From today’s Daily Commercial News,
“A recession has been often defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, and so on that definition, Canada is in a recession,” [Michael] Chong said.
From IMF’s COFER:
For those who once worked there:
As of 12:30PM CT on Kalshi:
Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025:
Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.
From CoRev comment on global climate change as measured by temperatures:
I have no particular expertise in this subject, aside from being around during the dot-com boom (and being a contributor to ERP 2001). Once dot-com related equity prices declined, investment dried up. Bloomberg’s Mag-7 index is now 12.2% below the May 29 peak.
Madison’s had a heat advisory in effect for days — like most of the eastern portion of the US. This reminded me of Rick Stryker’s 2014 admonition to dismiss climate change.
Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February.