall. Very foreign!
The root cause, Bruce, is the availability of jobs at much higher wages than would be available in Central America.
Here’s how the system works. If you can make it across the border, there is a job waiting. And moreover, undocumented migrants are a protected class, taken as a whole. You’ll recall on May 16th, the NYT informed us that Social Security had sent out ‘no match’ notices to 570,000 employers, indicating that there was a problem with one or more of their employees’ social security numbers. Well, that caused a brouhaha. So on Sunday, the 19th, the president announced that E-Verify was too hard for farmers and shouldn’t be used. Or as New York Magazine rather acidly put it: “Trump’s argument here is not that E-Verify is easily subverted or prone to error. Rather, in the president’s view, the problem with E-Verify is that it works.”
In other words, cracking down on migrants is fine, as long as it doesn’t impinge materially on US business. Consequently, there is demand for migrant labor, and for those who make it across the border, protection from authorities as a class. Of course, there is on-going enforcement against individuals, resulting in about a 3% chance of deportation in any given year. This provides the appearance of enforcement, but not at a level which materially constricts US employers.
Now, you might say, let’s crack down on US employers. How ’bout a bit of demand suppression, for a change?
The problem with that is numbers.
Although demand suppression works, I have proposed the strategy to any number of conservatives, and I have yet to have one take me up on it. Here’s why. Today, Americans oppose building a wall and deportation by a margin of about 60:40. As soon as you suggest to a conservative that we should shut down offending employers and import our poultry, meat, fruit, vegetables and dairy, they become far less enthusiastic about packing migrants back to the home country. In fact, a demand suppression-based approach will split the conservatives at least down the middle, such that the 60:40 ratio becomes 80:20 against a crackdown (including non-conservatives). There is no material constituency for a demand suppression-based policy.
So that leaves a supply suppression approach, which clearly isn’t working, has never worked and will never work, wall or no wall. (Menzie could do us the favor of show us why a demand-suppression strategy is doomed to failure — you can see right on a simple S/D graph.) Now, that’s not to say that supply suppression has no effect; it does, historically by cutting down supply by 10-15%. But that’s hardly a victory, and the authorities have to expend enormous effort chasing their tails to keep supply down (ie, those sneaky Mexicans and Central Americans will find some other way in if you build a wall). Still, that’s the rhetoric we hear on the right: Build a wall! Deport the illegals! It’s pretty much all a show to make armchair conservatives feel better. It is not meaningful policy in terms of addressing illegal immigration, but it will generate the pathology Menzie notes above, ie, people being put into camps and some of them dying. And much worse than that.
Now, if supply suppression doesn’t work and demand suppression isn’t politically viable, is there some other strategy that might work? What a task! Is there nothing in, say, the first few chapters of a basic economics textbook that could help us! If only we had some….model…or something like a model…which had been tried and in some other arena…perhaps alcohol or gambling or marijuana…which could help us…
But no. There is no such solution, certainly not one within the capability of professional economists to understand.
So we are doomed to penning posts like “Why We Are Letting Children Die In, and Building Bigger, Detention Camps” rather than pointing out that economics knows exactly how to solve the problem.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/16/us/immigrants-undocumented-no-match.html
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/trump-e-verify-fox-news-makes-it-too-hard-to-hire-the-undocumented.html
“The root cause, Bruce, is the availability of jobs at much higher wages than would be available in Central America.”
Your usual ignoring the fact that a lot of people in Central America are fleeing violence. Hey – are you really this incredibly stupid? Or maybe you advocate the deaths of the poor? No wonder Fox & Friends invite you on their pathetic show!
Almost 40 years ago First Lady Rosalynn Carter served our nation proudly visiting Cambodian refugees in Thailand:
https://www.nytimes.com/1979/11/10/archives/mrs-carter-visits-thai-camp-its-like-nothing-ive-seen-buying-from.html
BANGKOK, Thailand, Nov. 9 — Rosalynn Carter walked through the hospital and orphanage tents of a camp for 30,000 Cambodian refugees today, knelt next to the mats on which the sick lie in the sand and declared at the end of her visit, “It’s like nothing I’ve ever seen.”
Mrs. Carter kept her composure as she walked through the camp, whose daily death rate is now down to about 10 from more than 90 in the days after it was opened on Oct. 24. She smiled at malariaridden men and women, patted skeletal children and gave encouragement in a language the Cambodians did not understand to those racked by more diseases than the limited and overworked relief workers can diagnose.
She saw people whose every step seemed to cause them agony and others who could go to the ditch latrines only by being supported, almost carried, by volunteer workers from Bangkok’s foreign community.
Most of the people she saw have been taught to hate the United States as an enemy of Cambodia second only to Viet, nam. Most of the refugees in the Ban Kaeng camp remain under the discipline of the forces of former Prime Minister Poi Pot, who ruled Cambodia with an iron hand until the Vietnamese invasion pushed them to redoubts near the Thai border.
The refugees crossed the border last month on orders of the Pol Pot forces because there was no way to feed them in a country where the insecurity caused by the Vietnamese invasion and Pol Pot resistance has reduced food production to a fraction of Cambodia’s plentiful norm. They have been admitted to Thailand under this country’s new policy of temporary hospitality.
“Emotionally it’s overwhelming,” Mrs. Carter said at the end of her 90minute tour of the camp at Ban Kaeng, about 40 miles from the Cambodian border. “As a wife, as a mother, as a human being, it’s devastating.”
Mrs. Carter said that as the wife of the President of the United States, who sent her to Thailand to study the situation caused here by famine and war in the neighboring country, she wants to go home tomorrow “to do all I can to mobilize our people to see that we do all we possibly can to help the situation here.”
*****
This account continues but you get the idea of the horror known as The Killing Fields. I can only imagine what Princeton Stevie Boy might have said if he had been with the First Lady. Something like this:
“You know these people have come here only because Thai wages are higher than wages in Cambodia”.
“I suspect they would prefer machine gun posts, a few dozen tanks each mile, some antipersonnel mine fields, and a “shoot-to-kill” order from Trump to accompany the wall.”
If these illegal immigrants were likely Republican, rather than likely Democrat, voters, I’m sure this is what you all would be advocating.
No one here is advocating killing Republicans. Hey – some Republicans are reasonably asking for Trump to be locked up for obstruction of justice. Which BTW is not a capital crime. Now Trump’s treason may be a capital crime!
Voters? Illegal immigrants? Really? Um… Congratulations, sammy, you are a winner!
Whoever wrote this headline, we need to get the British police or Interpol (whoever can get the job done quickest) to arrest them and then detain them, preferably in a cell with a dozen inmates accused of nonconsensual sodomy. Quickly people, before the great unwashed figure out they’ve been conned for the last 4 decades:
https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2019/jun/11/trade-war-donald-trump-recession-uk-unemployment-earnings-business-live?page=with:block-5cff78fe8f0863265fe978b7#block-5cff78fe8f0863265fe978b7
If we have to send army tanks and wrecking balls to trample these journalists—let’s move it people!!!! We will not have the sham uncovered or we can’t call ourselves the home of MAGA anymore.
The back and forth between Princeton Stevie Boy and our host is getting amusing. Menzie properly noted:
“Steven Kopits: Apply the ratio of Oct-May for FY2018 to that for FY2019, and one obtains an estimate of slightly more than 1 mn. That still is significantly below the apprehensions in FY2000 in excess of 1.6 mn. Should we be looking at individual months in a volatile series?”
Your humble servant decided to wade through the rants of Princeton Stevie boy – which of course made my side split in laughter – but maybe there is a light bulb about to go off somewhere that Stevie Boy of course will miss. Two shining facts stand out: (1) all of this fuss is over a temporary spike in the last few months which Stevie Boy thinks is a new trend (OK, I’ll wait for the rest of you to stop laughing so hard); and (2) Princeton Stevie’s entire “model” rests on the assumption that there is a fixed percentage of new migrants that get apprended as that is the right way to interpret how many got through.
I’m sorry but the second assumption is the kind of stupidity Princeton Stevie boy is known for. Let’s just imagine that those three months are the same amount of new migrants but the rise in apprehensions came from greater border patrol enforcement. Now Trump could take a victory lap I guess but basic logic would suggest that the number of migrants in the U.S. would have gone down. Only a village idiot would say this is evidence that the number of migrants rose. But this is what Princeton Stevie boy is saying he has hard evidence for. Yes – Princeton Stevie Boy is even dumber than Trump!
Menzie’s EconoFact link by Jennifer Hunt of Rutgers):
“The population of undocumented immigrants in the United States has not grown for a decade. In fact, a sharp drop in the number of unauthorized Mexican immigrants has caused the undocumented population to shrink from 12.2 million and stabilize at around 11.1 million by 2014, according to the Pew Research Center.”
OK – this was written in early 2017 so some have asked for more up to date information. The most recent Pew research written late last yeargoes to the end of 2016:
https://www.pewhispanic.org/2018/11/27/u-s-unauthorized-immigrant-total-dips-to-lowest-level-in-a-decade/
“The number of unauthorized immigrants in the U.S. fell to its lowest level in more than a decade, according to new Pew Research Center estimates based on 2016 government data. The decline is due almost entirely to a sharp decrease in the number of Mexicans entering the country without authorization.
