Price Indices and Expectations of the Price Level

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Will people think things will get back to normal soon, per NEC Chair Hassett (fm ABC News)?

“Well, look, in the end, people look at their wallets and they decide how to vote, and if they look at their wallets and look at how much money they have after the increase in prices, they’re going to find that they have a lot more money.”

Hassett did acknowledge high energy prices are causing a pinch but said he was hopeful that would subside soon.

“That’s extremely frustrating, and it’s something that we’re working on doing lots of different things to minimize the disruption, and hopefully again the problem of the Gulf will be over soon, and then things will go back to normal.”

I’m dubious. Expectations incorporated into a graph of the price level (in logs):

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Where to Find Business Cycle Chronologies for Countries

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Using (roughly) the Burns-Mitchell-NBER approach. Incomplete listing, focused on those updated over time, by agencies, firms, or other organizations. (update of the post). This list seems relevant as Canada records two consecutive quarters of negative growth, French Q1 growth is revised to a small negative, and one Q2 nowcast for Euro Area is negative as of today. ECRI, a common source for business cycle chronologies, has not to my knowledge declared a turning point since the end of the pandemic-related recessions.

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