From StatCan today, employment reverses May decline, rises 18.2K vs 11.2K Bloomberg consensus. The employment sitrep as of today’s release:
Canadian Employment Upside Surprise
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Uncertainty and Risk during Trump 2.0
If you thought the US-Iran war was effectively over, if you thought USMCA was safe, if you thought no more trade surprises, well think again:
Summer 2026 Rollercoaster: Gasoline Price Edition
Gasbuddy on current gasoline prices:
Signal or Noise: Imports of Computers, Related Goods and Semiconductors
From BEA:
US Recession Risk Dashboard
From Francesco Furno and Domenico Giannone, continuously updated risk assessment, at https://recessionrisk.com/ (discussed previously in this post).
Canadian Tory Recession Call: Beware the Revisions!
From today’s Daily Commercial News,
“A recession has been often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and so on that definition, Canada is in a recession,” [Michael] Chong said.
US Dollar Reserves, US-Iran War +1 Month
From IMF’s COFER:
Visualizing Trump’s Planned EEOB
For those who once worked there:
Current Betting on Re-Opening by 9/1
As of 12:30PM CT on Kalshi:
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025: