Predictions – Oil Prices and Recoveries and Recessions

A bit over 12 years ago, one prognosticator Steven Kopits wrote:

With the 9.4% unemployment report WTI oil prices are, I believe, effectively at a post-crash high.

I think the economic news suggests that we are running up the back of the “V”.
This is good news and bad news. The good news: an unexpectedly sharp recovery. The bad news: Our analysis suggests the US falls back into recession above $80 oil, and I think we’ll have a chance to test the hypothesis relatively soon.

Here is a picture of US GDP (relative to potential GDP), and oil prices (WTI). I see neither a “V”, nor a recession, despite oil prices exceeding $80/bbl.

Figure 1: GDP in billions Ch.2012$, SAAR (black, left log scale), potential GDP (gray, left log scale), price of oil, WTI, $/bbl (red, right log scale). NBER defined recession dates, peak-to-trough, shaded gray. Teal arrow at Mr. Kopits’ prediction. Source: BEA, CBO (July 2021), EIA, and NBER.

Lest there be any dispute over whether the recovery from the Great Recession was a “V” or not, I provide a comparison between the ongoing and last recovery (personally, I still think the current is more “reverse-radical” than “V”, but you get the point).

Figure 2: GDP in bn.Ch2012$, in logs normalized to trough value, for 2020Q2 (blue), for 2009Q2 (brown). Red dashed line at trough. Source: BEA, NBER, and author’s calculations.

So, as you hear many definitive predictions flying around, think about the sources as you consider their plausibility.

151 thoughts on “Predictions – Oil Prices and Recoveries and Recessions

  1. Moses Herzog

    I wrote an angry email letter to a Midwestern prof about “shape” of the Great Recovery once (I wasn’t angry at the professor, just angry about some blog interactions over the topic). Sometimes I wonder if that prof remembers what I thought about it. But still, I’d rather he kept it to himself.

  2. Moses Herzog

    If violence or observing human beings hurt other human beings emotionally upsets you, I advise you not to watch the link. If you want a small “feel” for what is happening in Ukraine then you can take a look
    https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-luhansk-shchastya-shelling/31717402.html

    Shchastia (I have seen various, but similar spellings), appears to be, if I still have the ability to read a map, northwest of Luhansk if you have a hard time finding it. Northwest of Luhansk.

    1. JohnH

      I have to give the Russians credit for the most amazing invasion ever. Unlike the US invasion of Iraq, there were no bombs busting in air, no rockets red glare. BBC didn’t even show any movement of tanks, armored personnel carriers, or troop movements. Nada!

      But Blinken insists that there was an invasion. How did the Russians suddenly become invisible? How did the firing of rockets suddenly escape infrared detection? Simply amazing!!! The US may have stealth bombers, but Russia must have a whole stealth army! How did they pull that off?

      Were the army of war correspondents all caught napping, their ears firmly plugged, their eyes well masked? Or can it all be explained by a simple Orwellian redefinition of the word ‘invasion?’

      1. pgl

        You used to tell us that the press was making up this crisis. Now that Putin has invaded – you have turned around ot say the press was napping. I predicted you would deny your first line of “reasoning”.

        You are sick,. No – you are a traitor. I guess you will at least get to appear on the Tucker Carlson Show along with your good buddy Donald Trump.

          1. Steven Kopits

            You really do need to lay off the bottle a bit. You have been truly reduced to ranting polemics.

  3. ltr

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-23/Chinese-mainland-records-205-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Sykzu7cY0/index.html

    February 23, 2022

    Chinese mainland reports 205 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland recorded 205 confirmed COVID-19 cases on Tuesday, with 90 linked to local transmissions and 115 from overseas, data from the National Health Commission showed on Wednesday.

    A total of 67 new asymptomatic cases were also recorded, and 703 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation. Confirmed cases on the Chinese mainland now total 108,194, with the death toll unchanged at 4,636 since January last year.

    Chinese mainland new locally transmitted cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-23/Chinese-mainland-records-205-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Sykzu7cY0/img/fe5e760981d0423cb23c2f008d319918/fe5e760981d0423cb23c2f008d319918.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new imported cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-23/Chinese-mainland-records-205-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Sykzu7cY0/img/02acfea72f3e439a988a12eea1cf2a6f/02acfea72f3e439a988a12eea1cf2a6f.jpeg

    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases

    https://news.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-23/Chinese-mainland-records-205-confirmed-COVID-19-cases-17Sykzu7cY0/img/2bcf219e1bd14bf1a4fc544fa92b4998/2bcf219e1bd14bf1a4fc544fa92b4998.jpeg

    1. ltr

      http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/20220222/fd1ce94d602c4433933597601bef894e/c.html

      February 22, 2022

      More than 3.09 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses administered on Chinese mainland

      BEIJING — The number of COVID-19 vaccine doses administered on the Chinese mainland had reached over 3.09 billion by Monday, up about 5.6 million over the day before, data from the National Health Commission showed Tuesday.

      [ The number of COVID-19 vaccination doses administered per 100 people in China is over 214. ]

  4. Steven Kopits

    If you use my forecast, you can attribute it to me, Menzie.

    There are two components here. The first is the shape of the recovery. This was disputed at the time, but my recollection is that Jim and Bill McBride called it correctly as an “L”. I thought we would recover faster, because I thought it was an ordinary recession. As it turned out, it was a depression and the proper comparable was the Great Depression of the 1930s. To date, you have not distinguished between a recession and a depression (or heaven help us, a suppression). If you want to explain the difference between a recession and a depression, or why it took seven years for the economy to regain previous highs after 2008, well, go ahead. I’m all ears. You know my views. I have written them here many times.

    The second number is $80, which refers to carrying capacity, that is, the oil price at which the economy is pushed into recession. I have done more work on that, and there is a difference between the price at which the economy can no longer add oil consumption and that at which it falls into recession. As it turned out, WTI averaged $110+ in Q1 2011, promptly sending Europe into a brutal two year recession which, if I recall correctly, Scott Sumner attributed rather implausibly to a 0.25% increase in the ECB interest rate.

    So, live and learn. Not all my forecasts are correct. Having said that, when I wrote “Sucker Punch”, back in Feb 2021, I noted that prices could approach $100 WTI because OPEC+ would be in control of incremental barrels and, as a result, they would only increase the oil supply with a lag to demand growth, leading to progressively higher prices. You’ll recall, pgl on multiple occasions derided this forecast as unfounded. At the time, the EIA STEO was forecasting $49 for WTI in February 2022.

    WTI today is around $92. I leave it to you to decide who was the better forecaster.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Steven Kopits: I now attribute the forecast to you.

      By 2009, many of us who understood the nature of the crisis thought that deleveraging would result in a slow recovery, based on history (and differentiating between financial crisis like “runs” and big overleveraging events). Republican intransigence on further stimulus at both federal and state level further solidified my belief in a slow recovery (latter discussed by Krugman at end-2008, the Economist notes by July 2009, before your prediction).

      1. Steven Kopits

        You’re describing the path of a depression, aren’t you?

        Do you recommend MMT? I think Scott Sumner did de facto, and over time, I have come to see the situation is largely a similar way.

        1. Menzie Chinn Post author

          Steven Kopits: Since there’s no fixed definition of depression (and each time you mention depression, I tell you that – to no avail). But for me, no. MMT is a theory, not so much a policy prescription. I don’t think you understand the economic framework of MMT (if indeed anybody does); all you know is the policy prescription. But you can get to the policy prescription from different analytical frameworks. However, I suspect that nuance eludes you.

          1. pgl

            His macro vocabulary seems to be limited to 3 words (recession, depression, and of course his pet term suppression). It is like someone who just bought a paint by numbers set and thinks he is Michelangelo.

          2. Steven Kopits

            Well, it’s two words more than Menzie has, isn’t it? And if you confuse a suppression for a depression, you get CPI at 7.5%, don’t you?

      2. pgl

        “I thought we would recover faster, because I thought it was an ordinary recession.”

        Well at least his view back then was not as bad of Donald Luskin telling us on 9/14/2008 there would be no recession.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Steven,

      Of course Menzie is right that there is no clear distinction between a recession and a depression. If one goes back in time the only one of these that was used for an economic decline, although we are talking of a time when there was not any measuring of what we now call GDP going on, the only term that was used was “depression.” The term “recession” was coined until the 1937 decline during the Great Depression period, coined to indicate something less than the Great depression. of course the Great Depression was so great people began to think that the world “depression” could only be used for something that bad, and all declines later would come to be called by this new term, “recession.”

      Which indeed does raise the question of can we distinguish. Well, we have people calling what happened in 2008-10 “the Great Recession,” but indeed there is a long literature that Bernanke seriously contributed to as well as Rogoff and many others (and even me in my 1991 book) that distinguished between two different types of downturns, shorter ones and longer ones. We might now say that the former should be called “recessions” and the longer ones “deptressions,” although somehow nobody did calle the 2008-10 event the latter term. But it exhibited the chareacteristics of those longer term events and was clearly the first such one we had seen since the Great Depression. Menzie pinned it with his reference to “deleveraging,” with indeed the character of those longer ones, “depressions,” involving major collapses of the financial system, with that leading to a long and slow recovery.

      I had forgottem that back when it was happening you failed to figure out what was going on, whatever one should call these things. After the Minsky Moment in September, 2008, it was very clear with people like both Bernanke and Rogoff calling it, that we were in one of those longer term downward turns that would take a long time to get out of. I do not think I used the term “depression” at the time, but I saw it at the time and posted about it, both here and on Econospeak.

      1. Steven Kopits

        Again, 7.5% inflation tells us that the profession cannot distinguish between a depression and suppression. The Fed screwed the pooch.

        Similarly, the Fed’s interest rate policy during the Great Recession was ineffective. Had it been a recession, it would have worked. But if the collateral is compromised, interest rate policy lacks a transmission mechanism, at least for a good part of the economy. Unsterilized injections to households would appear to be the appropriate policy, wouldn’t it? But that wasn’t policy, was it?

        There are differences between recessions, depressions and suppressions, then you need different tools, and if you don’t understand the differences then your policy will be ineffective, as was the case during the GR (but after the GFC) and is certainly the case now.

        1. pgl

          Suppression? I predicted Princeton Parrot would utter that nonsensical term. Look arrogant moron – your criticisms of the FED are almost as STOOPID as your foreign policy advice.

  5. Anonymous

    I don’t understand some of the complicated charts.

    1. What is “potential GDP” (first chart)?

    2. What exactly is the left axis, second chart? (Need a longer figure caption explanation.) Is it rate of change (%)? log rate of change (%)? And how do you get a zero on a log scale, or is that more some sort of relative basis? Sorry…just confused…can’t even ask exact questions, but that axis mystifies me.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Anonymous: (1) If you don’t know what potential GDP is after commenting on this blog for months, I can’t help you. (2) Ln(1)=0, so a figure of 0.05 would mean GDP is 5% higher than at trough (expressed in log terms).

  6. Steven Kopits

    As for other forecasts. I stated that Chinese Americans would come under increasing pressure as China became more authoritarian and tightened the squeeze on Taiwan. And here you have it, paradoxically from Bill Maher.

    He notes that Eileen Gu, American-born freestyle skier who elected to represent China, “chose to represent a totalitarian police state over America.” Maher is implying that Gu is something of a traitor, isn’t he? It used to be okay for Americans to represent other countries in the Olympics, but clearly something has changed.

    What’s changed is that China has positioned itself as enemy of the US and the enemy of self-determination and freedom. Or as Maher states of China, “We knew there were s**thole countries, but who knew there was a s**thole superpower?” And clearly the public is increasingly antagonistic to China, with US viewership of the Olympics at a record low and 43% below those from South Korea. China may still have the wallets, if not the hearts and minds, of Hollywood, Nike and the NBA, but it is rapidly losing the support of the public around the globe. China’s behavior is steadily eroding the standing of Chinese expats and Chinese-Americans, who will increasingly be forced to take sides, a la Ms. Gu.

    If you think I like this, I certainly don’t. Nothing good will come of it, but that’s where we’re heading. That’s Xi’s legacy.

    And that was a forecast, too.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=50vs0cDuWQQ

    https://www.npr.org/2022/02/22/1082461546/no-medals-for-2022-beijing-olympics-the-games-drew-their-lowest-u-s-ratings-ever#:~:text=The%20Games%20drew%20their%20lowest%20U.S.%20ratings%20ever&text=Ashley%20Landis%2FAP-,Reports%20released%20Monday%20indicate%20there%20was%20an%20average%20total%20audience,Games%20in%20Pyeongchang%2C%20South%20Korea.

    1. Menzie Chinn Post author

      Steven Kopits: Well, duh, you were the only one who figured Xi’s aggressive stances would make life less pleasant for Chinese Americans? Let me say I was plenty worried before, and with people like Trump and you beating the drum to use the term “China virus”, I was more worried. So, on behalf of all Asian-Americans, thanks Mr. Kopits!
      (Man, only a person who had to be taught about the origins of the late 1940’s wave of the Chinese diaspora, and why the Exclusion Laws were overturned only in the 1940’s would write what you write.)

          1. Moses Herzog

            https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-announces-funding-assist-asian-american-community-organizations-across-new

            Are Chinese American communities being treated equitably compared to other communities/Americans?? One might guess “No”. But I suspect part of this is due to Chinese American communities at least to a degree insulating themselves (often but not always by their own choice) from the broader American community (I have thoughts on that but I’ll let the reader choose the reasons) and that the character of most American Chinese makes them feel it is “weak” or “bad” to ask for economic help.

      1. Moses Herzog

        Don’t be too pessimistic Menzie, we have a lot of foreign policy experts visiting this blog:
        “The other one, where I am forecasting a more optimistic outcome has to do with the current Russia-Ukraine situation. Bottom line for Ignatius is pessimistic, that Russia will make cyberattacks on Ukraine that lead to people freezing this winter, will allow the Donbas separatists to attack Ukrainian forces and expand their territory of conrtrol, and then create broader chaos in Ukraine that will justify a full-scale invasion by Russia of Ukraine.

        I think a more optimistic answer is more likely, although certainly not certain. This one says that Putin will gradually pull troops back after some sort of sufficiently face-saving deal is cut. This seems to be what people in Ukraine think, although maybe the generally astute Ignatious knows better. But I hope he is wrong for this coming new year.”
        https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/dare-i-disagree-with-david-ignatius.html

        This “expert” on Russia held onto this same view, literally until just days ago. At least for this moment, I’ll spare you the Econbrowser permalinks.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Moses,

          No, I changed my view more than “just days ago.” I even put a more recent post on Econospeak some time ago where I noted that it looked like Ignatius might well be right. I do note that he was wrong that Ukrainians would freeze because of cyberattacks. That has not happened. And while Russian troops are moving in to the LPR and DPR, now recognized, something I have forecasted Putin was likely to do, what I viewed as the likely “face saving deal,” it remains unclear he will follow through on a full scale invasion. The most likely sort run move would be to try to expand the territoty controlled by the LPR and DPR to cover the entire oblasts of their names the are in, which would involve expanding the territory each control by about threefold. That looks highly likely. But beyond that, well, in not too far away Kharkiv, people are reportedly not super worried, altough somewhat more so than they were People in Kyiv are getting more worried.

          Putin’s speech was seriously off the wall. I have emphasized that he is highly unpredictable, so he indeed could do a full scale invasion, although I have had my doubts about these reports from the admin that he has definitely decided to do so. I do not think they know what he thinks. His speech could be used to justify a full scale invasion, but a lot of it also could support just an expansion of the territory controlled by the LPR and DPR. The full scale invasion Ignatius predicted and I doubted has not happened yet, so do not get to tooting your horn too loudly, Moses. I realize you are struggling to score some points, given how big of a fool you have been making of yourself on all this. And, of course, you are back to emboldening words, although you have been told umpteen times that is prima facie evidence that what you are writing is wrong or misguided.

          Oh, it does look like Ignatius might be right and me wrong about a revival of the iran deal. I hope I am wrong on that one, although the deal does not seem quite cinched yet. I note that in the post you quoted on all this, I made it clear that on both matters, the iran deal and a possible full scale invasion of Ukraine, they were both close calls that could easily go either way.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior, Foreign Policy Dunce
            You were warned about the permalinks. But similar to your extremely ignorant buddy, formerly of stinky Jersey, you must have it your way. And so, you will have it your way:

            “Do keep in mind I am the one here with access to Russian media. That has now been blaring for several days that the troops will go home after the exercises are done, and exercises are exactly what they are doing now. This has more recently been reinforced by statements from Putin in press conferences, such as the one just held after the visit of German Chancellor Scholze.

            There is not going to be an invasion, even if some of the details of what Zelensky and Ukraine may agree to are not fully settled, and Victoria Nuland has been shooting her mouth off too much, somebody I wish was not part of this administration.”
            http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/02/risk-and-uncertainty-before-the-open#comment-268219

            The above comment by Barkley Rosser was made on February 16, a Wednesday afternoon, 1 week ago.

            You say you changed your declaration that “There is not going to be an invasion” “more than just days ago”. Really?? 7 days, so I guess you’d prefer I say it was exactly 7 days ago you said there would be no invasion of Ukraine. Wow, and I thought your pal Kopits’ selective amnesia was bad.

          2. Moses Herzog

            It’s worthy to note, among many other things Barkley Rosser managed to get horribly wrong here, this wasn’t long after Barkley had claimed the meeting with Olaf Scholz had been “cancelled”. It had not been cancelled, and there were pictures verifying thus online.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, Moses, I thought you did not like Ignatius. Funny how you are now siding with him when I disagreed with him, noting at the time that I could easily end up wrong, given his better access to inside intel than I have. Amusing.

          1. Barkley Rosser

            I am watching Lawrence O’Donnell. Reporting is now coming in that bombs are landing in Kyiv. This is very sad.

            I note that Putin just finished speaking. He announced a military action in “eastern Ukraine.” If he is bombing Kyiv, that is beyond what he announced. At this point I only note that the latest poll out of Russia is that while supposedly 50% of Russians aupport “military action” to keep Ukraine out of NATO, but that an effort to militarily unite Russia and Ukraine is only supported by 36% with 43% against.

            I also note the blazing lie that Putin spewed last night that “Russia created modern Ukraine” and also that it was done by “Lenin and the Bolsheviks.” In 1917 a Ukrainian Peoples’s Republic was declared, with this state declaring its independence from Russia in 1918. It would come to an end in 1920 when Poland conquered its western part and Soviet Russia conquered its central and eastern parts. When Lenin extablished the Ukrainian SSR, it was doing so out of part of the previously existing independent Ukrainian nation.

          2. Moses Herzog

            What is it you feel sad about air-to-ground missiles being targeted in Kyiv Barkley?? The fact it makes you look like a complete buffoon for criticizing the decision to move the U.S. Embassy from Kyiv to Lviv and labeling it “cowardly”?? Having to admit you were wrong on God knows how many Ukraine statements you’ve made?? Or just knowing regulars on this blog are cognizant of the fact your knowledge about the realities of Ukraine and Russian leadership goes about as deep as Michael Flynn’s??…… only that even Michael Flynn probably had Putin pegged better than you. Which one of those items makes you sad Junior??

          3. Barkley Rosser

            Sure, Moses, have fun being right that the worst is happening. I would note that this goes rather beyond our petty fight, which I have never figures out why you have been so obsessed with.

          4. Barkley Rosser

            Oh, Moses, if one wants to play this game of who is or was right about what, Brent crude oil prices have now gone above $100 per barrel. You said this was completely out of the question while I said it most certainly could happen. But this is also not something to crow about. Things are now bad on a bunch of fronts.

            BTW, it remains the fact that lots of people in Ukraine itself remained complacent about this situation up to the last minute. I have watched on TV people going to work without any big fuss in Kharkiv, with bombs going off within hearting with tanks reportedly rolling in towards the city. OTOH, in Kyiv people have panicked more, with cars streaming out.

            I hope you enjoy this a whole lot.

          5. Moses Herzog

            Poor Barkley, grabbing at straws again. No, once again you are wrong, Oh Great Attention-Seeker of Harrisonburg. I said I didn’t think it would rise above $100 before December 31, 2021. Do I need to teach you how to understand a Gregorian Calendar now??

    2. pgl

      OK I decided to watch that bit from Bill Maher and now I wished I had not. I get he was trying to get a few laugh lines but to abuse an Olympic athlete (Eileen Gu) for laugh lines or your sick political agenda makes me want to throw up. You have no shame – none at all.

  7. Erik Poole

    Economic forecasting’s big secret — none of it works over a cost effective time horizon. With one exception: US yield curve recession forecasting. US yield curve forecasting does not work as well for other rich economies. Hence the following question.

    I wonder if US yield curve forecasting in part because US excise taxes on gasoline and diesel are the lowest among the rich OECD club members. The the minimal role of consumption taxes in general may also contribute.

    It would certainly appear that that low US excise taxes on gasoline and diesel contribute to greater macroeconomic volatility. That is a question of understanding percentages and proportional impacts on consumer budgets.

  8. Bruce Hall

    So, Jen Psaki tells reporters that the sanctions against the Russians will raise fuel prices for Americans. That’ll show ’em.
    https://currently.att.yahoo.com/news/psaki-says-americans-expect-higher-002716714.html

    Meanwhile, the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming!
    https://currently.att.yahoo.com/finance/news/marathon-huge-louisiana-oil-refinery-171517412.html

    We’ll take the Russian sanctions price increase and raise them with a shut down refinery. That’ll really show ’em.

    Hey, here’s another idea! Menzie will love it. Let’s put tariffs on Russian goods and call them sanctions. Gotta pull all the right levers.

    1. pgl

      Listen Chicken Hawk. Until you drop playing video games and decided to join the Ukraine Army on the front lines, you pathetic little chirping is beyond insulting. Princeton Steve claims he is willing to take arms – I would suggest you join him. But yea I get it – you are a complete coward.

      1. Bruce Hall

        pgl,

        You are sounding more and more like Chicken Little. Get a grip, man!

        I’m with Tulsi on this one. This Biden tough guy pretense is getting nowhere and going nowhere good. You Democrats sympathizers need to get out of your reality show and plug into reality. The closest you ever got to the military was watching old John Wayne war movies.

        1. pgl

          If your boy Trump were still President, Putin would have been handed all of Ukraine in exchange for a few lines about how Putin has a heart crush on the DONALD.

          Truth is that Trump almost destroyed NATO – which is a chief goal for Putin. Biden has put NATO back together. Now we know Kelly Anne Conway has you on a short leash but even you have to recognize that. That you would ever admit is a laugh as honesty has never been one of your attributes.

          1. Anonymous

            nato is irrelevant. minor use to the nuclear forces.

            moving it into ukraine does not make nato relevant.

            cold warriors with the weapons of mass destruction

            saw nato as “when they get over run” they will call us!

            you want the place they get ‘over run’ to be in ukraine.

            find a ground zero to live on so you go fast and clean.

            brooklyn is no longer worth nuking.

        2. pgl

          “The closest you ever got to the military was watching old John Wayne war movies.”

          That is pretty funny from the scared little boy who has not left his basement for over 23 months. Tell you mom to make sure she pays your Netflix bill on time.

          1. Bruce Hall

            pgl,

            I’ll give you a little tidbit: Strategic Air Command; 1968-72; Oscar Flight; MMII Combat Crew Commander … height of Cold War with Soviets and primary target of their nukes.

            You probably were still a suckling babe.. You have no real military legs to stand on.

    2. pgl

      “Marathon Petroleum Corp.’s oil refinery near New Orleans exploded into flames on Monday, threatening to crimp fuel supplies and raise pump prices at a time of already rampant inflation.”

      Are you saying Putin pulled this off? If so, it is not only a lie but the kind of STUPID lie that you excel in. And no – no one shut this down. It was a tragic accident that injured 5 people. I’m sure the families of those 5 would be “amused” that you choose to make a joke out of this.

      I would ask if you could get more disgusting but we know you – you will find a way. Pathetic POS!

    3. pgl

      “Hey, here’s another idea! Menzie will love it. Let’s put tariffs on Russian goods and call them sanctions. Gotta pull all the right levers.”

      I’m sure Dr. Chinn knows this but let’s educate the Village Idiot named Bruce Hall. Outside of oil and precious stones, the US imports very little from Russia. Pull the right levers Bruce – how are you doing to do that when you know absolutely nothing. Nothing at all.

      1. Bruce Hall

        Hey, pgl. You day trade so you know that a reduction of 7% of U.S. petroleum might have a little effect on economic activity in the U.S. As to tariffs, too bad your intellect isn’t capable of recognizing sarcasm.

        Can I get a video copy of you challenging Putin to a one-on-one fisticuffs?

        1. pgl

          Where did you pull this 7% from? Your rear end? Or maybe you misunderstood what Macroduck wrote. You are THAT stupid.

    4. Moses Herzog

      Bruce, I think it’s good a guy such as yourself visits this blog. I genuinely believe it could be beneficial to you, JohnH, and others. However if you come here so dogmatically spoon-fed by right-wing sources, refusing to absorb even the tiniest drop of reality based knowledge, then it seems to me like you are just spinning your wheels. Which honestly strikes me as sad.

      1. Bruce Hall

        Moses, I like your tangents more than most I’m guessing, but you know there are a lot of people who understand that when countries decide to become war participants, economics goes out the door. Biden is making the Russian quake in their furry boots as he increases the value of their assets (oil, precious metals, and minerals).

        But hey, on a lighter note, the Queen of England is now being treated with Ivermectin for her COVID.
        https://twitter.com/JoostBroekers/status/1495739818407518208

        And… I heard that some looney Democratic Party congressman said all trucks participating in a protest convoy should be seized and sold to corporations. Yeah, that’s Constitutional.
        https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1496138717890850819

        Menzie hasn’t put up my comment with the video from Tulsi Gabbard, so I’ll post it her again for you.
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u6AsFCm_ACA

    5. Barkley Rosser

      Bruce,

      It is only being honest to recognize that economic sanctions hurt us as well as the Russians. The Germans will be hurt by shutting off the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, but Russia will be hurt more by the loss of income. We shall face higher oil prices, which is certainly annoying, and the S&P has declined by more than 15. technically now a “correction.” But the Russian stock market is now down by a lot more, over a third, although that may not bother Putin who seems to be in his own egomaniacal bubble.

  9. ltr

    I stated that Chinese Americans would come under increasing pressure as China became more ….

    [ This is definitive racism. Falsely asserted and rationalized racism which is always morally and ethically intolerable.

    Shameful, threatening, utterly harmful racism. ]

    1. pgl

      Princeton Steve is a racist? OK – I’m not going to argue the other way for sure.

      Then again Bruce Hall’s racism is much more blatant.

  10. ltr

    I stated that Chinese Americans would come under increasing pressure as China became more ….

    [ Could as well be:

    I stated that Jewish Americans would come under increasing pressure as Israel became more ….
    I stated that African Americans would come under increasing pressure as Ghana became more …. ]

        1. Steven Kopits

          As we have discussed, Japanese-Americans and German-Americans received different treatment in World War II. Japanese-Americans were interned; German-Americans were not. The reason: Japanese-Americans looked different, ie, non-European. Yes, that is the point I am trying to make. This is not a novel insight. That has nothing to do with my feelings towards race. Rather, it is simply a historical fact, and I believe that Menzie has also covered this point somewhere along the line.

          By the way, being Russian isn’t going to be any great shakes in the next several months, either.

  11. ltr

    What’s changed is that China has positioned itself as enemy of the US and the enemy of …

    [ A pernicious, false, unconscionable assertion. Such an assertion is meant to endanger and harm. We are returned in such an assertion to the Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882-1943.

    This is as the terrible writing of the 1930s, directed against the European Jews. ]

    1. Steven Kopits

      China has positioned itself as the enemy of the United States. Got it? That’s why Eileen Gu took such flak.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      And we have bloggers in China calling Koreans “subhuman” because a Korean silver medalist dusted off a podium before standing on it.

      BTW, ltr, I am waiting for you to figure out that your accusation that I “bullied” you was way off. Please do that. I did not bully you when you claimed I did, although in response to your false accusation I have come down hard on you.

      BTW, while it looks like you somehow do not like my comments about the Chinese position no Putin and Ukraine, note that I favorably compared Xi Jinping to Putin, saying he had a more rational view of things. I have said that he is supporting the general diplimatic position of Putin about NATO expansion, and probably will give some support if sanctions come on hard. But he actually does oppose a full blown invasion of Ukraine, specifically supporting its territorial integrity. Tosay’s WaPo says he is walking “a thin line,” trying to provide some support for Putin, but not too much, and if he is hit with really serious economi csanctions, only a limited amount of economic support to offset that.

      A very important difference in views is that Xi supports a rules-based global order, and he and other Chinese leaders see Putin as not doing so. Of course Xi and the other Chinese leaders view Taiwan as being recognized as part of China according to the rules, in contrast to Ukraine or any part of it as part of Russia. China has not recognized any of the Russia-backe separatist republics and has also not recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea, although demanding Zelensky do so was a major part of this insane speech Putin gave after recoginzing the LPR and DPR. He really is capable of almost anything, including using nuclear weapons, which he keeps also talking about. The pitiful helpless giant needs to keep upping his threats because nobody respects his stupid tanks.

  12. ltr

    That’s Xi’s legacy.

    [ President Xi’s legacy is and will be a profound increase in the well-being of 1.4 billion Chinese, the ending of severe poverty for tens of millions, a marked increase in life-expectancy and healthy life-expectancy, a marked decrease in infant mortality, a profound greening of China. Xi’s legacy will be the extending of Chinese development understanding funding to countries in need all along the Belt and Road, the United Nations is and will be supported by China, a vision of peace will be supported. A legacy that is and will be distinct, but like that of Franklin Roosevelt.

    Xi’s legacy reflects the wishes of the Chinese people. ]

      1. pgl

        My God you are an idiot. FDR did not start that war – Hitler did. Or are you saying we should have just stayed out?

        1. Steven Kopits

          Until Pearl Harbor, 95% of Americans opposed entry into the war. Are you saying we should have entered before Pearl Harbor?

          1. pgl

            Changing the subject. Gee you play this cheap debating trick a lot. I can see why since you continue to say the dumbest things ever.

  13. ltr

    https://english.news.cn/20220221/d4d6606e15c0464f8b40ecb6ccc97400/c.html

    February 21, 2022

    Xi Story: A promise in spring

    BEIJING — In China, the first of the 24 solar terms of the Chinese lunar calendar is called “Lichun,” or the “Beginning of Spring,” which falls in early February every year. It is seen as the start of a promising season full of hope.

    For Jihaoyeqiu, a villager in the mountainous Sanhe Village in southwest China’s Sichuan Province, his memories of spring 2018 are particularly vivid: his family welcomed a special guest, President Xi Jinping.

    About a year before Jihaoyeqiu welcomed the president into his home, Xi participated in deliberations with his fellow deputies from the delegation of Sichuan during the annual session of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislature. During the deliberations, Xi told the deputies, “I have been to most of the country’s ‘contiguous impoverished areas’ and will visit Lyuliang and Liangshan, where I have not yet been, as soon as possible.”

    True to his word, Xi, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, went to the Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture during his inspection tour to Sichuan in February 2018.

    Liangshan is home to China’s largest ethnic Yi community. The prefecture had long struggled with grinding poverty due to rough terrain and a harsh natural environment as well as a lack of roads and amenities. Eleven of the prefecture’s 17 county-level regions were key areas in the state’s poverty alleviation campaign.

    Xi went to the then impoverished Sanhe, a village 2,500 meters above sea level in the Liangshan prefecture.

    Xi passed through a low courtyard gate and walked into Jihaoyeqiu’s home. Before stepping over the threshold, he carefully read the poverty alleviation support card on the door of the house. He then took time to enquire how the family was getting along with their life and whether their children were attending school.

    “I have always been concerned about the Yi people. I am very happy to be here and I am heartened to see that your lives are getting better,” Xi said. Xi was happy to learn that villagers had increased their incomes by raising cattle and growing potatoes, peppers and walnuts.

    Over the years, the Liangshan prefecture had undergone a massive anti-poverty campaign, building over 10,000 kilometers of rural roads, relocating 350,000 residents to government-funded housing, and helping 215 villages develop a collective economy. More than 11,000 officials were sent to villages to assist in local anti-poverty battles….

  14. Moses Herzog

    I got this off of a blog report on CNN:
    “Of particular concern, the US warned, is the major northeastern city of Kharkiv, according to the senior Ukrainian official and a Western official familiar with the intelligence. The Ukrainian foreign minister said on Tuesday there were no plans to evacuate the city.”

    The report was made by journalists: Matthew Chance, Katie Bo Lillis, Kylie Atwood and Vasco Cotovio

    1. Barkley Rosser

      Moses,

      According to a long story in today’s WaPo, people there are pretty calm, although according to you they should be running around freaking out. It may be that they are all a bunch of fools. But in fact I suspect another element of this is that because the city is dominated by ethnic Russians, they figure that life will go back to normal if they get conquered. But all accounts they do not support Putin or an invasion. But if it happens, they will move on.

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Barkley Junior
        Every time I think you can’t possibly set a lower bar for yourself with your statements—you do it. You have a “unique perspective” about air strikes etc in Kharkiv. And instead of tearing down what you said, I will let people judge this comment themselves, and maybe perhaps link back to this in future threads.

        1. Barkley Rosser

          Um, you [edited – MDC], this statement by me looks correct. Kharkiv is now under attack, and the people there are not getting all worked up. I am watching it live on TV. Do not overdo stuff here. You still mostly have no idea what you are talking about, even if there is now a full invasion by Russia of Ukraine you thought would happen. But you only knew what you read in a few sources.

          Want tot tell us how oil was never going to hit $100 barrel?

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            It was stated in multiple comments that I didn’t think it would happen before December 31, 2021. Is your early stage dementia popping up its ugly head again?? Or is it just your hurt ego’s selective amnesia?? Personally, I suspect it’s BOTH but that’s the problem with narcissists who can’t admit they are wrong, one really never knows.

        2. Barkley Rosser

          BTW, another area on this where you have been off has to do with the embassy issue. Reportedly sirens are also going off in Lviv where the US embassy ran to from Kyiv. Yeah, probably Kyiv will fall before Lviv. But if that happens, Lviv will fall also. So I do not see what the point of moving the embassy there was, a complete waste. But you were all for it, if we are going to play a game of who made an incorrect call on all this.

          1. Moses herzog

            I think the vast majority of policy experts would still say moving the embassy personnel to Lviv (let’s ask Menzie, shall we??~~he’s not that shy about giving his opinion on international politics) was the wise and prudent move, and provided a much wider margin of safety for the staff of the U.S. embassy. But that would mean you were wrong about another thing, and that is just not computable for a narcissist, is it Junior??

          2. Moses Herzog

            I think the vast majority of policy experts would still say moving the embassy personnel to Lviv (let’s ask Menzie, shall we??~~he’s not that shy about giving his opinion on international politics) was the wise and prudent move, and provided a much wider margin of safety for the staff of the U.S. embassy. But that would mean you were wrong about another thing, and that is just not computable for a narcissist, is it Junior??

          3. Moses Herzog

            @ Menzie
            I’m not big on interpersonal friction, I’m really not. I will “let off the dogs” as it were and you have my word this will be my last comment in this thread. But some people make it so hard not to get the knife out Menzie, some people make it so hard to keep that sword sheathed.

        3. Barkley Rosser

          As of nearly 2 AM EST, it now looks that people in Kharkiv are now shifting their view. Buying groceries and going home, reportedly “hunkering down” for the impending attack on their city.

          1. Moses Herzog

            @ Barkley Junior
            So…… with Russia targeting air-to-ground missiles in Kharkiv, your reported “city jubilee” has been postponed?? Gosh, what would life without war updates from you at the front lines be like Barkley?? Frightening to even ponder. At least you’re not a “coward” like those U.S. embassy workers in Lviv, aye??

          2. Menzie Chinn Post author

            Moses Herzog: Seriously, comments are in part for sharing information. If someone is sharing information on fast moving events, do not disparage – you can comment and critique the data and sources, but do not criticize someone for trying to sharing information.

    2. Moses Herzog

      Strange…….. this doesn’t seem to “jive” with what I seem to recall someone on this blog referring to as a “cowardly” move of U.S. embassy personnel from Kyiv to Lviv.
      https://twitter.com/NorahODonnell/status/1496685325661450240

      Well, I’m sure that guy has “inside information” yet to be unveiled. You know how it is being a Harrisonburg VA secret agent with Russian connections and all. He’ll “let us in on” what we’re missing here.

  15. pgl

    I just heard someone say something new and also perhaps smart. Putin wants Americans to be divided. Now there are a few folks here that get Putin’s invasion is awful but also get that criticizing Biden for not starting World War III yet is really dumb.

    But alas we have quite a few Putin fanboys including Donald Trump and Tucker Carlson plus two clowns here (you know who you are). And then we have those who have decided to run to the right of even John Bolton (you clowns also know who you are too).

    So I get the sense that Putin are reading those particular comments and thinking – do I have Americans fooled even more than when I put Trump in the White House? Way to sell out our nation fellows!

    1. Barkley Rosser

      pgl,

      Note that the GOP is now totally incoherent on Ukraine. We have one group running around like Trump saying Putin is a geniuis and we should support Russia conquering Ukraine. Then we have this other group denouncing Biden because he has not already imposed all the possible economic sanctions we possibly can against Putin, somehow failing to notice that this would completely destroy whatever deterrent power such sanctions might have. It may be that Putin does not care about sanctions, but the big one, shutting them off from SWIFT, will hurt his rich cronies a lot. That one should be held in abeyance to punish a full scale invasion, if that happens.

    2. Anonymous

      mea culpa, mea culpa, mea maxima culpa

      beating breast w/each culpa!

      you are more recondite than today’s market close!

  16. pgl

    https://news.yahoo.com/irans-raisi-calls-international-community-094825189.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    VIENNA (Reuters) -Talks on restoring a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear programme and ease sanctions are near conclusion, a Russian envoy said on Tuesday, and sources close to the negotiations said a prisoner swap between Iran and the United States is expected soon. “Apparently the negotiations on restoration of #JCPOA are about to cross the finish line,” Mikhail Ulyanov said on Twitter, using the 2015 agreement’s full name, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Reuters reported last week that a U.S.-Iranian deal was taking shape in Vienna after months of talks between Tehran and major powers to revive the nuclear deal pact, abandoned in 2018 by then-U.S. President Donald Trump, who also reimposed extensive sanctions on Iran.

    We have quite the few Trump fanboys running around saying Biden can’t do foreign policy. When the 2015 deal that Trump to Idiot undermined is brought back to life, these fanboys will look like the lying morons they have always been. But do not expect the fanboys to ever admit it. They do not live in the real world.

    1. T. Shaw

      Putin did not conquer Ukraine when Trump was President.

      Who knows why? The Shadow knows.

      He says, “You can’t handle the truth!”

      1. Barkley Rosser

        T.S.

        Because he did not want to embarrass his flunky Trump before the election, with him hoping Trump would totally dismantle NATO and let him just walk into wherever if he got back in office, and Trump indeed has been reported to say he would end NATO. He is now praising Putin as “a genius” and is supporting him “redrawing the borders of Ukraine.”

        The explanation here is really easy, although people on Fox like Tucker Carlson do not admit it, even as they spout for Putin.

    2. Steven Kopits

      You don’t have to be a fan of Trump to conclude that Biden is the biggest foreign policy disaster since, well, Bush II, assuming things don’t get worse. You’d have to go back to Smoot-Hawley tariff for a bigger blunder in national security terms if you’re looking at the bigger picture.

    1. Anonymous

      biden presidency is best thing happened to me since nov. 2016.

      my room mate’s trump derangement syndrome…. is in remission.

      unfortunately, it does not seem to be a widespread remission

  17. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/health/maternal-deaths-pandemic.html

    February 23, 2022

    Maternal Deaths Rose During the First Year of the Pandemic
    Deaths during pregnancy and the first six weeks after childbirth increased, especially for Black and Hispanic women, according to a new report.
    By Roni Caryn Rabin

    The number of women in the United States who died during pregnancy or shortly after giving birth increased sharply during the first year of the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new study, * an increase that health officials attribute partly to Covid and pandemic-related disruptions.

    The new report, from the National Center for Health Statistics, found that the rate of maternal deaths rose 14 percent, to 861 in 2020 from 754 in 2019.

    The United States already has a much higher maternal mortality rate than other developed countries, and the increase in deaths pushes the nation’s maternal mortality rate to 23.8 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2020 from 20.1 deaths in 2019. Maternal mortality rates in developed countries have in recent years ranged from fewer than two deaths per 100,000 live births in Norway and New Zealand to just below nine deaths per 100,000 live births in France and Canada.

    Black women in America experienced the most deaths: One-third of the pregnant women and new mothers who died in 2020 were Black, though Black Americans make up just over 13 percent of the population. Their mortality rate was nearly three times that of white women….

    * https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/hestat/maternal-mortality/2020/maternal-mortality-rates-2020.htm

  18. ltr

    I am waiting for you to figure out…

    [ Having noticed these words, I immediately stopped reading but should explain: I do wish the writer well, but have no interest in reading or ever responding to a bully. ]

  19. pgl

    Alexander Vidman on the TV rightfully condemning the Putin fanboys such as Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, and Mike Pompeo. Vidman is clearly angry at these traitors and has suggested these Republican fanboys will own the deaths of Ukrainians if an invasion occurs. I only pray he turns out to be right.

  20. ltr

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-world.html

    February 23, 2022

    How China Under Xi Jinping Is Turning Away From the World
    Global engagement has helped the nation prosper. But now, its leader seems intent on recasting the meeting of minds and cultures as a zero-sum clash.
    By Vivian Wang

    [ This is of course completely untrue, actually the precise opposite has occurred and is happening in that China has grown and is becoming ever more open and involved and helpful in international affairs. President Xi continually speaks of an open, engaged China, but the New York Times can write knowingly otherwise and elicit awful comments that repeatedly agree with the falsity of the Times. ]

    1. baffling

      ltr, care to comment on the genocide committed against the uighers in western china? or the military takeover of tibet, a sovereign nation? you are rather quiet on these topics.

    2. Steven Kopits

      Interesting article. They let you link that? You’re living on borrowed time.

      Let me again quote myself:

      Unlike many other analysts, our view holds that China is coming to a crossroads of governance. At some point in the coming years, China will face a crisis which will either take it forward towards advanced country governance or turn it back and lead that great nation to withdraw from the world, as it has without fail throughout its long history.

      I would note that China on paper becomes a democracy in 2026. That is, of course, assuming WWIII in the interim, about which I would currently take the under.

      https://www.princetonpolicy.com/ppa-blog/2018/4/8/chinas-governance-options

  21. Moses Herzog

    The damage in this video (which may be upsetting or “triggering” to some people) was most likely caused by separatists, not Russian soldiers per se, however there was other video on this same website which was uploaded at a later time than this one, in which it was claimed by local Ukrainians that the shelling was more “professional”, which might imply certain things:
    https://www.rferl.org/a/maryinka-ukraine-donbas-russia/31719087.html

  22. David Penwell

    Go team Team Kopits!

    You are correct about China. It will not end well for them. I hope they all kept their bicycles and Mao books.

  23. Barkley Rosser

    Things are very unclear at this moment, 10:40 PM EST. Supposedly explosions are going off in Kyiv. When these were first heard about a half hour ago it was reported this was Russian bombing of the city. However it is now being noted by reporters there that no sirens have gone off in Kyiv, which is what is supposed to happen if bombing happens. So it is unclear exactly what is happening.

    The Russian ambassador is speaking to the UN Security Council. He is blaming everything on the Maidan uprising, which supposedly led to people “pointing guns at Russian people.” Ooooh, everything is Ukraine’s fault for not following through on the Minsk Accords. He is also chairing the Security Council, sheesh. The ambassador claims this operation is to defend the people in the LPR and DPR against “genocide” supposedly being carried out by Ukraine.

    I was last in Kyiv in Sept. 2019, just before it all came out about Trump trying to blackmail Zelensky into investigating the Bidens. Things were good. The mood was good. The economy was growing at 4%, and there were moves against corruption. I had never seen such optimism there.

    Ironically just yesterday I approved the galley proofs for an article to be published in a special issue of a journal. The editor of that special issue is a close friend and longtime profesional colleague who is based in Kyiv and hosted the conference I attended in Sept. 2019. I am very sad how things have changed from that time.

    I also note that any bombing of Kyiv is really terrible. It is a beautiful city.

    The Ukrainian ambassador to the UN is now speaking to the Security Council. He is not saying anything about an attack on Kyiv. He does say Russia has attacked Ukraine.

  24. Barkley Rosser

    The Ukrainian ambassador has just asked the Russian ambassador to go out and call Putin to stop the war. He declared that if the ambassador refuses to do that, then Russia should be removed from the Security Council. That certainly looks like a reasonable demand.

    Reporter in Kyiv now says that somebody in Ukrainian government says that there have been missile strikes on Kyiv, despite no sirens going off. This is just bad all the way around.

  25. Steven Kopits

    Is Taiwan Next?
    https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/vladimir-putin-ukraine-taiwan/622907/

    You understand the failure of deterrence here. This why the US should have started the Ukraine war with a single nuke dropped in the Ukrainian (but not Russian) border zone as the Russians enter. That is in fact NATO traditional defense strategy. It would also allow Putin to make an assessment of what he wants to trade with nukes. Kyiv for Donbas and Sebastopol? Well, that’s a serious question for a serious war. We should make Putin ask it.

    Now, the Chinese have to be thinking this: “Biden won’t even act in a situation of critical importance to Europe against an opponent with one-sixth of the population and 1/25th the GDP of NATO when this same NATO has bases on land literally adjacent to the war zone with allies extending to the Atlantic Ocean. If Biden is so easily intimidated, why would he then act in the case of Taiwan against an opponent of comparable GDP, four times the population, with a massive geographic advantage and only one meaningful US ally — Japan — farther from Taiwan than China?”

    I don’t have a good counter to that, save to say that we need to stand and fight in Ukraine and open with a tactical nuke if we want to deter China. Otherwise, I think Beijing’s logic is sound, albeit one leading to nuclear war if Biden changes his mind.

  26. Bruce Hall

    Biden: if you attack Ukraine, we’re going to fine you.

    Yeah, that’s working. Putin understood that Biden is a cut and run politician who thinks “standing up to” a bully means calling him a bully. The West had two choices after it refused to negotiate to create a neutral Ukraine that would not be considered for inclusion to NATO:
    1) actively reinforce Ukraine with troops and weapon systems and risk direct conflict
    2) capitulate and draw the next red line in the sand

    Economic sanctions have been and still are meaningless in the equation of aggression and conflict. So, the next question is how will the U.S. and its Pacific allies react to China overrunning Taiwan? More meaningless sanctions?
    https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/30/us-sanctions-reliance-results/

    1. pgl

      Another Trump fanboy bravely playing video games as he hides in his basement.

      “actively reinforce Ukraine with troops and weapon systems”. We have lying little idiot.

    1. pgl

      Because he lies on the hope that morons like you will fall for his lies. Yes Putin would have your lunch before breakfast.

    2. Barkley Rosser

      Steven,

      Putin has become seriously delusional. He also apparently thought his troops would be welcomed as “liberators” when they entered Uktaine. He somehow falsely thinks there was no Ukrainian state prior to Lenin establishing the Ukrainian SSR. I could go on at length on this and have warned for some time about his isolation and apparently increasing disconnect from reality, which is a scary thing, because he indeed might become tempted to fire off a nuclear weapon at some point as things get worse and worse for him. After all, here he was out to stop NATO from “moving eastward,” and now Sweden and Finland are set to join it, leaving him frothing at the mouth. He was once smart. Now he is a raving idiot.

  27. Bruce Hall

    Biden is showing the Russians that he is really, really tough and he is going to punish them severely.
    https://finance.yahoo.com

    But don’t worry, our military is focused on really important social issues, so all is good. They are striking fear into our adversaries.

    1. pgl

      Oh boohoo – big brave Brucie had a temporary hit to his stock portfolio. And he has to pay a wee bit more for gasoline.

      You talk tough but you are nothing more than a self centered little coward.

      I hear Trump is inviting Putin to a Maro Lago celebration of this invasion and you will be receiving a invitation in the mail. enjoy your fellow traitors.

    1. pgl

      Read further Trump fanboy. Big brave Ted Cruz is discussing how to profit from Putin’s invasion. Come on Brucie – you too can profit from their treason. Go for it.

  28. Bruce Hall

    An interesting article in The Hill:

    “China’s foreign ministry on Wednesday said Taiwan is “not Ukraine” and has always been a part of China amid Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s calls to ramp up vigilance on military activities in response to the crisis in Ukraine.

    Foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying dismissed the concerns of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who said there might be worldwide consequences, including for Taiwan, if Western nations failed to support Ukraine’s independence, according to Reuters.

    “Taiwan is not Ukraine,” Hua said while speaking in Beijing. “Taiwan has always been an inalienable part of China. This is an indisputable legal and historical fact.”

    Hua noted that the situation with Taiwan is the result of the country’s civil war in the mid-20th century but that China’s integrity should have never been compromised and has never been compromised.

    In 1949, the government of the Republic of China fled to Taiwan to escape communist forces, who formed the People’s Republic of China the same year.

    However, Taiwan has vehemently opposed China’s claims over the island, with Tsai noting that it is still the self-governing Republic of China, according to Reuters.

    The Taiwanese president told her working group on the Russia-Ukraine crisis established by her National Security Council that all security and military units “must raise their surveillance and early warning of military developments around the Taiwan Strait,” according to the news service.

    Tsai noted that Taiwan and Ukraine are fundamentally different in various ways, including geography and internal supply chains.

    “But in the face of foreign forces intending to manipulate the situation in Ukraine and affect the morale of Taiwanese society, all government units must strengthen the prevention of cognitive warfare launched by foreign forces and local collaborators,” she said, according to Reuters.

    Tsai expressed “empathy” for Ukraine’s situation because of Taiwan’s own military threat, Reuters noted. While the statement did not specifically refer to mainland China by name, it is the most significant military threat the East Asian island faces. “

    If you think Ukraine is causing economic problems, just wait until China moves on Taiwan. And that chip shortage. Remember where we get most of our high-end chips.

    https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/taiwan-reports-nine-chinese-aircraft-its-air-defence-zone-2022-02-24/

    1. pgl

      Earth to the dumbest troll ever. China has taken this position for over 70 years. BTW – Putin will soon have a semiconductor chip shortage. Since you are the Just In Time inventory management master for this sector, I’m sure Putin will pay you for all of your chips. Demand payment in dollars as the ruble is devaluing fast. But you knew that as traitors are always a step ahead!

  29. pgl

    https://news.yahoo.com/trump-praised-putins-justification-invade-212609082.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    The picture in this story was foretelling. Trump walking behind Putin. After all Putin was the boss and Trump was his pet poodle. The news here has been well discussed – Trump applauded Putin’s invading Ukraine. Trump’s advice to President Biden is to ignore the war hawks saving American forces for an invasion of Mexico.

    This is the clown that Chicken Hawks like Bruce Hall and Princeton Steve praise. Given their devotion to this treasonous clown makes everyone of their many long winded rants as hollow as it gets.

  30. pgl

    https://news.yahoo.com/why-russia-invading-ukraine-could-135427967.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

    Putin is such a loud mouth bully but ultimately a coward. Yes Russia is going to a lot of damage to Ukraine – a much smaller nation. But the Ukrainian army is already sending a lot of Russians back home dead. And big bad Putin tells the rest of the world to stay out or he will attack them too. REALLY? Most of his forces are already in Ukraine in the fight of their lives.

    Putin thinks he can intimidate NATO? Come on – make my day. I bet St. Petersburg right now is wide open for invasion. Not that I would want such a beautiful city harmed. But Kiev is also a beautiful city which is about to be leveled. The only hope here is that Russia takes such a bloody beating that the people turn on this war criminal and kick him out of their nation. I’m sure he would be welcomed at Maro Lago.

  31. Anonymous

    Is this an appropriate thread to revisit the mass of peak oiler-ish posts/papers/talks by James Hamilton, from 05-15? It is (as Mav told Goose about the Mirimar O-club regarding WED, ladies night) a target rich environment. OK, Professor BR?

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