The $20 billion swap announced by Bessent (not on US Treasury website as far as I can tell) is funded out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund. As far as I can tell, there’s no conditionality. This transaction is qualitatively different from Fed swap lines with for instand ECB and BoE wherein the Fed had access to their currencies.
COFER data is out for Q2. With estimated gold held by the central banks, we have this picture of reserve composition.
Out today:
When the economy is growing in a steady manner, a missed release is not a problem. But when the economy is on a potential tipping point, the preliminary release and revisions take on a heighted importance. Example: September 2008 net job gains:
Here’re key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee, with indications of measures already missed (purple squares) and will be missed in a 34 day shutdown (and likely delayed even if a shorter shutdown occurs) (purple dashed squares).
An assessment of how current Administration polices regarding immigration and removals are affecting the agricultural sector (October 2):
Effective September 30th, some 105000 Federal workers who had signed up for the Deferred Resignation Program will be officially unemployed. The usual reference (correction per Ben Zipperer) period for counting employment, either in the CES or the CPS, is in the week including the 12th of the month — that is, this week; <I>the week for interviewing is the week including the 19th</I> (correction). If you think there’s only going to be a mild increase in private employment in October, coming after that in September (-17K from ADP, -77 to BLS from my nowcast), then the 100K drop will look meaningfully “bad”.
November futures for soybeans collapse upon Trump’s announcement:
Kalshi has the shutdown lasting 29.4 days as of now, was up to 31.1 days earlier.