Nonfarm payroll surprises (release) on upside 675K vs. Bloomberg consensus 400K, private NFP 654K vs 478K. The 90% confidence interval for changes is +/- 120K (BLS). Still, the upside surprise does not change the general pattern of key business cycle indicators.
Figure 1: Nonfarm payroll employment from February release (chartreuse), January (red), December ’21 (teal), Bloomberg consensus for February (pink square), all in 000’s, s.a. February consensus calculated adding Bloomberg consensus of 3/1 to January preliminary. Source: BLS, Bloomberg, author’s calculations.
Figure 2: Nonfarm payroll employment (dark blue), Bloomberg consensus of 3/1 (blue +), industrial production (red), personal income excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (green), manufacturing and trade sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (light blue), and monthly GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), all log normalized to 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Source: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA, via FRED, IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers) (3/1/2022 release), NBER, and author’s calculations.
Last observation: Wage increases decelerated in February, and average real wages remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
Figure 3: Average hourly earnings in nonfarm payroll employment (production and nonsupervisory), in $/hour (black), CPI (chartreuse), both in logs 2020M02=0. NBER defined recession dates peak-to-trough. Source: BLS, NBER, and author’s calculations.
Good news on the US front which is not going to get a lot of press as what is happening in Ukraine is so much more consequential that whatever good news or sacrifices we may be going through.
Puts everything in a different light doesn’t it. Especially when you see small children with their 100% innocent eyes traveling with their parents. Parents doing the impossible and hiding much of the harshness from them. These people are the real MVPs. They make me feel guilty about all the things I complain about in life, when for what I’ve put into it, I’ve gotten much more than I ever gave,
It’s interesting that the Germans have reacted more swiftly and appropriately than the U.S. First they led the way in sending new shipments of Javelin and Stinger missiles to Ukraine. Now it appears they may decide that universal service should be reinstituted.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/germans-tout-return-conscription-military-163346436.html
Wolfgang Hellmich, the SPD defence spokesman in the Bundestag, told a local newspaper last week that compulsory service helps to “promote a sense of community”.
That is shortly after this announcement:
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announced a plan to beef up the German military on Sunday, pledging €100 billion ($112.7 billion) of the 2022 budget for the armed forces and repeating his promise to reach the 2% of gross domestic product spending on defense in line with NATO demands.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724
Perhaps this might work in the U.S. again. It would be an opportunity for young men and women to gain some real work experience while (especially those who have dropped out of school or stopped after high school), as Wolfgang Hellmich said, “promote a sense of community”. Maybe an existential threat does open one’s eyes to what is important.
You are really stupid. Germany and the US are working together..something called NATO. OH wait you and Trump tried to disband NATO
This is actually an even more moronic statement by Bruce than you note.. Not to mention astoundingly ironic. I’m mildly surprised this hasn’t “drawn fire” from our cerebral blog host. No doubt busy with family things (and happy he is) As it was the Germans who were obstructing Ukraine from getting weapons for multiple years now.
https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2022/01/19/germany-holds-its-ground-on-denying-weapons-for-ukraine/
https://www.dw.com/en/why-germany-refuses-weapons-deliveries-to-ukraine/a-60483231
https://www.npr.org/2022/01/26/1075717114/germany-baffles-some-allies-with-its-refusal-to-supply-weapons-to-ukraine
No one, other than donald trump, worked harder to screw the Ukrainians out of a better ability (equipment-wise and technology-wise) to defend themselves than the German government.
Agreed. Ukraine first.
https://news.yahoo.com/sen-lindsey-graham-calls-russians-050551219.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Lindsey Graham suggests the Ides of March solution (where the Roman Senate murdered Julius Caesar). A lot of people are condemning him for suggesting someone in the Kremlin kill Putin. I get that is the politically correct response but to be honest I would love it if Putin were taken out. Then again after 1/6/2021, I was screaming for an Ides of March take down of Trump. Someone needs to remove Putin from power but rather than kill this war criminal have him dragged to Hague to face prosecution.
There’s only one reason twinkle-toed Lindsey made that comment. He’s an attention hog. The little ….. admits it himself.
Maybe they can just remove him from power and put him in a jail cell somewhere without outright offing him. Getting him removed from power is the key thing.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=Hy9b
January 4, 2018
United States Employment-Population Ratios for Men and Women, * 2017-2022
* Employment age 16 and over
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=HAvc
January 4, 2018
United States Employment-Population Ratios for Men and Women, * 2017-2022
* Employment age 16 and over
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sxNb
January 4, 2018
Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2017-2022
* Employment age 16 and over
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sxNk
January 4, 2018
Employment-Population Ratios for White, Black and Hispanic, * 2017-2022
* Employment age 16 and over
(Indexed to 2017)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sxz6
January 4, 2018
Employment-Population Ratios, * 2017-2022
* Bachelor’s Degree and Higher, Some College or Associate Degree, High School Graduates, No College; Employment age 25 and over
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=sxzm
January 4, 2018
Employment-Population Ratios, * 2017-2022
* Bachelor’s Degree and Higher, Some College or Associate Degree, High School Graduates, No College; Employment age 25 and over
(Indexed to 2017)
There are data and then there is perception. The Hill has a recent post in which this is discussed (Video and separate text).
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/597010-on-key-issues-a-struggling-biden-embraces-trump
The pendulum may be swinging back.
Trump advisor Douglas MacGregor says Zelensky is a puppet and Putin Ned’s to hit Ukraine. You are a Trump toadie so I’m sure you agree with this traitor
03/02/2022 02/02/2022
2 year t bill: 1.31 1.34
10 year t bill 1.72 1.96
.41 .62
does it matter why the “flee to safety”?
Additionally,
Gold – 2 Feb 2022 – $1,807; 2 Mar 2022 -$1,928; 4 Mar 2022 – $1,971.
The Buffett Indicator- 2 Feb 2022 – 205%; 2 Mar 2022 – 185%; 4 Mar 2022 – 182%.
All quotes at 4:00PM Eastern.
I thought it was interesting, I was reading one of these banker report type thingies (maybe Menzie can guess the one, hint, not GS). And I’m paraphrasing here, but it basically said because of the war, backward-looking economic data would take a back seat vs politicians’ and forecasters’ statements.
What about high frequency and Nowcasts?? Do we stlll not trust those, or…… ?? That’s an earnest question in case you’re wondering.
Some of the standard economic and financial stuff still applies, even when war is the source of the shock:
Euro down vs the dollar and the yen; proximity and economic and financial exposure matter.
Commodity exporters in better shape than commodity importers; Argentina doing better than Egypt.
Safe haven assets doing well, but with commodities are acting like safe haven assets because of the risk of supply shock from Russia and Ukraine. Gotta keep the supply shock in mind.
Risky assets were all hit initially, but differentiation between risky assets is already underway. Fo instance, U.S. mortgages were under big pressure, but are recovering, a happy sign for housing.
Those sorts of issues can be driven through current account analysis in the usual way to see where central banks are going to need to raise rates because of the war. (Turkey, anyone?)
There is plenty of uncertainty in every detail, but the big unknowns are the size and persistence of the shock. The extent of the war, the severity and duration of sanctions and Russia’s ability to get around sanctions will dictate the size and persistence of the shock. We really don’t know much about those things.
A long-winded way of saying the analytic tools still work, but we’re in the wild west when it comes to inputs to the analysis.
JP Morgan’s delivery times index appears to be lowering. I assume we can at least take that as some good news.
Some interesting headlines on Neon gas lately:
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2022/03/low-on-gas-ukraine-invasion-chokes-supply-of-neon-needed-for-chipmaking/
If employers bought inflation swaps, wouldn’t they pay for inflating payrolls?
“If you start taking what’s pure in a man and you start putting it on a bill of sale, somehow you can’t help destroying it. In a way, all that business makes it so a man don’t have anything left to give.” – Sidney Bechet, “Treat It Gentle”
You exist in an alternate reality.
https://news.yahoo.com/former-national-security-advisor-john-203811337.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
For all of those Trump fan boys who argue that he would have stood up to Putin – John Bolton has blown apart your lies. Putin knew if Trump won a 2nd term, he would have destroyed NATO and Putin could just roll over one nation after another.
Klain, Rice, et sent to Europe VP Harris to resolve this crisis.
Another feather in Kamala’s bonnet!
This would not be happening if you Trump was still POTUS. So says 62% of likely voters polled. You guys are going to need to ‘find’ at least three truckloads of mail-in poll responses to steal that one.
23 January 2017 – Oil – $52.65.
22 January 2018 – Oil – 63.67
22 January 2019 – Oil – $52.98
23 January 2020 – Oil – $60.69; US Average Gasoline – $2.37
20 January 2021 – Oil – $53.01
20 January 2022 – Oil – $84.76
22 February 2022 – 0il – $91.61
4 March 2022 – Oil – $115.30; Average US Gasoline – $3.84.
Putin financed the rape of Ukraine with the excess oil profits from Biden’s energy policies.
In conclusion, Biden and Harris can’t spell ‘NATO.’ And, Klain, Rice, et al can’t keep them in the WH bunker 24/7/365.
T.S.
Maybe Biden and Harris can’t “spell NATO,” but they seem to have unified it against Putin, including even Victor Orban whom Tuvker Carlson is a big fan of and Tramp liked also. It remains the fact that Tramp criticized NATO and was widely reported to be prepared to pull out of it, quite aside from having thoroughly alienated most of its major leaders. Putin was waiting for Tramp to get reelected before moving on Ukraine as he did not want to embarrass him, but would have had no serious oppo from Tramp or NATo if your guy was in the WH now.
orban…. who knew the guy who scared krugman bc he is “conservative”
unified nato is like the crowd unified against alex nevsky in 1200.
your north atlantic focus is myopic!
whatever you think of the russian air force… a no fly zone is a trap!
A.,
On the Nevsky analogy, which I gather Russian propagandists are pushing as I am sure you did not think this one up on your own, do keep in mind that the Teutonic knights were the ones who were invading while Nevsky was defending against an illegitimate invasion.
So in the current situation it is the Russians who are the Terutonic knights while Nevsky and his people are the Ukrainians. But clearly you know so little about all this you were unable to figure this out and thus, yet again, a sucker for third rate Russian propaganda.
Then Oil collapses. It is a price bubble based on speculation. 50$$$ by summer???
If you are bucking for the most disgusting troll here you need to step up your game Bruce Hall has lapped you as Putins pet poodle
Those oil prices are fictional accounting. Government can set prices as pleased. A banker driven price spike are purely speculation.
Try harder it you post.
“Putin financed the rape of Ukraine with the excess oil profits from Biden’s energy policies.”
Nonsense. If you want to sell propaganda do yourself the favour and try intelligent and entertaining propaganda. If you lack the brain you can sinmply shut-up, no need to embarress youself.
pgloser,
Context is key:
Donald Trump assumed office in January 2017, committed to revamping US foreign policy and putting ‘America First’. The clear implication was that long-held international commitments would be sidelined where, in Trump’s view, the American interest was not being served. NATO, in the crosshairs of this approach, has managed to ride out much of the criticism Trump has levelled against it. Written off as ‘obsolete’ by the American president, it has fared better in the Trump era than many commentators had predicted. NATO exemplifies a tendency in US foreign policy, which pre-dates Trump, where open criticism stops short of abandonment. This pattern has continued since 2017 and indicates a preference for voice over exit. As such, it suggests that Trump’s foreign policy is not always as illogical as many have assumed. Logic is borne of institutional context: Trump has chosen to articulate voice where institutionalisation makes exit unviable. Institutional resilience in general and NATO’s case specifically has a wider relevance, both for transatlantic relations and international order.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/review-of-international-studies/article/trumps-foreign-policy-and-nato-exit-and-voice/CECD6A4DA95D3C177531E8C10A6E562B
More context:
And whereas Pence defended NATO in his remarks, Trump showed he still thinks little of the alliance, dismissing it as a “paper tiger,” according to a source.
“Are all of these nations going to stand by and watch perhaps millions of people be slaughtered as the onslaught continues?” Trump said, according to a source. “At what point do countries say, ‘No, we can’t take this massive crime against humanity?’ We can’t let it happen. We can’t let it continue to happen.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-renews-nato-criticism-after-russias-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAUG71m
So, Trump criticized other NATO nations for failing to pay their committed defense shares and Trump is supporting Putin?
Then, Trump criticizes NATO (including the current US administration for failing to provide real military aid and, once again, you claim that is Trump supporting Putin?
Well, maybe you might be interested that:
• https://www.dw.com/en/germany-commits-100-billion-to-defense-spending/a-60933724 (years late)
• https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/597056-sending-polish-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-a-green-light-says (months late)
The effete are waking up to the realization that diplomacy without the real threat of force is capitulation. Are you?
If you had a brain you might realize that your last bombastic quotes indicate a simple fact. Had your boy Trump still been President he would have terminated NATOand let Putin take over Ukraine. So your bombast about using force is just another one of your stupid lies
Bruce,
A lie that Trump repeatedly stated is that somehow other members of NATO were not contributing their fair shares to NATO. That is simply false. As it is, Trump negotiated what the US must pay down to equal what Germany pays, and Germany has always paid its required share. It was Trump who actually cut financial support for NATO, not any other member nation.
What Trump did whine about, and earlier presidents also complained about, although Trump made it into a case foe the US to fully withdraw from NATO, is the additional commitment to spend 2% pf GDP on defense in general. But note that is not expenditures directly on NATO per se, but on defense in general. Indeed a majority of NATO members have not been doing that while the US has, with Germany long not doing it. This was something worth whining about, and Germany as well as some others will now make that commitment thanks to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. But none of this was for NATO specifically.
Trump lied, and you supported his lie here, Bruce.
https://news.yahoo.com/john-bolton-says-trump-wouldnt-042933142.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
More from John Bolton – if Trump were President right now he would have just let Putin conquer Ukraine. And why not as Putin gave Trump the White House back in 2016. Trump has always been Putin’s little pet poodle.
pgl hearts Bolton. John “bomb, bomb, bomb” Bolton. If Bolton has his way, we wouldn’t have to worry about the economy any more…we’d all be dead.
https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2009/07/john-bolton-bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-bomb-iran/
But that’s the kind of guy pgl admires! What an idiot…a true chicken hawk all gussied up as a “progressive growth liberal.”
Lord you are a moron. While I have never been a Bolton fan he is right about Trump. But I guess you on Trumps payroll
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-05/Chinese-mainland-records-281-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-1899IHKFU5O/index.html
March 5, 2022
Chinese mainland reports 281 new COVID-19 cases
The Chinese mainland recorded 281 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Friday, with 102 linked to local transmissions and 179 from overseas, according to data from the National Health Commission.
A total of 166 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 1,500 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.
Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 110,539 with the death toll remaining unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.
Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-04/Chinese-mainland-records-294-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-187v6qHLqaQ/img/574b030048524974bea6149163d969d5/574b030048524974bea6149163d969d5.jpeg
Chinese mainland new imported cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-04/Chinese-mainland-records-294-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-187v6qHLqaQ/img/1ffa132b6d9145e0bc26a8f8773671b6/1ffa132b6d9145e0bc26a8f8773671b6.jpeg
Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-04/Chinese-mainland-records-294-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-187v6qHLqaQ/img/28c0814022f34787a51444f9e2040417/28c0814022f34787a51444f9e2040417.jpeg
China is about to find out that containment is not a viable strategy against Omicron 2.0. The big question is how effective their vaccines are against severe illness from that variant. The best case scenario is bad, the worst is horrible.
You throw out a lot of stuff about COVID and now you cite China which is notorious for providing really bad information. Let’s look at the background data.
COVID is a disease that kills the old and ill.
China’s demographics:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1101677/population-distribution-by-detailed-age-group-in-china/
(13.5% in 65 and over demographic; 4.8% in 75 and over)
US demographics:
https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/demo/tables/age-and-sex/2019/age-sex-composition/2019gender_table1.xlsx
(16.4% in 65 and over demographic; 6.6% in 75 and over)
So, China has a smaller percentage of its population in the “kill zone” although a much larger absolute number.
China’s obesity rate is <6% (World Heart Federation) while the U.S. is approximately 32% (USA Facts). Therein lies a big difference in one of the main factors.
Given the differences in demographics and obesity, China should be expected to have a lower rate of COVID deaths than the U.S., but not to the extent reported statistics show. It is claimed that Draconian measures have prevented the spread and deaths from COVID in China which statistics shows has the 2nd lowest deaths per 100K population in the world. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality… although the mortality rate for those infected is about the same as the U.S.
So, the question is: was China able to successfully isolate and prevent the spread of COVID because it was better prepared and knew the actions to take or has it vastly underreported the cases and deaths?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgecalhoun/2022/01/05/beijing-is-intentionally-underreporting-chinas-covid-death-rate-part-2/?sh=534bd53f73b8
Ltr is spinning but she is no where close to your level of COVID disinformation
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
March 4, 2022
Coronavirus
United States
Cases ( 80,895,651)
Deaths ( 983,486)
Deaths per million ( 2,942)
China
Cases ( 110,258)
Deaths ( 4,636)
Deaths per million ( 3)
United States 1 death per 82 cases
China 1 death per 24 cases
Just throwing out numbers.
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/20220305/e91de52a9c474f60a54c0e95141f0abf/c.html
March 5, 2022
Over 3.15 bln COVID-19 vaccine doses administered on Chinese mainland
BEIJING — The number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered on the Chinese mainland grew by around 5.41 million from the previous day to surpass 3.15 billion on Friday, data from the National Health Commission showed Saturday.
I would again like to walk through my Russian proposals
1. A No Fly Zone
As a practical matter, this involves NATO achieving air superiority in Ukraine. Air superiority would allow NATO in this flat, open country to grind down Russian assets on the ground, that is, Russian tanks, APCs, supply, artillery, etc. Make no mistake. This is a military confrontation with the Russians. Since Putin has declared sanctions an act of war, well, then war it is, it seems. I believe US air power would make short work of the Russians, but certainly not without losses, perhaps material losses. With the entry of US air power, Russia will have to either a) continue to fight until it either prevails or its forces are reduced to ashes, b) start a nuclear war and be nuked in return, or c) take Option 3, a generous settlement below.
2. Nuclear War
If the Russians want a nuclear war, well, they may want that in the future at any time anyway. I do not see that the US can predicate its actions on nuclear extortion. We have lots and lots and lots of nice nuclear weapons, too. If ‘Greater Russia’ means a vast, irradiated plane of glass to Putin, well, that’s the way it is.
3. A Generous Settlement
In this version, the Russians retreat to their bases, with lines as they existed on February 1st. The Russians purchase the occupied territories of Donbas and Crimea for $625 bn ($25 bn x 25 years), which the Ukrainians sell in a voluntary transaction, thereby, ending territorial disputes and allowing normalization of relations between Russia and Ukraine / Europe. The current round of sanctions are lifted when a deal is reached and the first $25 bn payment is received by Kyiv. The remaining sanctions are lifted in stages over 36 months, such that no sanctions will be left after three years of the signing of the agreement. Ukraine will be formally neutral and will not enter into NATO during the period of the agreement subject to Russia acting in a non-threatening way (as the military defines this). Ukraine will have no nukes on its territory during this period. However, Ukraine can cooperate with and acquire non-nuclear weapons from any provider, including NATO countries during the agreement, and can enter the EU if mutually agreeable. Russian and Ukraine will have normal relations, eg, provision of water to Crimea under normal commercial terms, transit of gas, etc, etc. Russian minorities in Ukraine may be offered certain guarantees (eg, Russian language education, etc.)
That’s the deal I would offer Putin. If he prefers nuclear war to Option 3, well, we’re going to have a nuclear war sooner or later anyway.
Thank God no one in our government reads your BS. Your first two ideas lead to WW2. The last is your usual stupid sell out. Stevie thinks this is all about him. Could someone tell this troll no one cares about the garbage he writes
I’m sure John Bolton, who pgl admires, would endorse Kopits proposals plus a few.
You repeated that lie?.I hope Trump is paying you well
Uh-Oh….. Looks like StinkyJersey Kopits has been obsessing over the “Risk” board game again. I wonder if StinkyJersey Steve pays his wife a monthly fee so she never attempts to violently invade his man cave?? Little does Steve know all he has to do is threaten to go longer than his usual once a week bath and he’s got the whole place to himself. Unilateral stink deterrence.
What is wrong with you, man?
Maybe you are so self absorbed to notice but your odious bloating has never been welcomed here. Don’t you have a Fqox and Friends appearance to prepare for.
I meant Herzog. As for you, Peegee, you are a bitter counter-puncher, vindictive and isolated. You know, I write and publish stuff. I don’t have any significant publication connections. I write something, and either someone picks it up, or they don’t.
What have you written in the last, say, twelve months that you published anywhere? You are simply endless bitterness, taking out your own issues on those around you.
@ Kopits
Are you telling us you have never paid to have your writings published, or put paid advertisements for your company/service in the same publications that pick up your “columns”?? Never ever??
Kids, Uncle Moses has got to hear/see the answer to this one.
I have never paid to have anything published, nor have I been paid material amounts to write. I have (had) a frame agreement with The Hill and had one with the UAE’s National and maybe have one with CNBC, but these are the online type of something like 1 cent for every thousand views, ie, effectively meaningless.
All these online outlets require content, lots and lots of content. Anyone can submit a piece. You can, too.
@ Kopits
OK, I take you at your word. I apologize for implying you did. You’ll at least allow me it’s not unheard of among people doing the style work you do. But it was unfair/rude of me to paint you with that brush, and I am genuinely sorry. However teeny much an apology from me means to you.
I have a large squadron of mental health doctors working on the answer to this question, but that’s separate from the topic of discussion.
Dr. Modelo Dark says these things take time, while Dr. Corona Mango says I’m just screwed altogether. My next check-up is probably Thursday. I’m down to 15 doctors currently. Dr. Heineken Green says I tongued too many random things while I was in China, so I fired him.
“If he prefers nuclear war to Option 3, well, we’re going to have a nuclear war sooner or later anyway.”
That is an absurd statement. Putin is in the process of degrading Russia more than anything we could ever do with direct military confrontation. You never back someone into a corner unless you are ready to deal with anything and everything they could possibly throw at you. Putin is clearly not all there, so our approach has to take that into account. We might “win” a nuclear war (they being 98% incinerated and we only 75% incinerated), but to risk/provoke it would be insane – we are already winning this confrontation without any direct military engagement.
Putins statements about economic sanctions are not a declaration of war, but a desperate attempt of bullying, because he recognize the effects of those sanctions. The threat that he will not allow Ukraine to be a state after this (unless they surrender) is completely absurd. It took him 5 years and huge amounts of resources to subdue Chechnya with 1.5 million people – does he really think anybody would take the threat of him doing the same to a country with 44 million people serious?
The good news is that we have competent professionals in charge of the White House responses to Russias attack on Ukraine. They know that all we have to do is arm Ukraine’s government – and later their rebel/resistance forces. The longer the conflict last, the worse for Putin and Russia. It will also serve as a demonstration to China that trying to take over another country can be a very bad idea, even if you have the military power to do it.
So you’re saying, Ivan, don’t worry, Ukraine will not fall?
This is not the consensus view. It is not the White House view. But perhaps your judgment should be decisive.
I am a No Fly Zone, guy. That’s my view. It is Zelensky’s view, and he’s on the ground. But it’s not your view, because you know better.
If Putin is threatening nuclear war over that, well, I am willing to call his bluff. You want to be endlessly intimidated by a power with 4% of the GDP of NATO. If we succumb to nuclear intimidation, then why even bother showing up on the field? Isn’t the rational choice to simply hand Taiwan to China, as they, too, will threaten us with nuclear weapons? And what of North Korea? Should we cower there, too?
After for the ‘professionals’ in the White House, the people who brought us the Afghanistan disaster and who entirely failed to deter Russia even though our military and economic strength and population is vastly larger, these are the ‘professionals’? The White House team is pathetic. They can’t deter street crime, can’t close the border, and the certainly didn’t deter Putin.
And I thought Bruce Hall was serving PutinTrump garbage. You are Beyond pathetic
No I am saying “don’t worry if/when Ukraine fall”. It has minimal strategic value and it is not “the first of many dominoes”. As a matter of fact letting Putin’s military get stuck in the swamplands of Ukraine and stuck in an occupation that will make Afghanistan and Chechnya look like Sunday school, would be a major strategic victory for US.
All of your “either this or that” choices are absurd and just show how little you know about the subject. It’s like the classic right wing drivel about “if we let government ban people from owning F16 fighter jets the next thing you know they will come for our bee-bee guns. Same ting with calling the huge success in Afghanistan (a mere 13 casualties during the last week of leaving!) – a “disaster”. Right wing drivel about the huge success in Afghanistan unfortunately has been seeping into real news organizations.
The idea that Biden somehow could have swung a magic stick and deterred Putin is more right wing BS and again fails to see the big picture.Trump didn’t prevent Russia from taking Syria and Biden didn’t prevent the attack on Ukraine. However, when this is all set and done, Biden will have succeeded in multiple major strategic goals that the Orange disaster not only couldn’t move forward, but actually moved backward.
You are the only one intimidated by Putin – the rest of us can see how he has fallen into his own trap.
Make a coherent and factually correct version of that comment, and I will respond.
Zelensky called for planes if not a no fly zone, which he realizes will not happen. But looks like there might be s plsne deal. This would involve gving Ukrainians Polish and maybe Romanian old Soviet planes their pilots know how to fly, with US replacing those with newer and better ones. This looks like it will probably fly, so to speak.
Blinken has confirmed this deal is on
Time is passing, views are changing, Barkley.
Steven,
I would still prefer a no fly zone, but some old Soviet planes the Ukrainians know how to fly are better than nothing, although they are not getting nothing with all those javelins and stingers usfullyi going in Amazing that the Russians have not managed to achieve air supremacy so far, with why not a matter of considerable debate.
The notion is to boil the Russian frog slowly.
Adolescence drivel.
This is why dilettantes shouldn’t do policy.
And yet here the war is.
So your view is what? Forget the no fly zone? Be thoroughly intimidated by nuclear threats? And punish Russia forever?
That’s your suggestion? So what do you have to offer?
Nothing. Absolutely nothing.
He has been clear but you are too self absorbed to notice
If you are winning – just keep doing what you are doing. We don’t need to escalate.
Putin just talked about how he could not retreat to his phony Donbas states and just defend them, because there would be a never ending fight with the Ukrainian’s. That means someone in his circle gave that specific advice to him, and now he is desperately fishing for a compromise where Ukraine and the west recognize those phony states in return from him pulling out of the rest of Ukraine.
Putin already knows how weak a position he is in militarily. His tactic of encircling the cities, rather than taking them, show that he understands how weak he would be in any fighting inside cities. However, unless he has complete control over the countryside, his encircling troops would be vulnerable to hit and run attack from two sides.
We don’t need Ukraine to decisively win in the battlefield next week. Every week this goes on, Putin, Russia and their military will be weakened.
What I would “offer” is keep doing what we have done so far. A no fly zone just play directly into the Kremlin hard liners escalation campaign – let’s not be stupid and take the bait. Keep giving Ukraine more Stinger missiles instead. Also keep sending them more Javelins and sniper riffles and drones. In contrast to the Orange disaster, Biden has opened up military aid and supplies while those supply lines are still easy to use. The longer this fight goes on the more Russian military hardware will get destroyed – and they will not be able to rebuild that for a long time. The more damage Russia do in a desperate attempt to win this militarily, the bigger their loses politically. Putin will unite Europe and make Russia a pariah state, locked out of European prosperity for many generations. Putin will demonstrate that his military couldn’t even take Ukraine, so the rest of Europe will lose some of its fear of him and Russia. Yet the damage to Ukraine will serve as a warning to keep a certain level of military preparedness.
I think, Ivan, you are expounding the emerging NATO Strategy: Refrain from direct intervention but given the Ukrainians enough weapons and other support to prevent the collapse of the country. This is something akin to the US strategy in the Iran-Iraq War. Such an approach is both cynical and immoral, but yes, I think that’s where the political logic takes us.
I can give you several reason why this is bad, and I will publish on the topic, but I think you have nailed the emerging NATO strategy.
There is nothing immoral about this strategy. NATO is not forcing this upon Ukraine. Ukraine and their democratically elected government can give up “the game” any time they want. NATO is simply supporting the fight that Ukraine has elected to fight against the Russian invaders by providing defensive weapons. By the way that was exactly what Ukraines military asked for 2 weeks ago – they specifically said give us your weapons we don’t need your troops.
Biden is doing this without any bumbling blunders that would risk a “brink of nuclear war” situation, because that is a risk is only taken when facing an existential threat. Furthermore, the outcome of that scenario would be more costly for Ukraine. Putin would almost certainly use his battlefield nukes in Ukraine with a “what are you going to do about that”. He would not threaten with a barrage of ICBM’s against US and then back down – you right wingers are living in a fantasy world more bizarre than Putins
It is no surprise that Ukraine’s President want us to take further steps to help them regardless of the risk to US and NATO – it takes true leadership and statesmanship to answer him with a “no we cannot do that, but we will do this”.
And what do you have, Duckie? Absolutely nothing.
What have you done besides write your usual stupid garage.. you are an incredibly self absorbed moron
Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot is not “nothing” – it may not be much but it is something!
Have you ever seen Steve’s feet. Shooting himself is a life style
Kopits, its ok, your political groups have been financed by Russia since 2008 and since 2013 with a large intensification. Of course that means nothing. The “Nu-Left” was financed by Russia in the mid-late 20th century as well. Made them seem bigger than they were, but things fell back after 1990. With the money spigot turning off, organizations will fail, people will disappear and the state of nature will change. Nothing is ever for sure.
Who are ‘my political groups’? I publish recently at The American Thinker, but I gave a long quote on oil prices to the Wall Street Journal yesterday. Which of those is ‘my groups’?
American Thinker is a right wing rag. That is why they published your utterly stupid rant
I assume that Kopits’ quote was for the editorial section. That’s the section of WSJ most likely to have sewage runoff the rest of the paper wouldn’t have.
It was about the ability of the US oil supply to offset Russian supply losses. We can add maybe 1.2 mbpd this year, versus the loss of 8 mbpd of Russian crude and product exports. It’s not close. A loss of even 4 mbpd would mean a stiff recession. And that’s coming. So how long do you guys see keeping Russia offline?
Well, admittedly I am still learning about the oil market as it relates to Europe etc. but it strikes me you’ve left out a decent possibility of 900.000 bpd extra from Iran and OPEC. I would presume those could be up pretty quick if agreements are made. I think that’s why Putin met with the Saudis recently and making butt-hurt noises that the Saudis “shouldn’t politicize oil”. But the Saudis operate very similar to the Chinese government~~every issue is self-serving, and working with Putin doesn’t offer too much at this point does it??~~Not on oil exports anyway.
Now I know how this will go, Kopits will laugh at the 900,000bpd addition as a small drop in the lost Russian supply and that’s fine. But the main point being here, people get resourceful when they choose to be. I’m guessing the current times would call for that extra resourcefulness beyond that 900,000bpd extra from OPEC and Iran.
I can’t read this until the very early morning hours tomorrow. I assume this is the article they were apparently seeking your counsel on~~Are you sure you “made the final cut”??
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-does-the-u-s-still-buy-russian-oil-11646151935
BTW, does anyone know how I can get a date with that model in the “Intermix” advert in the upper right?? What??~~you say it’s hopeless for me?? You bunch uhdamned killjoys.
Steven,
I have not gone on about it, but some time ago I came out for the no fly zone, although I fear it may not stop the Russian ground forces, and the Russian air force has been amazingly abysmal. Pgl asked what about anti-aircraft attack on our planes? My view is take them out if they are in Ukraine; they do not belong there, but leave them alone if they are in Russia, which might limit US air activity near the border, which might not help struggling Kharkiv that much.
I do not think NATO needs to be involved. I have argued that the US and UK actually have a moral and legal duty to protect the “territorial integrity” and “political independence” of Ukraine based on the 1994 Budapest Memorandum people keep forgetting, signed when Ukraine gave up the world’s third largest nuclear force. The US and UK can do it themselves, although having use of some forward NATo bases would help.
I would hope nuclear war can be avoided, and I think your choice of that or your money deal is not what we face. On the nuclear front I think what is most likely is not a full scale war, but Putin could easily be tempted to use tactical nukes if things do not go better for him in Ukraine, with or without any intervention by outsiders. He might be more likely to do so if US and UK imposed a no fly zone, but that is not all that obvious to me, although I think fear of this is what is currently holding back NATO and US decisionmakers, against the ongoing pleas from Ukrainian leaders. I would hope that deciding to use nukes of any sort might be what would trigger a cou0 by those around Putin and remove him from office.
I have not taken your proposal about Russia paying for Crimea and the Donbas republics. Technically Russia does not own the latter, in its own eyes, so would not pay. Maybe Crimea, but he thinks it is Russia’s by rights. Heck, Steve, if Putin were to go for your proposal, I would be fine with it, but I bet he will not be at all interested, just not a player, I fear. No fly zone a more serious one..
The Kremlin hard liners want to escalate to the brink of all out nuclear war. That is the only way they can be sure to win something. Because when you get to that “launching all the ICBMs in 10 min” point – the red phones start ringing. Then everything militarily freezes and negotiations begin. Anybody who think that it would be allowed to go one minute further, or that Russia would just fold at that point is a fool.
At this time Russia would be stronger in those negotiations than they will be a week from now. So far Biden has been brilliant in denying Russia the “10 min point”. He has not, should not and will not take the bait. Anything we do to induce direct military fights between NATO forces and Russia only helps Putin. We must stay with a proxy war, anything else would be a huge tactical mistake.
The fact that Putin is trying to push us to the brink show how desperate he is, so we have to be careful and make sure to give him an off ramp at some point.
Biden’s an idiot, but so far things are working out well enough.
Ivan, I think you are now beginning to express the feelings of many, if not most Americans and Europeans: Ukraine must not be allowed to fall. We can live with the Ukrainians not winning, but not with Ukraine falling. That’s the sentiment. I don’t know that Biden sees it that way, but I think many, many people feel that way. I certainly do.
I think that’s becoming the de facto NATO strategy. This is not great for either the Russians or Ukrainians. It means the Russians will be chewed up incrementally, or as I wrote in the article linked below, NATO can bankrupt Russia out of its petty cash box. But this will not become fully apparent for a while. In the meantime, Ukraine will be a slaughterhouse for Russians and Ukrainians alike. For me, that is grossly suboptimal policy.
I think you are correct. Putin is desperate. It’s hard to see how this whole thing could have been more screwed up.
Finally, Ivan, I am glad that you are now thinking about an off ramp. As we start talking about a No Fly Zone, we want to be floating an off ramp at the same time. Russia has to have some kind of honorable exit if we are to reduce the attractiveness of the nuclear option (indeed, as a matter of appropriate policy).
For me, some of the critical aspects of an off ramp include, in return for Russia’s military returning to its garrisons and lines as of February 1:
1) the resolution of territorial disputes between Ukraine and Russia, thereby enabling
2) a lifting of the current sanctions,
3) a lifting of prior sanctions,
4) a structure that binds Russia to the European order and
5) preserves the independence and integrity of Ukraine while
6) respecting critical Russian objectives (Sebastopol) and
7) not humiliating, punishing, or marginalizing Russia.
In order to achieve this outcome, certain territorial adjustments will have to be made and a very, very large (but ultimately affordable) sum of money will have to change hands. I don’t see an alternative to that.
In any event, I am glad we’ve begun to discuss the nature of an off ramp as we look to the post-war world (assuming we prevail).
Steven,
I have seen somewhere on the internet a claim that Russia is now offering a ceasefire if Ukraine recognized its annexation of Crimea, the independence of the Donbas republics (unresolved what their borders should be), and promises in writing not to seek to join NATO (and maybe also the EU). But no offer of payment was made, and I think your proposal on that part of this is and will be a non-starter, even if it is not in itself an inherently bad idea. Not gonna happen or even be discussed.
Putin wants NATO to be seen by Russians as the aggressor.. Morons like Princeton Steve would have us fall into Putins trap. Pay no attention to Steve and his stupid writing as this troll is nothing more than an attention hog
Let me take this piece by piece, Barkley. First, let me say how nice it is to have a civilized debate. Like it used to be.
“I have not gone on about it, but some time ago I came out for the no fly zone, although I fear it may not stop the Russian ground forces, and the Russian air force has been amazingly abysmal. ”
I think we may have to fight Russian aircraft over the skies of Ukraine. But given how badly Russian airpower is performing, if we don’t hold up against them, I’d rather know that before we take on the Chinese. And I agree. We absolutely want to stay off of Russian territory. In Ukraine, in my view, pretty much anything goes. Not in Russia.
I am agnostic about US / UK versus NATO. I have no problem with US and UK alone, or US alone. I simply don’t know enough about the underlying military fundamentals. Either a NATO or US No Fly Zone works for me.
I don’t think we can submit to nuclear extortion. We just can’t. MAD exists for a reason. I think plg is prepared to call Putin’s bluff. I am. But we do need a new nuclear doctrine for a conservative age. Coming up later this week, I hope.
Personally, I think a No Fly Zone ends the war in short order. Remember, not only does NATO not want to fight Russia, the Russian military does not want to fight NATO, either. The GDP ratio is 25 to 1. Would you want to get in a ring with a muscular guy weighing 5,000 lbs? I certainly wouldn’t, and neither do the Russians.
Certainly, Putin can start a nuclear war with a No Fly Zone. Nevertheless, for the global hegemon, the US, that risk cannot be avoided. See my piece on the Biden Doctrine for more. https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2022/03/the_biden_doctrine_abandons_americas_common_welfare.html
I would anticipate two outcomes of a No Fly Zone.
First, the Russians may come out to fight, and over a period of days to weeks, NATO will grind down Russian airpower. With air superiority, Russian forces on the ground are ‘sitting ducks’, as Fmr Def Sec Cohen stated. So that’s game over.
I think there is about an equal chance that the Russians do not challenge the Americans, which the Russians will do to 1) prevent the destruction of their air force, and 2) to protect their ground forces. If no one is shooting at the Americans, then the US Air Force is not going to go after Russia’s exposed ground forces. But the Russian army will be apoplectic. Imagine if Apache attack helicopters or A10’s were routinely patrolling over the 17 mile long convey north of Kyiv. If I were the Russians, I would be wetting myself, even if those aircraft are not actively attacking you.
Either of these scenarios sees the Russian initiative collapsing in short order. You can’t fight a ground war in a big, flat country like Ukraine without air cover.
Steven,
In reply to your specific reply I shall make some points I have made elsewhere in this now long and broad discussion.
One is that I am sure US air force alone would easily defeat Russiian one. But I think this may not guarantee a victory as I do not see the US or additional allies attacking Russian ground forces other than to defend themselves against attack. And most of the assault on Ukrainian cities seems to be coming from their ground forces, although there is apparently fire on Kharkiv coming across the border from Rjussia. I am amazed both Kharkiv and Mariupol are still holding out.
I also think that if Putin does use nukes it will not be steategic ones threatening global thermonuclear war. They will be tactical ones, where indeed Russia has a big advantage over NATO and the US in Europe. But the farce here is that in terms of practicality, aside from scaring lots of people, these may not deliver much militarily for the Russians. After all, the Ukrainian forces outside the cities seem to be using hit and run tactics. Their forces are not just sitting in obvious spots like the Russian ones are where a tactical nuke or two could just wipe them out. I note there are reports, possibly false, of Russians dropping thousand poud bombs on or neear Chernihev. Those are very large, if not as powerful as tactical nukes. But they seem to have had no noticeable effect on what is happening. Would using tactical nukes there have made any difference.
I do not that using them on cities would be really destructive, but I suspect Putin would hold back from that. We shall see. Ha may use them if Uktainians actually start to become so successful they begin actually pushing Russian forces back in various locaions, although more likely that would bring Putin to cave.
Before going too far with the “no fly zone” talk we first need to ask if it’s really a problem. Are the attacks on civilians mainly coming from air strikes, or (far more likely) non-line of sight indirect fire; i.e., artillery, missiles and mortars? I suspect the latter.
And you are absolutely right. At this time, a no fly zone will solve a “not a problem”, problem. Current problems are coming from missiles and artillery.
The presumption is that Russia will gain air superiority, and then become free to use aircrafts to target anything and everything. However, mobile air defense systems can still be sufficient deterrent to keep most of Russia’s aircraft in Russia (or literally put them on the ground). The current idea of giving Ukraine old Russian aircrafts they know how to fly, will work for a shot time. However, we may also need to prepare for Russian air superiority by giving Ukraine better mobile air defense systems. We may have to consider giving them some very sophisticated systems. Putin will have strong incentives to move the whole war into the skies, if he gets one humiliating defeat after the other on the ground.
This is not the situation as Zelensky sees it. He’s the guy on the ground.
Steven Kopits Zelensky may be the guy on the ground (actually, underground), but that doesn’t mean he knows anything about military science. I was always a G4 guy and not a G3 guy, but even I know that you don’t waste scarce air power resources chasing down enemy air power in aerial dogfights. Zelensky will be lucky to get two dozen operational aircraft from Poland. He should use those against armored columns and artillery batteries. We should also be providing him with some of our older 155mm M198 towed howitzers and higher altitude surface-to-air missiles that we’ve mothballed. Those would be more effective at protecting civilians than any “no fly zone.”
Agree 2slugbait – the main use of Ukraine aircrafts and drones should be against the artillery pieces pounding cities. That is also a much better deployment of aircrafts that are not a match in the air against the newer model Russian aircrafts. Those Russian aircrafts are better taken down with the high altitude surface-to-air missiles that Ukraine now appears to have gotten (they shoot down 2 Russian fighter jets last night over Kiev). In todays warfare almost all dog-fights of fighter jet against fighter jet are idiotic and costly showcasing and chest thumping. It is much easier and cheeper to deny the enemy air superiority over your territory by using ground to air missiles, and drones loaded with air-to-air missiles.
I believe a No Fly Zone over all of Ukraine would end the war in short order. That would be an abject humiliation for the Russians, and frankly, it would scare the bejesus out of Russian ground forces. It means that all the US would have to do is flip the switch and Russian ground forces could be destroyed in short order. It would signal that Russia will not be allowed to prevail, and I think they would get that message.
@ Barkley Junior
Are you sure Kharkiv is struggling?? This “expert” on Russia who resides in Harrisonburg VA told me they would all be drinking Mai Tai cocktails in the middle of the invasion because they were “mostly ethnic Russians”, and that “life would go on” for them. I mean this guy in Harrisonburg is like….. a super genius ……. and stuff, AND an “expert” on Russia who “has never in his life been shown wrong” on anything Russian related. So like, I think between you and this guy in Harrisonburg I interacted with, you must be the one wrong and people in Kharkiv are drinking Mai Tais right this very moment. Do you care to comment why you dare to contradict the “expert” in Harrisonburg VA??
“According to a long story in today’s WaPo, people there are pretty calm, although according to you they should be running around freaking out. It may be that they are all a bunch of fools. But in fact I suspect another element of this is that because the city is dominated by ethnic Russians, they figure that life will go back to normal if they get conquered. But all accounts they do not support Putin or an invasion. But if it happens, they will move on.”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/predictions-oil-prices-and-recoveries-and-recessions#comment-268846
The “expert” on Russia’s (in Harrisonburg VA, PhD) comments related to Kharkiv were made on February 23, as you can see from the permalink—“But if it happens they will move on”
I like this comment about Kharkiv also, written by the “expert” on Russia residing in Harrisonburg VA. What does the gentle reader think, should I introduce the “expert” on Russia to Barkley Junior and have them “hash out” this “seeming” disagreement in Kharkiv??
“Um, you…..” [edited – MDC], <—that part is about Uncle Moses. One of the proudest moments I've had in the last year. “this statement by me looks correct. Kharkiv is now under attack, and the people there are not getting all worked up. I am watching it live on TV. Do not overdo stuff here. You still mostly have no idea what you are talking about, even if there is now a full invasion by Russia of Ukraine you thought would happen. But you only knew what you read in a few sources.”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/predictions-oil-prices-and-recoveries-and-recessions#comment-268894
Moses,
Oh my, here you go again, trying to score a point when there is not one there for you to score. And, of course, you think that all your emboldening letters helps you score your points. But it does not.
The comparison here is Kharkiv versus Lviv, the latter not under attack and hopefully not to become under attack, although it has had some aerial bombardments reportedly. The point about “moving on” involved what would happen after a conquest compared to other locations in Ukraine, especially Lviv, but also Kyiv and Odessa as well. Of all those Kharkiv has the highest percentage of Russian speakers and is the most pro-Russian. Note that I reported that they had become anti-Russian in Kharkiv and did not support an invasion. The statement involved something I hope we do not see,: what would happen after a total Russian victory. In such a situation I stick with what I said: Kharkiv would deal with it better than other places such as especially Lviv, but also Kyiv and Odessa. People there might well “move on” while those in other places would still be resisting.
I note in this regard that it does appear there are some places the Russians have taken control of that we do not hear any reports regarding of any resistance. One of those is the port of Berdyansk, which was right on the border of control between the DPR and Ukraine proper. Maybe there is resistance going on there, but it may well be that the local population there does not mind becoming part of the DPR, with its heavily Russian population. OTOH, just to its west we have Mariupol holding out from being conquered as is Kharkiv. We also hear of resistance by locals in some other places that have been conquered, such as Melitopol and Kherson. But we have not heard such reports out of Berdyansk. It is not easy to forecast which of these locations will resist and which will not.
As for the matter of my reporting what was happening in Kharkiv relative to what was happening in Kyiv when the invasion started, that was completely accurate. I was simply reporting what was being shown live on TV, and there was indeed very different behavior in Kyiv and Kharkiv, wirh nobody on the streets in Kyiv and people essentially behaving normally in Kharkiv. The latter would change, but that was what was happening, my report completely accurate. You have nothing on that one at all, Moses, no matter how much you embolden your words. All you do is emphasize how full of it you are, just struggling to score gotcha points. There are zero on that one.
You are just pathetically sick.
1. russia is not iraq in 1994. russian ‘air-land battle’ doctrine mirrored the nato version. russian sams are selling better than us/german equipment and their interceptors are modern and native air warning and controls from land and sea make flying over ukraine dicey. us has flown f-35 around russian lent radars in the iraq syria theater! so how many loses either side before someone goes after the best place to kill aircraft…. the bases? first, russia needs no excuse to take out obama’s aegis ashore radar sites in rumania and poland, this would step up quickly to mad!
2. nukes is mad!! ie mutual assured destruction. in the 80’s usa had pershings and ground cruise missile to do this, the inf treaty eliminated them all and since the treaty went away only russia has any thing like intermediate range stuff in theater.
3. russia will keep the black sea ports and oblasts up to rumania. they will have civil rights for 14 million russians in the entire region, they will oust the american puppets, and the nazis. they will probably demand and verify all tactical nukes not owned by france in france leave europe.
that jpcoa discussion is in limbo in vienna…… russia is #1 signer, as iran needs a security council approval bc no one trusts the usa since clinton! to get any jpcoa; russia insists sanctions end!
btw an interesting side note: pope francis visited the russian embassy in rome and spent 90 minutes. i suspect he does not want russians to see “alexandr nevsky” again as they did in 1938. talking the teutonic order crusades against the balts and russian in 1230’s. the 900 year old latins versus orthodox wars!
patriach kirill is much closer to putin than any usa catholic prelate to biden.
seems the pope is less concerned for putin’s soul than biden’s
at this point looking at kopits’ #2, no one who is close, like iran, will give up nukes!!
Do we have a Russian troll here? Welcome on board!
So, Anon, you seem like a Russian fellow. Pick a name to join the discussion. Ivan is taken. I will call you Pavel, if you like.
1. Is Russian air power better than during Iraq? Doesn’t seem it just now. If you want to put NATO equipment against Russian kit, bring it on. We have a lot more money to spend on it. In any event, I welcome a test against Russian airpower. As I have said, if we do poorly against Russia, it will only be worse against China. I’d rather put it to the test now.
2. Like Russia, the US has about 3,700 nuclear weapons. You only need one of those put on Moscow for deterrence. The US has not threatened Russia; Russia has threatened NATO. The US and Soviet Union refrained from these sorts of threats from 1962 until the last few years under Putin. Putin is acting as if Russia could win a nuclear war. Do you think it could?
3. Russia may like to keep the coast of Ukraine. That will be settled in the field. NATO can afford to keep the pressure on those areas forever. Can Russia? Can Russia take these sanctions forever? And what happens if there’s a No Fly Zone? Russia’s situation on the ground will prove untenable.
4. The Iran deal. Right now, I don’t care. I think we settle the matter on the field in Ukraine. We can deal with Iran later. By the way, if Russia uses a nuke, I would not care to be in Tehran about 40 minutes later. Israelis might get twitchy.
5. I think nuclear non-proliferation is dead, I agree. I think everyone sees that Ukraine was absolutely crazy to give up its nukes and that the US is easily intimidated by nuclear extortion. You are correct. Absolutely. That’s the lesson, and Korea and Japan will take it to heart, I think. But if I were Poland or Romania or Estonia, wouldn’t I want a nuke now? Is that in Russia’s interest?
So, Pavel, read the article at the link (if you can, if you can’t I’ll publish here), and comment. Let’s hear the Russian view. https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2022/02/it_is_possible_for_putin_to_get_crimea_without_force.html
Now I see why “anonymous” has bothered to quote oil and gas prices at us. Anonymous is to Putin as ltr is to Xi. Pretending to be part of the conversation is like a spoon full of sugar to help the propaganda go down.
Anonymous has just unloaded the most pro-Russia spin yet posted to comments here.
Menzie, I kinda think your association with the White House has drawn the attention of adversaries to the United States. Not snark. Serious.
truth is not pro russia, it may be anti biden.
Anonymous,
Oh my, you seem to be watching RT again or something equivalent. You are so full of bizarre Russified mis or disinformation when you comment about thing aside from the US oil industry.
Iraq 1994? Why then? Nothing was going on there then.
It is true Russia has a lot more tactical nukes in Europe than US. But US does not have zero. Ratio is probably 10 to 1. But, funny thing, There is a limit to how useful those things are in the Ukraine war. They will not succeed in killking off decentralized Ukrainian military groups. Oh, one might use them against cities to really turn them into rubble, but then you want to rule those? They may be better for scaring outsiders, and the threat of them is probably what is keeping NATO from doing a no fly zone. But otherwise, frankly, they are overrated for their effectiveness, especially in this sort of a war.
Russia will keep Black Sea ports up to Romania? It does not have them up to there yet and may never get them. Still missing several, and Mariupol seems to be holding on despite days of total siege and massive bombardment.
Going to defend the “civil rights of Russians”? This is pure propaganda that their civil rights are being violated. Most Russian speakers in Ukraine have massively turned against Putin due to all his aggressive actions. Look at Kharkiv, an almost totally Russian speaking city. It continues to hold out like Mariupol against a siege with massive bombardment. They are not keen on having Putin come in and defend their “civil rights.
“americsan puppets”? You mean Zelensky? Are you out of your effing mind, A.? He was democratically elected, was crapped on by Trump, and has been lecturing the Americans, including calling for a no fly zone, without getting it.
Oh, and then the “nazis”? Right, Putin’s biggest and most hypocritical lie, going in to “de-Nazify” Ukraine, with its half-Jewish leader and no fascist elements in his government. Ah yes, there is the Azov battalion in Mariupol, and they are arguably such, but that is about it. Putin is invading to get rid of one battalion in one city that has long been put under control by the central government? Yeah, they were a loose cannon causing trouble in 2014, but not lately.
As for Putin himseld, he is under the influence of Aleksandr Dugin, himself a Nazie enthusiast ans anti-Semite whose Traditionalist Eurasianism draws on the work of the fascist philosopher Julius Evola, the man who personally convinced Mussolini in 1938 to fo with the hard racist line of Hitler. This is Putin’s inner guru. (Note: I have posted at length on this on Econospeak.). This is ultimate and total hypocrisy. Putin is the sxreaming fascist heee, not Zelensky.
So, Anonymous, do please get real and stop spouting third rate Russian propaganda.
I think you’re missing his professional affiliation, Barkley.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/ukraine-says-forces-foiled-assassination-065816097.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall
Putin sent an elite force on the mission of assassinating Zelensky. This particular plot failed but we know Putin wants to kill Zelensky. I know Lindsey Graham got heavily criticized for suggesting someone assassinating Putin as the world does not do that – right? But Putin is certainly not playing by the normal rules so why should he benefit from them?
Taking Putin out may not be feasible but the entire world including the Russian people would be better off if he were removed from power. Personally I want to take this monster alive so he has to stand trial in the Hague.
It’s like any planned vacancy of a job, you have to answer who is the replacement going to be, and will they be better?? Hillary was celebrating like a child on the playground when Qaddafi was assassinated. But did things in Libya get better?? I would argue not. Maybe if the right brain council gets together the leaders in Russia can figure out how they will do that. It would be a touchy game, but doable if the economy gets hit hard enough, there will be enough parties in the power structure to pull it off. That’s many months or even a few years off in the distance.
Fair point as Russia has no history of good leadership…Yelchin II would be bad idea
I think you mean Yeltsin, oh great geopolitical guru.
I did. My tablet must have a Russian spell check
This is the true tragedy. For the first time ever, Russia had thirty years of peace where a middle class could emerge. That may all be lost now for a half century.
You do not realize that Yeltsin was a very corrupt leader who impoverished most Russians ? No wonder you liked Trump
I actually felt Yeltsin was underrated as the leader of Russia. But I realize I am in the minority on this, and only the long arc of history might bring a minute few over to my way of thinking on Yeltsin (largely positive). I will say though, one of the few in the minority who together with me has high praise for Yeltsin on some issues……………. Bill Clinton.
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2018-10-02/clinton-yeltsin-relationship-their-own-words
https://www.newyorker.com/news/our-columnists/the-undoing-of-bill-clinton-and-boris-yeltsin-friendship-and-how-it-changed-both-countries
Yeltsin made many mistakes, and had well publicized personal issues (I feel redundant to go into). But if you consider the context, the era, and the generation Yeltsin was “a product of”, he was the BEST man for that job in that specific time frame. And I strongly believe that. I wish “the handoff” in leadership would have been to a different being than Putin.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/exxon-exits-244-billion-russia-deal-over-ukraine-attack/ar-AAUwkNj
Exxon joins Shell and BP cutting ties with Russia. Good for them.
She’ll is qoff my good company qlist as they just bqought 2 ship loads of Russian oil from Trafigura at $28.50 per barrel
buy chea is good business and india is buying everything they can……. at discount to brent!!!
and those projects these political companies are leaving are going at lose, cheap to china and the arabs!
all three should be sold short.
china and russia have been out investing these in iraq/iran projects!
consider the former colony non white world does not ‘respect’ around a replay of the balt crusades!
geopolitics is not a strong suit in the swamp!
Russia being forced to sell at less than $30 a barrel in a market above $100 per barrel is astounding to me. Both India and China should be willing to take it at a much lower discount. That has to be a special circumstance situation – I hope. We are not supposed to choke off Russian oil from the market (that would damage us too much), just ensure that Russia sells oil at a hefty discount (hurting Russia, but helping China, India and others who purchase it).
—– is about to find out that containment is not a viable strategy…
[ Racial malice is truly saddening and frightening. ]
There you go projecting again. Any suggestion that China, with its politics of Han cultural dominance, might need to be confronted, and you scream “racism”. You must know by now we’ve seen through this trick. Are your masters insisting on using it anyway?
Is someone attacking the Chinese “race” for being that “race”? Where? – oh please tell me where – seeing that is on my bucket list. AND don’t disappoint me again with another case of someone attacking the Chinese leadership for its incompetence and duplicity. Here in the wet that is just part of the normal process.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-26/Wang-Yi-China-provides-over-2-1-billion-COVID-19-vaccines-globally–17XXZU7b1Sg/index.html
February 26, 2022
Wang Yi: China provides over 2.1 billion COVID-19 vaccines globally
Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi announced on Friday that China has supplied more than 2.1 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines to more than 120 countries, stressing China honors its words and has delivered on its solemn commitments with concrete action.
China is the largest contributor to equitable vaccine distribution, Wang said when attending the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) High-level Meeting on COVID-19 Vaccines via video link. “One in two doses of vaccines administered globally is made in China.”
According to the Chinese foreign minister, China has so far carried out joint production with 20 countries, with an annual production capacity of one billion doses.
Wang put forward four proposals on Friday, saying China is ready to work with all other parties to strengthen cooperation on vaccines, build a “Great Wall of immunization”, make due contributions to defeat the COVID-19 pandemic as soon as possible, and jointly build a global community of health for all.
He called on parties to build a “safety net” of immunity, saying “as long as there is an immunity gap, the world cannot be completely safe.” …
Would be a lot better if the Chinese vaccines actually worked against the new variants.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/22/business/economy/china-vaccines-covid-outbreak.html
Most people in Hong Kong used the Chinese vaccine, and now they have the worlds third highest incidence of new cases and the worlds highest death rate. I wish China would be at least as adept at providing efficacy information as they are about using their vaccines for political propaganda.
Looks like a major release for multiple nation source when it comes to Oil. Major speculation crash if that happens. Hearing it could be 100 million barrel release.
100 million barrels is about 1 day of global demand. the only thing that will dent the price of oil is an announcement of supply increase from other major suppliers.
BTW. to those of you worried about the US “getting into a war with Russia,” well, Putin is already claiming that the economic sanctions are an “act of war.”
After we get you rehabilitated from Russian state TV we’re going to have to teach what the word rhetoric means.
Moses,
Wow, you have fallen flat on your face now multiple times with this scheiss, but you cannot let go. Do you listen to “state radio” NPR? Probably not. You are too stupid.
Anyway, guster, Echo of Moscow (Ekho Moskvy) was a radio station, not a TV station. My wife’s mother is quite unhapppy about its closure, but you think this is just fine because, wow, it was partially owned by the Russian government and was not fully independent. It was still way more independent than any media outlet now left operating..
Why do you keep coming on here acting like it is a good thing it was shut down? We know, you think you have scored a gotcha point with me. ?But you have not. This is on a level with your belief that you did so in the long running discussion of population genetics here that you kept briniging up an bringing up like you had scoted a gotcha point then nobody ever supported you and lots of people multiple times told you that you were utterly and totally wrong. I note, nobody has stepped forward here to support your line, and nobody will. They all know you are just disgustingly full of it with this garbage.
“Owned by gas giant Gazprom’s media arm, and helmed by veteran editor-in-chief Alexei Venediktov, the station maintained a delicate balance between remaining relatively free and uncensored, and keeping up its connections with the Kremlin.
Venediktov’s own ties to the political elite — including his role in promoting a controversial electronic voting scheme for the State Duma elections last year — saw him reviled by much of Russia’s anti-Kremlin opposition.”
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/03/03/russian-liberal-radio-mainstay-ekho-moskvy-closes-after-pulled-off-the-air-a76730
I’m certain Ekho Moskvy was not “independent” as you claim. And I am already well aware you cannot accept on any level the fact you are WRONG, about anything. You’ve proven that multiple times here, by acting like a 10 year old every time you get called out for lies. For some, It feels awkward to tell grandpa sitting in his lounge chair he’s wrong. Many people are afraid to tell their grandfather he and his lounge chair are starting to smell of certain bodily odors. But in your case, your true character is so distasteful I am glad to tell you.
Moses,
You may be “certain,” but you are just plain dead wrong. Go read the accounts of the closing of this network. Why has Putin closed it if it was not at all independent, Moses, why? You have no explanation. You have not even admitted that the ownership of Ekho Moskvy was only 68% by the government. You have been wrong on this, and your pointing out that on some matters it followed government line does not and did not undo anything I said. Again, now becoming the umpteenth time, I noted that it was only semi-independent and that what was interesting and important was watching how far it was from the government line, with that decreasing recently.
Nothing you have posted on this undoes that at all. Instead you have now repeatedly posted things that range between misleading to just plain wrong, all with your usual shouting emboldened words.
Do you notice that not a single person here is supporting you in this nonsense, not a single person? You are just making the case for somebody to show up at your place and pad those walls you are shouting so loudly and repeatedly at.
Sure and my middle age overweight brother is claiming to be the sexiest man alive.
Putin wish the west would be at war with him. It is sooo humiliating that an invasion supposed to take 1-4 days to be finished (to take over the whole country), is now at day 10 and they have not even taken a quarter of the country. Such a nice excuse for this spectacular failure, if he can claim to be warring against US and NATO.
Putin can declare war against NATO at his discretion.
Exactly my point – it doesn’t become war just because someone claims it is. Just like abortion is not “murder” just because someone claims it is.
Very few Urals oil contracts closed recently. This makes it hard to know what the heck the price is.
Shell Trading just bought a cargo at Brent-$28.50. Prompt is at 118. I don’t know what spot is (higher, though) or even if the reference is spot or prompt. All that said, you’re looking at something like $90 for Urals (still similar to a month ago…but a massive deficit…quality wise, something like 0-2 dollars deficit is normal.
Also, not clear who’s paying for freight, insurance, etc. Makes a huge difference on prices, if that is at loading or at delivery. Also, hard to say if this is a few days glitch or the sign of more problems for Russia going forward. I have heard they are working on some massive sales, but there are delivery issues (payment on delivery, not loading). And they are having a hard time booking ships.
So, really not clear how it shakes out and a lot of non-public info. Just sharing what I’ve read. I’m not currently buying for a refinery, don’t have the systems to see things (and with these cargoes, it’s a lot of party to party stuff regardless).
