From USNI:
Naval Deployment As of 5/4 … to What End?
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Four Measures of Aggregate Economic Activity
Output is still rising smartly according to one index (2.1% m/m annualized):
Why Focus on Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers?
Preliminary GDP rose 2% SAAR after 0.5% in Q4. Final sales to private domestic purchasers — aka “core GDP” — grew 2.5% vs. 1.8% previous. In general, since the pandemic, core GDP has been less volatile than GDP.
Consumer Vibes Two Months into the War
Gallup and U.Michigan way down, Conference Board trending sideways.
GDP, Personal Income and other Business Cycle Indicators as of May Day
GDP grows 2% SAAR in the Q1 advance release (see Jim’s discussion here). Real personal income ex-transfers is flat.
A worried Econ Watcher
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 2% annual rate in the first quarter. That is below the historical average growth of 3.1% and also below some analysts’ expectations for the Q1 numbers. The new BEA report also revised down the estimate of the Q4 annual growth rate. The latter was originally reported to have been 1.4% but is now estimated to have only been 0.5%.
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The Last Month’s June Brent and Kalshi Hormuz Re-opening Odds
As of 2pm CT today:
Brent Front Month above $111
Gas at all time high, according to Gasbuddy, as of today:
Hormuz Re-opening Odds and Brent June Futures
From data 10 min ago:
Where Will Brent Futures Open Today?
My guess, using Kalshi and EPU, is for $111 yesterday (assuming EPU is the same as yesterday):