But the Mexican border remains a pathway for entry by growing numbers of unauthorized immigrants from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Because of them, Central America was the only birth region accounting for more U.S. unauthorized immigrants in 2016 than in 2007.
There were 10.7 million unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S. in 2016, down from a peak of 12.2 million in 2007, according to the new estimates.
The total is the lowest since 2004. It is tied to a decline of 1.5 million people in the number of Mexican unauthorized immigrants from 2007 to 2016.”
I understand that Princeton Stevie Boy claims to have some model that can update this to this year but it is based on the really stupid nonsense he excels in. Trump claims the figure is 30 million but what does DHS report?
https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/population-estimates/unauthorized-resident
This shows a report written in December 2018 that has information as late as January 2015.
“DHS estimates that 12.0 million illegal aliens were living in the United States in January 2015”.
OK – Pew is more up to date than DHS. And both sources contradict the intellectual garbage ala Trump.
I have always thought (or maybe assumed is the better word) that the Canadian government and Canadian society were pretty friendly towards Asian immigrants. This paper by one of the better female bloggers paints a different story:
https://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2019/03/do-chinese-canadians-struggle-in-the-labour-market.html
I’ll be honest, I tend to pay attention more when Jewish or Asian citizens are getting the shaft by the system. These are two groups that tend to be very literate, value a quality education, and not thrill in gang-banging and degenerate culture. Yeah, there are some Asian gangs in Chinatowns etc, but it’s just my subjective feeling that Asians don’t tend to wear that as any kind of “badge of honor” which we might see in other minority cultures.
Why do we need such a highly restrictive immigration policy? Shouldn’t the default position be to allow all comers entry except for extraordinary cases? Steven Kopits is certainly wrong about the reason families from Central America are coming here (it’s violence and global climate change, not higher paying jobs), but either way we will be better off both morally and economically if we allow immigrants at the southern border to enter the US and settle here. After all, without the economic output from those immigrants, who is going to support Steven Kopits and Sammy and Bruce Hall and CoRev in their retirement?
@2slugbaits
Immigrants like Melania and her parents?? What’s the market demand for age 60+ prostitutes?? I saw “Princeton”Kopits’ suit on FOX news and he does kinda dress like a pimp.
If that doesn’t work out, we can get “Princeton”Kopits a job working for Li Yang as a liaison for Chinese entrepreneurs with the state government of Florida:
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/03/a-florida-massage-parlor-owner-has-beehttps://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article227186429.htmln-selling-chinese-execs-access-to-trump-at-mar-a-lago/
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article227186429.html
I see bright things in “Princeton”Kopits future and he can have CoRev ride along as “Head of Farm Commodities Analysis”. I can see it now as Kopits and CoRev road trip down to Palm Beach Gardens Florida……..
https://youtu.be/LhXizOSz-mQ?t=48
“Steven Kopits is certainly wrong about the reason families from Central America are coming here (it’s violence and global climate change, not higher paying jobs)”.
My point exactly. But hey Stevie can inflate an issue with his own made up “data” and absurd modeling. It is what he do.
2slugs, ” Shouldn’t the default position be to allow all comers entry except for extraordinary cases? … but either way we will be better off both morally and economically.\…” What a load of bran washed BS. Default position is actually what is in place, but with a limit and controls to which you object. Morally is just virtue signalling with no value other than making you and those like you feel better. Economically better off? Wer’t you and yours complaining about the US’s slow growth of wages and then unfairness of the wealth differences. How does your open borders solution help those problems?
At least Steven Kopits’ proposal is an attempt at solving them. While we are living through you solution, and all we have is you and your fellow travelers complaints about the current controls .
There is no response to your ignorant complaint about global climate change. They are coming from the least affected areas for climate change. Even more virtue signalling!?
CoRev Default position is actually what is in place
The use of “shouldn’t” indicates the subjunctive mood.
Economically better off?
Yes. I don’t know how you model economic growth, but the usual approach is something like a Cobb-Douglas function with a nonlinear interaction term between labor and capital.
Wer’t you and yours complaining about the US’s slow growth of wages and then unfairness of the wealth differences.
Concerns about income & wealth inequality refer to differences between the top 1% and the 99%. I don’t think immigration has much to do with that inequality. As to the effect on wage growth, the literature doesn’t support the prejudice that immigration makes native workers worse off.
As to climate change in Central America:
https://www.pri.org/stories/2019-02-06/climate-change-overlooked-driver-central-american-migration
or this:
https://climateandsecurity.org/2019/04/17/central-america-climate-drought-migration-and-the-border/
or a gazillion other stories about persistent drought in Central America.
2slugs, please stop conflating short term changing weather with climate, a long term, multiple decades or 30 years, statistical measurement.
“As to the effect on wage growth, the literature doesn’t support the prejudice that immigration makes native workers worse off.” asks the native workers during the Obama administration. Or read this article: “Illegal Immigration Hurts The Economy & Depresses Wages. Period.” https://nationaleconomicseditorial.com/2017/05/06/illegal-immigration-hurts-economy-depresses-wages/
Your first 2 answers are just distractions.
CoRev Wow! An economics piece written by a guy with obvious expertise in the subject matter…a B.A. in ancient & medieval history. I guess we should just ignore all of that academic literature. And we should ignore the empirical studies using “natural experiments” as well. I mean, who can argue with someone who studied Henri Pirenne’s work on 8th century trade and coinage? And I’m sure his knowledge of inflation under the Emperor Diocletian probably qualifies him to discuss Fed policy.
According the UN drought in the northern triangle has been increasing since the 1960s, but whether you want to call it “climate change” or “weather change” over the last several years is irrelevant for purposes of this discussion. This discussion is about why immigrants are fleeing the northern triangle. Steven Kopits believes it’s because they are looking for higher paying jobs. You endorsed that view. I’m arguing that their primary motivation is year after year after year after year after year of drought as well as violence.
CoRev,
Please stop making a complete fool of yourself with your constant ranting about weather versus climate. In another post you almost seemed to suggest that we have take into account ice age cycles of thousands of years before we can talk about “climate.” Note, meterologists study weather, climatologists study climate.
Yes, it may be that one has to look at 30-year averages to assess whether or not climate really is changing (and over 30 years the evidence is in , and yes, the climate is changing with global warming really happening). Weather is very short term. “How is the weather today”? It is a stretch to say it extends out a year or especially two years. You have gone way off the deep end on this, and no amount of reading Lindzen and Pielke etc. will save you.
And, sorry, unlike with farming, there is no such thing as a “gentleman climatologist.”
2slugs, another reference: “”… there is a “great risk” of exhausting the workforce for the agricultural sector, because today the average age of the worker in the countryside is around 50. In my opinion, besides the fact that climate change is a tangible threat, just as important is the risk that the countryside will be left without producers.”” https://www.centralamericadata.com/en/article/home/Northern_Triangle_Losses_in_the_Agricultural_Sector
Most of today’s immigrants, in particular the families, are far younger than 50. So the drought in the agricultural regions/agricultural industry is likely not the major cause of this migration.
Now the kicker, if a drought, even an extended drought, is still not considered climate change unless it exceeds the time and conditions baselines. If it does exceed these baselines it would be considered normal regional climate.
Perhaps you could do the needed research to determine whether this past decade or two of drought exceeds the norm.
Barkley, you totally misunderstood the reference to reference to climate cycles/oscillations. I used glaciations and seasons as examples of cycles. It is not uncommon for those who believe CO2 is the only/main driver of climate to be ignorant of the oscillations. As you appear to be, as evidenced by this comment of yours: “(and over 30 years the evidence is in , and yes, the climate is changing with global warming really happening). Wow! climate change is measured ONLY by temperature change?
BTW, when hasn’t climate changed? I can easily point to periods when temperatures changed both positively and negatively, and weather and climate.
It is also not uncommon to have novices about climate to not have heard of terms such as the Holocene Climate Optimum (HCO), or the Minoan Warm period, or the Roman Warm Period, or the Medieval Warm Period, and the current Modern Warm Period. I am unsure that you actually know of these established periods and from your comment that the length of the Modern Warm Period is longer than 30 years. More importantly nor is the current warming unprecedented because of these previous warm periods.
Please stop making a complete fool of yourself. You are clearly a novice about climate and how and why it changes. You are not even at the level of a “gentleman” climatologist.
CoRev: Just curious — what’s your degree in?
CoRev,
Were you not previously informed that I have been working on climate models for nearly half a century and have published on the matter numerous times with lots of citations. I am the last person here that can remotely called a “novice” on these matters. That you came out with that suggests that not only are you are a fool, you are a complete idiot.
And again, you have been spouting worthless drivel on weather versus climate, just, just out and out gibberish. So just top wasting everybody’s time with this nonsense. When you diss somebody on this you just demonstrate that you are worthless lying garbage.
Barkley color me totally UNIMPRESSED by someone who claims expertise in climate with “have been working on climate models for nearly half a century” and when citing a relevant paper its on Chaos theory of climate.
Since you are proud of your climate modelling experience, please list the number of successful predictions from your climate model(s). If that’s too difficult list the the number of successful predictions from other climate model(s).
BTW, since you consider being able to model is important, I too worked on several models which were implemented. One was successfully used for years to estimate COST values before REQUESTING funding and contracting. I also worked on the space program, the ultimate in physical modeling, to get man on the moon and other space vehicles, AND BACK TO EARTH! Some of those model implementations had NEVER been successful before our efforts.
The value of a science is its ability to SUCCESSFULLY predict. Your answer to the above question/request, especially relative to your own modelling, should be expansive.
BTW, by ignoring my point about climate cycles you have confirmed your lack of knowledge of them. I also asked another question which you ignored: “BTW, when hasn’t climate changed?”
Because of these failures I have to repeat: “Please stop making a complete fool of yourself. You are clearly a novice about climate and how and why it changes. You are not even at the level of a “gentleman” climatologist.”
Menzie asks: “CoRev: Just curious — what’s your degree in?”
My response. Which one? At which level? I readily admit that none were in economics.
I also admit to studying climate for a couple of decades and following economists/economists.
CoRev: PhD. Master’s. Feel free to answer either, both.
Menzie, not interested. You’ve had enough fun.
BTW, as I have now repeated several times, I am one of the few who have a medallion, at least part of which, flew to the moon and back on Apollo 11. That was both science and engineering of the highest order for its day.
CoRev: So no advanced degree?
Menzie, interpret my reticence as you wish. Are you comparing male appendages now? What i wonder why so concerned? Suffice it to say I have been successful in my field.(s)
CoRev: No, you questioned other’s ability to analyze on the basis of credentials.
Seems appropriate to reciprocate.
CoRev: Well, I count about 190 GoogleScholar citations to Rosser’s work on environment/climate, plus one Journal of Economic Perspectives paper on the subject; I’d be happy with that. How many citations to your work on climate do you have?
Menzie As I said it wouldn’t have mattered what I answered to your questions, you would have found a different point with which to attack. As you just did.
you also conflate education credentials with knowledge: “No, you questioned other’s ability to analyze on the basis of credentials. ” No! I questioned Barkley’s and others knowledge of climate on the basis of familiarity of the climate’s principal components and its cyclical drivers. Again, you mistake an education with knowledge. On climate you appear to be as lacking in knowledge as Barkley. I, previously , challenged you on your knowledge of its principal components and you failed.
I see later on you cite the number of Barkley’s Google Scholar citations. You might be surprised by this, but those of us who live and work OUTSIDE THE PUBLISH OR PERISH environment aren’t impressed that as a credential. With that many cites it is just curious why he didn’t/couldn’t list his successful predictions from his climate model(s). I see you are impressed by the number of them, but failing to list his successful predictions leaves doubt as to their quality/validity.
He could resolve that doubt quickly and simply or not. You have done so with your prediction of the soybean spot price prediction: ” Hence, my best guess of soybean prices one year from today is 872. “, which is still awaiting validation.
BTW, my position on farmer concerns over weather being an important and often most important consideration for farmers has been confirmed in the 2019/20 growing/harvesting season. This comment is what I consider seminal to my position. https://econbrowser.com/archives/2018/06/meanwhile-back-in-iowa#comment-210617
”
CoRev
June 13, 2018 at 2:30 pm
Menzie, please quit mis-applying Economics issues over agricultural or any other industry. Instead of what would be the profits that might have been have been provided the world market wasn’t perturbed by weather. I’m surprised someone from the Upper Midwest doesn’t realize the basics of Ag pricing. Tariffs or other trade barriers/restrictions only are part of what makes up the price. As an economist you are ignoring annual supply and demand.
Ag especially is dominated by weather (world-wide) and area planted. Every planting season is a crap shoot with harvest amounts that can range from amounts too little to spend money on fuel for the equipment or all the way to bumper crop worrying about storage. For the Farmer one severe storm, early or late frost, too much rain, too little rain, rain at the wrong time, fire, etc. can wipe out a year’s worth of work. Only after the crop is being harvested or in planning what to plant can the farmer really worry about prices….” It will soon be impossible to say this year’s US AG market was not perturbed by weather.
Barkley let me explain my position and why I am unimpressed.
Using Chaos Theory as a tool: “Chaos theory is a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.” is a serious problem when the CONDITIONS studied are ill defined. (from WIKI) Your failure to address the climate cycles/oscillations was a story telling us you had missed several of the key conditions. Whether the initial conditions settings were perfectly defined, missing or ignoring several key conditions means the value of any model, chaos or physical, would make their results meaningless when compared to reality.
It is the REAL WORLD in which we live. A good model will predict those real world conditions. Ignoring several of those KEY conditions is a sure signal of ignorance, and models built on it May be useless.
To further understand my concerns: “Summary 7: Chaos Theory for Beginners; an introduction
A tiny difference in initial parameters will result in a completely different behavior of a complex system.
The Uncertainty Principle prohibits accuracy. Therefore, the initial situation of a complex system can not be accurately determined, and the evolution of a complex system can therefore not be accurately predicted.
Complex systems often seek to settle in one specific situation. This situation may be static (Attractor) or dynamic (Strange Attractor).” http://www.abarim-publications.com/ChaosTheoryIntroduction.html#.XQOeZyZ7k5k
Too much of Catastrophic Climate Theory is based upon ignoring “Complex systems often seek to settle in one specific situation. ” and that “dynamic (Strange Attractor)” applies. When, in fact, we have a great amount of data showing that climate seeks to settle in well defined LIMITED situations, temperature, moisture/humidity and atmospheric pressure, all operate within well studied limits. There are no examples outside those limits, EXCEPT IN THE CLIMATE MODELS, and the minds and imaginations of the climate catastrophists..
CoRev,
I am going to have to stop responding to you on climate issues because you are so off the wall and hopeless, just like how you went on and on about soybean prices after you were shown to be just screamingly wrong.
let me start by simply noting that whatever you were doing in projecting costs, that is very easy and is not the same as physically modeling an actual moon shot. This is just a joke (and I shall join Menzie in inquiring about your ed background, and will also add, “Whom were you working for and at what level when you made these very boring and not hard to do cost projections?”).
I am not going to revisit my long history with climate modeling as this has been gone over here before with you other than to note that it has multiple phases, with the earliest phase not involving chaos or catastrophe theory, although that was when I first learned about the Lorenz model discussed in that very simple minded introduction to chaos theory you linkied to. What an idiot you are. This is just tripe. Want to know about chaos theory, go read one of my books on nonlinear dynamics, some of which also include discussions of modeling climate and combined climate-economics models. I am not going to bother answering your silly questions further as we already went through this before, with you making a complete fool of yourself, although maybe you have forgotten it or did not realize it.
In any case, do please stop trying to diss people here over the “weather versus climate” issue, where you have also made a fool of yourself. You may be a gentleman farmer, but no amount of reading odd and scattered sources will make you into a gentleman climatologist.
Oh, and do remember that you a few posts above you called me a “novice” on this issue, but now you want to debate me over decades of work I have been involved in. Get lost, you worthless lying jerk.
Barkley, my request was very simple answer. Just list the successful predictions from your model(s). Only a narcissistic thinks his work is being questioned, when asked to list its successful predictions. Or it is possible that there are no successful predictions. There are so few in the climate modeling field.
“…whatever you were doing in projecting costs, that is very easy and is not the same as physically modeling an actual moon shot. ” Then why hadn’t the cost estimate (NOT PROJECTION) been done before? But I do agree that implementing the space program was an accomplishment, including our portion of it. Our portiuon was based upon relatively simple math, but had never been successfully done, until we, the 3rd to try, succeeded.
I see you want to play the comparing male appendage game with Menzie. I’ll let you and Menzie shko në poshtë (Albanian for go in the corner) and do your little comparison.
Unless you can list more than a few successful and validated predictions from your model(s), and because you have made nothing more than empty claims, I have to repeat: “Please stop making a complete fool of yourself. You are clearly a novice about climate and how and why it changes. You are not even at the level of a “gentleman” climatologist.”
Show us you actually know something about the climate. Failing to answer any of my questions and challenges, you have not shown any knowledge about the climate yet.
This will be my last comment on this.
Sorry, CoRev, you have no standing to make your demands without answering the numerous questions put to you by me and Menzie and others. As it is, I thank Menzie for standing up for me. I note that some of the more important work I have done on these issues is not specifically Google Scholar cited, either because buried in books or just buried in larger projects, and so on. But I suspect anybody still reading this gets it.
So, I am going to go out on this by telling a real story, as I am completely disgusted by CoRev’s apparent claim that his somehow having some input into modeling a cost projection for some input to the moon mission was equivalent to actually physically modeling the moon mission itself. I mean, the lying jerk even capitalized his silly claim. So now I shall tell a real story about how the US got to the moon.
This involves my late old man, yes, J. Barkley Rosser [Sr.], whom I have always recognized as being more mathematically brilliant than I am and more important in world history than I am. This story is one reason why. My old man played a crucial role in getting us to the moon.
So, he had long been on the secret space committee of the US government from WW II on, one of its deepest advisers. As the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo programs proceeded there was a growing problem. The longer they were in space, the further they landed from where they were supposed to. Yeah, CoRev, this is the actual physical modeling, and Houston was messing up. It was my old man who figured it out and then they got it fixed.
The problem was that the clocks on the ground and the clocks in the space vehicles were on different times, off by about 1/365. The ground was on solar time while the space vehicles were on sidereal time, tied to the stars. These systems were off by one day per year due to the revolution of the earth around the sun. So, the longer they were up, the further off they landed. Needless to say, if this had not been fixed, a shot to the moon would have missed with our astronauts going off into deep space to die.
But of course, CoRev, your calculations on cost projections for inputs to the moon mission were far more important than that.
Barkley, BS. Mercury consisted of 26 missions. Only 6 were manned and 4 of the 6 manned and all 20 others were sub-orbital. Only 2 were orbital.
Gemini consisted of 19 missions, 10 manned and 9 unmanned. nearly all of them were orbital.
All of these missions were tracked from launch through re-entry. They were also in REAL TIME voice and data communications. with a world -wide tracking and data collection network.
By Apollo the tracking and communication network were perfected and was able to track and communicate all the way to the moon, except for when the vehicle passed behind it.
me data an
Moreover, I don’t remember any of the manned missions taking more than a fraction of an hour to be recovered after splash down.
Explain to all of us how your father’s story applies to any let alone all of these missions.
Incidentally I logged and analyzed a lot of that real it was never a day off.
You also need to go back and read my comments as your understanding of them is totally messed up.
Why have you still NOT listed your successful climate model predictions? Were there any?
What an idiot you are, CoRev. Of course all the flights were tracked so they knew where they landed. But they were landing farther and farther from where they were supposed to the longer they were up. This was not widely publicized as it was an embarrassment and a mystery until it was figured out by my old man.
Oh, you can go read his first book still in print, published in 1946, The Mathematics of Space Flight. A classic.
Barkley, doubling down on BS and continued failure to provide any evidence of your successful predictions is surely a sign they never happened. BTW, you seemed to not know that these missions were tracked with you first claim, and you also seem to not know what suborbital means. C’mon man why so desperate? It’s making you look foolish, and removes any doubt of your standing in both Climate and now Space modeling.
Now that I’ve pointed out the fact the vehicles were in constant communications, tracking its given location in 3 dimensional space is kinda important. Time differences are minor compared to the vehicles orbit/location, which can be very dynamic, changing in all 3 of the vectors when compared to a point on planet. Which, BTW, is also changing, but is predictable. Orbital changes are anything but predicable until a stable orbit is achieved. Which to an inquiring mind might then begin to understand the term window placed before the key orbital periods, launch, orbit insertion and re-entry, and why several Earth orbits were done before leaving for the moon. With repetition and improved equipment and more and better real time data we did get better at reducing the sizes of those windows from early initial calculations. Tracking data was passed bi-bidirectionally between the vehicle and the earth stations. Again, how was any clock difference important in these calculations, and more importantly missed?
BTW, I never mentioned which part of the space program in which I worked, but you might be getting a hint from my comments. So when I call BS, you might want to listen.
WOW! After writing my response to Barkley i started to remove my Climate sites, and found this on what Menzie describes as a misinformation site: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/06/16/how-an-atomic-clock-will-get-humans-to-mars-on-time/
How an Atomic Clock Will Get Humans to Mars on Time
In it is this: “Navigators today tell a spacecraft where to go by calculating its position from Earth and sending the location data to space in a two-way relay system that can take anywhere from minutes to hours to deliver directions. This method of navigation means that no matter how far a mission travels through the solar system, our spacecraft are still tethered to the ground, waiting for commands from our planet.”…
“Instead, navigators use giant antennas on Earth to send a signal to the spacecraft, which bounces it back to Earth. Extremely precise clocks on the ground measure how long it takes the signal to make this two-way journey. The amount of time tells them how far away the spacecraft is and how fast it’s going. Only then can navigators send directions to the spacecraft, telling it where to go.”
That’s how its worked for decades. I’m sure much to Barkley’s amazement.
Willy,
“Voters? Illegal immigrants? Really? Um… Congratulations, sammy, you are a winner!”
Thanks. This is about voters. They are “Undocumented Future Democrats” Why else are they advocating open borders and Motor Voter registration?
sammy I think it would be more accurate to say that opposition to immigrants is all about the fear conservative white voters have of losing their current position of privilege. Red states are overrepresented in Congress and the Electoral College for lots of reasons, and redneck conservative voters think that’s just the way God intended.
Why else are they advocating open borders and Motor Voter registration?
Maybe it’s because someone will have to support your sorry butt in retirement.
2slugs, “According to a CBS News/YouGov poll, a full 40% of black Americans feel that illegal immigrant families should be deported back to their country of origin.
Compare that to just 20% of black Americans who believe that detained illegal immigrant families should be released while they await an asylum hearing, for which many do not return. Only 20% of white Americans agree with “Catch and Release.”” https://www.dailywire.com/news/32271/poll-black-americans-prefer-deportation-illegal-paul-bois
BTW, who is supporting your sorry butt in retirement?
CoRev: I get the impression 2slugbaits is not retired.
Menzie, IIRC, he said he retired from the Fed Govt a couple of years ago.
CoRev is right. I retired almost two years ago and decided to do volunteer tutoring (math & history…one of my first degrees was in history) through a local public college.
CoRev Those polls are yet more evidence of the sorry state of economic knowledge in this country. And it shows that race is no barrier to economic ignorance.
BTW, who is supporting your sorry butt in retirement?
Same as yours. Retirements are supported by economic output from labor and capital. You want to reduce economic output.
2slugs you injected race into the discussion: “…the fear conservative white voters have of losing their current position of privilege.” I just showed it was not a racial issue at all, but a personal economics issue. Worse, you claim that individuals do not understand their own economic situation? What an elitist.
Your response to: ” …who is supporting your sorry butt in retirement?” is meaninglessly general.
You can do better
CoRev You misunderstood my comment. I was talking about “…opposition to immigrants is all about the fear conservative white voters have of losing their current position of privilege.” I was not talking about immigrants being seen as an economic threat. It should have been clear from the context that I was referring to the threat to political privilege that white conservatives voters enjoy. Recall that sammy was talking about immigrants giving Democrats more political power. Apparently he sees that as a bad thing and would prefer that Republicans be overrepresented. Currently the political base for white conservatives tends to be in rural states that are already overrepresented in Congress and the Electoral College. I was not referring to any perceived economic threat that immigrants might pose for various ethnic groups.
2slugs, stop the rationalizing. AGAIN, You interjected race, and were arrogant about it
CoRev Hmmmm…I didn’t realize that conservative white voters was a racial group. I always thought it was a political demographic.
2slugs, without the insertion of white voters it c/would have been a political demographic, but your arrogance and political PREJUDICE just couldn’t resist your racial drivel. Sad really!
Sammy, you are winning the derpweb prize again. Two in a row! Pile it on and go for the hat trick!
“Undocumented Future Democrats” is great. Thanks for the laughs, even if you didn’t know you were a clown.
In Sammy’s world Hispanics are genetically incapable of supporting a Republican. Or is it that border patrol can read their minds and they shoot conservative Republicans on sight? C’mon Sammy – take a stand!
What makes sammy, or anybody else, think that illegal immigrants are all Hispanic, let along potential Democrats? Some are Hispanic, but none can vote until they become citizens. There isn’t much of a pathway to citizenship that I’m aware of these days, so whatever their political opinions may or may not be, the chances of illegal immigrants voting one way or another is laughable. Proving that sammy needs to get a little fresh air and turn off the TV for a while.
That should all be way to obvious to need stating; however, it may prompt sammy to say something else that’s beyond dumb and make the trifecta.
Willie: Doesn’t matter. If they are non-Caucasian, they are essentially Hispanic for sammy If they are Caucasian, then they will be granted honorary Norwegian nationality under the president’s Norwegian clause.
Trump had a few Polish reporters over to the White House. One blonde lady from Poland asked him a few questions that struck me as sucking up to Trump Fox & Friends style. I literally thought Trump was thinking – hey I should take this white hottie up to my bed room right now!
Thank you for visiting the migratorbrowser.com.
Hans thinks he just made a funny. Hey Hans – we are ALL laughing. Laughing at you not with you.
I heard some audio on the evening news of Republican Senator James Lankford saying something AMAZINGLY asinine related to the immigrant children being moved to Fort Sill. I will do my damnedest to find that on the internet over the next 48–72 hours and either post it in this thread or whatever Professor Chinn’s most recent thread is. I think Professor Chinn will find it interesting, as will some of the more educated regular readers here. It’s apt to raise some eyebrows I think. Not all of the TV stories get posted online, but I think there’s at least a 75% chance they will post it and I can find it—trust me, it’s an eyebrow raiser. Here is the announcement story that was done on the same station about 24 hours earlier The anchor (though not what I would call a “great journalist”) is one of the better anchors locally, she’s responsible type, and if nothing else what I would call “easy on the eyes”
https://www.koco.com/article/government-to-use-army-post-in-oklahoma-as-emergency-shelter-for-migrant-children/27925317
Ft. Sill is where they held Geronimo. Ft. Sill is an Army Training & Doctrine Command (TRADOC) installation. It’s where the Army trains folks going into artillery. The nearest town is Lawton, OK. Typical Army town…used car dealers, Chinese & Korean food takeout, tattoo parlors, nudie bars, payday loans, and bail bond places. Nice place to raise a family. I’m sure those unaccompanied minors will thrive.
PGL, then please promote me to Chief Sacrificial Lam. [or goat for
you choicers]
Not sure what to think of this exactly. There are some negative aspects. But I’m wagering this is better than being held in an ICE facility with ICE goons supervising:
https://altaonline.com/yolo-county-jail-immigrant-children-prison/