Would be nice if we had more US supply. But JenniG can’t turn that on, on a dime. The time to encourage the industry (versus the opposite) was over a year ago. Also, of course the industry isn’t going to take short term comments as some change of heart.
For those of you who see high price as a feature, not a bug, to drive switching, you got more now. Go Tesla!
Dude, the problem ain’t supply. It’s elitist financial globals. They mark up prices doofus. It’s a con game. US extraction has risen since crashing in the spring of 2020.
Rystad has a 08MAR webinar on impact of the war on oil/gas markets. It’s free, but you have to register (and get spammed, but you can drop out again if not interested).
https://www.rystadenergy.com/newsevents/events/rystad-energy-webinars/webinar/4885-rystad-energy-webinar-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine-what-s-at-stake-for-global-energy-markets-
I usually find Rystad pretty good. Watch a lot of their free content. They were well ahead of the curve in predicting the 2017-2018 shale growth. Don’t have any justification for the paid stuff, right now. Abramov (a Russian!) is really good analyst on shale, but not part of this webinar. Some of their junior analysts are a little hit and miss. But Rystad himself is pretty thoughtful.
In the 2 cities Putins pigs claim to control large protests have broken out not deterred by the occupiers
I care about the safety of ALL Ukrainians, but I’d be lying if I said the city of Odessa didn’t have a particular interest to me. There’s a high concentration of Jews in that city. It is said that the Jews in Odessa~~largely because of Jews’ experiences of persecution in the past~~have been preparing for war better than the average Ukrainian, at least in the pre-war weeks. I am hopeful they will dig in hard and give the Russian invaders everything and a little more than they expected. May God bless and keep safe the Jews in Odessa and all Ukrainians. Say a prayer for the Jews of Odessa in the weeks and months ahead. One thinks of David and Goliath. Be careful Goliath Russia, what you go looking around for. Something tells me they got a few slingshots waiting for you.
Moses,
Most of the Jews left Odessa a long time ago, although you are right it probably still has a higher Jewish population than almost any place in Ukraine. Long a tradition of humor there.
It has a beautiful opera house built in 1887 they are proud of that managed not to get bombed during WW II barely. A relative of my wife helped pay fot its initial construction. There are sandbags all around it now.
Wow, really?? The Jewish population of Odessa has been going down since the start of World War II?? Are you absolutely certain?? Have you been doing “deep dives” into the JMU college library microfiche film again Barkley?? Your breadth of knowledge has once again astounded us all Barkley. How do you keep up with all these minutia from history?? It’s very impressive you know that and I don’t think I need to tell you. we all are in awe of you. Did the Jewish population in many other large cities of Europe also go down after World War II Barkley?? Keep us posted.
Moses,
As it is, while you may think you are making a witty wisecrack with your references to me going into the JMU library, you should maybe realize by now that the author of the most widely used textbook in comparative economics whose coauthor and wife is from Moscow with relatives who lived in Odessa might actually know all this without such efforts, and I do. You just again make yourself look totally silly somehow suggesting I do not know what I am talking about on all this. I have made some inaccurate forecasts here, notably one that Ukrainian president Zelensky also made about whether or not Putin would engage in a full scale invasion of Ukraine. But you have yet to find or point out a single factual statement about the past or current situation here that I have mad that is incorrect, and that is because I do happen to know a heck of a lot about all this.
As for the Jewish population of Odessa, lots of Jews left there prior to WW II. I happen to know lots of American Jews with ancestors who were in Odessa, but left there long before WW II hit. And furthermore, a lot of have left since, and have been steadily continuing to do so right up to the present time, many going to Israel, but many to the US also. This was not all about the Nazi invasion and WW II as you clearly and mistakenly think. You really like to make a fool of yourself in these discussions, although I also sympathize with your sympathy for the remaining Jews of Odessa, as well as the rest of the population there.
As it is, there are disagreements about the size of the Jewish population in both Odessa and Ukraine more generally. It had the second largest Jewish population of any city in the world after Warsaw in 1892 at around 126,000. This was about 200,000 in 1939, about a third of the city’s population. This was back down to around 120,000 in 1970. One source says this had fallen to only about 12,000 by 2001, while another says the current Jewish population there is at 45,000 out of about a million total in Odessa. Pick your favorite numbers, Moses.
You have shown here before your “mastery” of international affairs and your fantasy self-designated status as an “expert” on the Russian government, for example about 3 weeks ago when you claimed Putin would not invade the country of Ukraine. Let’s go to the videotape replay, shall we??
Barkley Rosser said: “Do keep in mind I am the one here with access to Russian media. That has now been blaring for several days that the troops will go home after the exercises are done, and exercises are exactly what they are doing now. This has more recently been reinforced by statements from Putin in press conferences, such as the one just held after the visit of German Chancellor Scholze.”
Russian “expert” Barkley Rosser continues: “There is not going to be an invasion, even if some of the details of what Zelensky and Ukraine may agree to are not fully settled, and Victoria Nuland has been shooting her mouth off too much, somebody I wish was not part of this administration.”
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/risk-and-uncertainty-before-the-open#comment-268219
Barkley Rosser also stated Putin was “very convincing” about Russian troops “just doing exercises” in Belarus near the northern border of Ukraine.
For readers now dying of laughter in their chairs, I should tell you Barkster Junior often says things with intense conviction which if you haven’t read his writing before will come across as satire to anyone not aware of how amazingly daft Barkley Rosser is.
Moses,
Oh, so you have just fallen on your face on this Odessa matter, so now you drag out my report on what Putin was saying on Russian media at a certain point. I accurately reported what was being said. You did not know what was being said and nobody else here did. But as we now know, Putin was lying when he was saying those things. Everybody here is now well aware of that, and you repeating this report in yet again emboldened letters is just boring and just an effort to distract from your having fallen on your face with this Odessa stuff.
Hey, I made a simple point to accurately clarify the facts about Odessa, and you somehow decided to try and stupidly pick a fight about it. So you try to distract by repeating a report I made of things being said on Russian media, but those things were being said. I was completely right about that. You got nothing.
Do February Inflation this week.
I’ve been ‘home alone’ for two weeks and [masochism] today am cooking Sunday dinner for my son, two grandchildren and sister. I paid $5.59 for a lb. of asparagus [yuk]; $5 for five lbs. generic potatoes; and $2.59 [was last $1.79 and that was up from $1.49] for a dozen regular eggs.
Thank God! Costco hasn’t increased the price [$19.89] of a case of Yuengling Lager.
Alert! Get to the liquor store before those prices soar and they sell out.
@ T. Shaw
$3.59 per gallon for gasoline where I am today. Last time I went out it was $2.91. I’m left wondering if your hero in life, the orange abomination, hadn’t tried to extort Zelensky for fantasy crimes by Joe Biden, maybe we wouldn’t be in the situation of skyrocketing gasoline prices and etc. But we’ll never know the answer to that question, because functionally illiterate people like you voted for an orange colored, ugly, facially contorted narcissist with an out of control id. And so, here we are. I feel empathy for Americans like me who voted for Biden, Bernie, Elizabeth Warren etc. People like you got us where we are, and if you’re staying at home because your SUV gets 14 mpg, I really don’t give a sh*t. I just wish there was a way we could “compartmentalize” you and people like you to the world created by trump, and “compartmentalize” people like me in a world where Republican voters could do better than watch FOX news and regurgitate FOX “news” lies to each other at the local greasy spoon diner.
moses ad hominem is not argument.
Some are calling for a one-quarter drop in Russian GDP of 20%.
Qone quarter is 25 percent not 20 percent. Do pay attention in your preK classes
One quarter of the year. I guess that would be Q2.
Boris Johnson reflects my views:
Setting out his plan last night, [Johnson] said: “Putin must fail and be seen to fail in this act of aggression. It’s not enough to express our support for rules-based international order — we must defend it against a sustained attempt to rewrite the rules by military force.”
Exactly. Ukraine must not fall.
https://www.the-sun.com/news/4831147/boris-johnson-vladimir-putin-plan-russia-ukraine/
Nice words but maybe you do not get that the UK is not following any of your extreme proposals. Maybe that is a good idea as you are more insane than Putin
international (& maritime) law depends on aircraft, tanks, artillery and maneuver units,
backed up by nuclear forces.
boris/brit (rest of eu/nato) need biden and us nukes to do what boris says.
most of you (none of you seem to care or to know what an h bomb can do) are not old enough to remember the tv movie/series.
“the day after….”
it did not do justice to the wreckage a nuclear exchange would reap!
go ahead push a war with that evil (your delusions) putin!
Anonymous,
The only person talking about using nuclear weapons is your guy Vladimir Putin. Indeed no world leader dared suggest such a thing since 1962. A moral norm emerged of no first use that all nuclear powers adhered to. And then in 2014 when Putin illegally annexed Crimea and most of the world objected and imposed some fairly weak sanctions, several people in Russia began babbling about how they had nuclear weapons and could incinerate New York. This was utterly and totally immoral and irresponsible.
And now we have Putin seriously threatening the use of nuclear weapons after his even more illegal and immoral invasion of Ukraine has stalled out and he faces a justified imposition of stronger economic sanctions. Do you actually pay any attention to what you are posting here before you do so? Do you understand how totally immoral and nauseating what you are posting is?
Trumps grand idea is to dress F22s as zchinese planes and use them in Ukraine so Putin invades China. I know..dumb as a rock. But this idea was the joint work of Bruce Hall and Princeton Steve
We will have to paint them red all over – so nobody would think they flew in from the west.
Not the most important issue right now, but it looks like Russia is about to default on some foreign currency debt:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-05/putin-seeks-to-avert-defaults-with-ruble-payments-to-creditors?sref=3zYETA5s
Default was pretty much inevitable. The article merely reports on the how to default will be handled.
Just tonight, March 6th, Japan and South Korea have issued travel bans and travel alerts for Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine. Damn these folks are quick studies aren’t they?? Also, this bulletin just in tonight, using Japan’s high speed rail makes for faster inter-city travel than horseback. You people have your notepads handy to get this down, right?? I’m just trying to be helpful here.
Why is that – Dem admins (responsible governance) build the U.S economy back after each Repub disaster (policy prescription for everything – tax cuts for rich donors) – is just the way it is – according to the media? Meanwhile – the media runs to fleece jacket wearing GOP talking point dingbats for economic advice on what ills the U.S. economy. Their current one is that AOC and the Dems are responsible for war in Ukraine because the U.S. should be energy independent – while the GOP votes against any renewable energy for the past 30 years. https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1500219506337226755 If any of your commentators think I am unfairly pointing out an extreme GOP position – take note that 25 GOP governors are saying the same thing https://ijr.com/25-governors-biden-reverse-energy-policies-boost-domestic-production/
(BTW – i infrequently see Katie Porter or Elizabeth Warren quoted in economic reporting – their legislative proposals too responsible for discussion perhaps? https://twitter.com/RepKatiePorter/status/1313604371163168768 )
Meanwhile our socialist U.S. ag commodity producers (after taking in $40 billion in farm bailout $ the past two years) are back to being free market capitalists with $9 bu wheat – while complaining about inflationary input costs (fuel/fertilizer). And the RW nationalists are slowly driving around Washington DC to complain that now non-existent mask mandates are taking away their freedom. I guess they still have the freedom to waste gas.
The GOP has been the party of know-nothings/division and is now the party of “grievances” – real and imagined.
Thanks for the straightforward economic data posts – Menzie – much appreciated.
Some details on current use of Russian crude/products in the US.
https://rbnenergy.com/were-not-gonna-take-it-what-do-us-refineries-import-from-russia-and-what-if-they-stop
(Not making a point, just sharing the detail.)
Any suggestion that China, with its politics of — cultural dominance, might need to be confronted…
[ Racial malice is truly saddening and frightening. ]
Yes, China’s racial malice toward Tibet is truly abhorent.
Too funny.
And don’t forget mainland Han Chinese’ love of Xinjiang people. Their cup runneth over for love of the people they warn foreigners in China “Watch your wallet/phone!!!” when you see a Xinjiang person on a public metro bus. Like the U.S.A. white southerner who tells you how “dirty” Blacks are but has no qualms having Blacks prepare their meals and be caretakers of their children. They know Xinjiang people are no more apt to rob than a Han person on the public bus. But just like mainland China Han peoples’ “field trips” to North Korea, there is nothing that makes mainland China Han people more proud of themselves than finding ANYONE they can posture to look down their noses at. What a “thrill” for them.
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-03-04/China-stands-together-with-people-with-disabilities-for-shared-future-18864tzAYQ8/index.html
March 4, 2022
China stands together with its people with disabilities for a shared future
The Beijing 2022 Winter Paralympic Games opening ceremony organized under the theme of “Blossoming of Life” kicked off in the Chinese capital on Friday night, with about 30 percent of performers being people with disabilities.
Chinese President Xi Jinping officially declared opening of the Paralympics at the iconic Bird’s Nest stadium.
In the following nine days, 96 of China’s top Paralympic athletes will compete in the snow and ice sports, which is expected to inspire an estimated 85 million people with disabilities in the country to reach beyond their limits.
“People with disabilities are just as capable of leading rewarding lives as able-bodied people,” said Xi during a visit to Tangshan City of Hebei Province in July 2016.
With a particular concern for this special group of people, the Chinese president has, on more than 20 public occasions, provided guidance on the country’s cause for people with disabilities.
‘Leaving no individual with disabilities behind’
President Xi said that persons with disabilities are equal members of society and an important force for the development of human civilization and for upholding and developing Chinese socialism.
No individual with disabilities should be left behind in China’s drive to build itself into a moderately prosperous society in all respects by the end of 2020, he pledged during his visit to a paraplegic rehabilitation center in Tangshan, a city hit by a catastrophic earthquake in 1976.
China has incorporated programs for people with disabilities into its overall plans for economic and social development and its human rights action plans, prioritizing them in poverty relief efforts and ensuring their rights to education and employment, among others.
For example, the enrollment rate of children with disabilities in compulsory education has reached over 95 percent, said the Ministry of Education in 2021. The number of students receiving special education doubled from 440,000 in 2015 to 880,000 in 2020.
Xi has also committed that China will develop more programs for people with disabilities, promote their all-round development and shared prosperity, and strive to ensure access to rehabilitation services for everyone….
i did notice china was not standing together with the people of ukraine. perhaps after they all become disabled from the russian massacre, the chinese will then stand together with them?
Oh, but aren’t you going to give a “fair and impartial” listening to China’s Foreign Ministry folks?? America is shamefully “fanning the flames of war!!!!!”. Feeling guilty yet?? These are the people “ltr” gets his propaganda “sensibilities” from. You see the wolverine eating the poodle and decapitating the poodle’s head from its body, blood flying everywhere, and then you say “Why did the poodle entice the wolverine to eat it!?!?!?!?!?! Strange Laowai behavior………”
Moses,
Sigh…
There you go again with your weird fantasy that ltr is male. It has only been pointed out here about umpteen times that aside from doing somewhat more reposting of stuff from official Chinese sources ltr’s posts completely resemble in style and tone and position and even some things like really liking Krugman and reposting his columns what the person known as “anne” did on Economists View. It is clear that ltr and “anne” are one and the same, although it is possible that “anne” adopted a female name so as to fool everybody and get sympathy or something.
I would note as further evidence that ltr might be female, although she has never specifically commented on this, the fairly recent exchange in which ltr went on at some length about discrimination against women in economics, a genuine problem. I stayed out of that particular exchange, but I note that several people here got upset with her for supposedly overdoing her arguments, a matter I am not commenting on. I do not remember if you participated in that thread. Of course there are men who take strongly feminist positions, so that proves nothing.
But, again, several other people here agree that ltr and the “anne” of Economists View are almost certainly one and the same person. Again, maybe “anne” adopted that name for some nefarious reason, but I am unaware of anybody else here who agrees with your view that ltr is male. Certainly nobody has stepped forward to do so. But then, we know you have a major problem regarding the female gender, probably more than one problem, with this bizarre campaign of yours yet another sign of it.
Food shortages in the city of Kherson starting to draw attention.
From America’s newspaper of record. Biden’s handlers are selling Alaska back to Russia and giving Texas back to Mexico so that America can buy oil from the two. “The Babylon Bee.”
https://english.news.cn/20220213/1aaf1c3694f54731bf970c2c41cfda3f/c.html
February 13, 2022
More fruits and vegetables on Tibetans’ tables
LHASA — Sunday is a weekly shopping day for Tashi’s family. As for groceries, they have much more choices than before.
“When I was a child, dumplings and canned food were my dreamy feast,” said 70-year-old Tashi while shopping in Porgor Street of Lhasa, capital of southwest China’s Tibet Autonomous Region.
Those days are gone.
Holding his grandson’s hand and selecting edible oils in front of a supermarket shelf, Tashi said: “I have so many choices just to buy cooking oil, including olive oil, walnut oil, rapeseed oil, and so on.”
In 1959, Tibet’s total grain output was only about 180,000 tonnes, while the region’s grain output in 2021 reached a new high of 1.07 million tonnes, topping 1 million tonnes for a seventh straight year.
In the Yaowangshan farm produce market, approximately 300 meters west of the Potala Palace square of Lhasa, Yudron, 68, bought some asparagus.
“In the past, when the New Year came in winter, we had to stock up on vegetables in advance, mainly radishes, cabbages, and potatoes,” Yudron said. “Now I buy whatever I want.” …
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-01/25/c_139696392.htm
January 25, 2021
#ProsperityOnthePlateau: What Tibetans buy reveals better lives
LHASA — Right after obtaining his driving license, Dainzin went to Lhasa, the regional capital city, to buy a car.
“Now that I have more spare money, I’m going to own a car and enjoy my life,” said the farmer from the Township of Zhaxoi, Tibet Autonomous Region, southwest China.
After Dainzin’s children graduated from college and began to work, the annual per capita income of this family has exceeded 20,000 yuan (3,094 U.S. dollars).
Dainzin’s family is one among 3.44 million people in Tibet who have seen their incomes increase and lives improve. Last year, the region’s GDP surpassed 190 billion yuan (around 29.2 billion U.S. dollars); the per capita disposable income for rural residents grew 12.7 percent to 14,598 yuan, while that for urban residents rose 10 percent to 41,156 yuan.
Increasing incomes have transformed consumption habits on the plateau….
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=F7Xa
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, United States, India, Japan and Germany, 1977-2020
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=F7Xg
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, United States, India, Japan and Germany, 1977-2020
(Indexed to 1977)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FuUh
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, United States and European Union, 1977-2020
(Percent change)
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=FuUn
August 4, 2014
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for China, United States and European Union, 1977-2020
(Indexed to 1977)
Menzie, please post something. Anything. This comments section needs to be consigned to the bin.
There is a handful of commenters who think their pontification about Ukraine (Moscow, Washington, Beijing, London…) is more important than what is actually happening. A fresh start may not improve things, but it’s worth a try.
Pretty please?
i did notice —– was not standing together with the people…
[ Such racism, such disdain for those who are disabled is beyond shameful, beyond contempt. ]
you had better explain what i said that was racist, or apologize for slander ltr. i believe prof chinn has a policy against calling somebody racist without evidence.
i have no disdain whatsoever for those that are disabled. i am also a voice for those peaceful people that are facing unprovoked military annihilation, such as in ukraine. you are silent on that subject, ltr. throwing out the race card in response is juvenile, ltr.
https://english.news.cn/20220303/bd5258c6f46f4a74a609468d1ee60416/c.html
March, 2022
China’s Parasports:
Progress and the Protection of Rights
By The State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China
Contents
Preamble
I. Parasports Have Progressed Through National Development
II. Physical Activities for Persons with Disabilities Have Flourished
III. Performances in Parasports Are Improving Steadily
IV. Contributing to International Parasports
V. Achievements in Parasports Reflect Improvements in China’s Human Rights
Conclusion
Preamble
Sports are important for all individuals, including those with a disability. Developing parasports is an effective way to help persons with disabilities to improve physical fitness, pursue physical and mental rehabilitation, participate in social activities, and achieve all-round development. It also provides a special opportunity for the public to better understand the potential and value of the disabled, and promote social harmony and progress. In addition, developing parasports is of great importance in ensuring that persons with disabilities can enjoy equal rights, integrate readily into society, and share the fruits of economic and social progress. Participation in sports is an important right of persons with disabilities as well as an integral component of human rights protection….
Well, Menzie, given that the Duck is calling for you to shut this thread off by making another post, let me comment on the original actual post ttself.
So I guess we should be pleased that employment growth has been as great as it has been recently. As some are warning, if oil prices and some other key ones keep shooting up dramatically at some point we may indeed experience what we have in the past when oil price shocks have been sufficiently large: an economic slowdown, stagflation. Some are even calling for a recession about to arrive, which will bring that employment growth to an end, if not outright reverse it. We shall see.