As of today’s close:
The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
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How Big of a Cost-Push Shock? WTI at $91.38 in March
It’s true that the real price of oil is lower than in past episodes of oil price jumps. Moreover oil consumption constitutes a smaller share of US GDP than in previous episodes of oil price jumps. However, if one wants to discuss “shocks”, in part one would want the surprise or non-predictable component of oil price use. Approximately (I think for oil), that’s the change in the oil share, as shown below.
Price Levels and Implications of the PPI Release
Headline, Core PPI above Bloomberg consensus (1.4% vs. 0.5% m/m; 1.0% vs. 0.3% m/m).
Grocery Prices (and Forecasts)
As of the April 2026 CPI release:
Price Levels Relative to January 2025
Everyday prices outstripping measured CPI and subindices:
Real Hourly Wages for April
Using today’s CPI release:
Anticipating Real Hourly Wages for April
CPI deflated and using AIER “Everyday Price Index”:
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Real Gasoline Prices Are (Relatively) Low; Gas Prices Are Rising Sharply
Both can, and are, true:
Hassett: GDP Growth “north of four, north of five, north of even six [percent]”
From FoxNews:
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Odds: Down Again
From Kalshi, 7:45pm CT: