In the FT today:
Kamin & Sobel: “Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance”
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Confidence Tanks
A one standard deviation drop is no small thing. Actual at 85.4 vs. 90.5 Bloomberg consensus, down from upwardly revised 94.2.
Donald Trump Is Unworried about the Dollar’s Value
According to Bloomerg. No doubt the USD is losing in value in nominal terms against a basket of currencies as well gold, since the weekend.
Chinn-Ito Financial Openness Index Updated to 2023!
Just published, Chinn-Ito index, available here. Normalized to [0,1], with 1 being most open, here’s the world.
Uncertainty Drivers: Tariffs on Canada or Government Shutdown?
Economic Policy Uncertainty spikes on Sunday.
“Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs on Canada If It Does China Deal”
That’s a title of a Bloomberg article, coming right after the Trump (temporary?) retreat on Greenland related tariffs. Economic Policy Uncertainty is likely to stay elevated for a while.
What Is Q3 Economic Output? Where Are We Going in Q4? And Other Known Unknowns
Typical reporting of overall economic output is based on the expenditure approach — that is measuring spending on final goods and services. There are however three approaches — the income and value added in addition to expenditure — which up to depreciation should be equivalent. What do the expenditure and income approaches indicate?
Guest Contribution: “The New Political Economy of U.S. Trade”
Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Professor of International and Public Affairs and Political Science at Columbia University.
The Bond Market Is (So Far) Unconvinced
Trump takes military action off the table (for the nonce):