Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow.
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May
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Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
Parsing the Retail Sales Release
Sales rise, overall hits consensus. However, gasoline store sales constitute majority of increase.
“…Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States all combined.”
Source: Daily Beast.
The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
As of today’s close:
How Big of a Cost-Push Shock? WTI at $91.38 in March
It’s true that the real price of oil is lower than in past episodes of oil price jumps. Moreover oil consumption constitutes a smaller share of US GDP than in previous episodes of oil price jumps. However, if one wants to discuss “shocks”, in part one would want the surprise or non-predictable component of oil price use. Approximately (I think for oil), that’s the change in the oil share, as shown below.
Price Levels and Implications of the PPI Release
Headline, Core PPI above Bloomberg consensus (1.4% vs. 0.5% m/m; 1.0% vs. 0.3% m/m).
Grocery Prices (and Forecasts)
As of the April 2026 CPI release:
Price Levels Relative to January 2025
Everyday prices outstripping measured CPI and subindices:
Real Hourly Wages for April
Using today’s CPI release: