Bank of Finland’s BOFIT concludes:
China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reports fourth-quarter growth of the Chinese economy slowed to 4.5 % y-o-y. Third-quarter GDP growth last year was still 4.8 % and first-half growth exceeded 5 %. The NBS data also indicate that consumption demand accounted for 2.4 percentage points of 4Q GDP growth, while net exports contributed 1.4 percentage points and investment demand 0.7 percentage point. GDP growth for all of 2025 (5.0 %) unremarkably matched the official “about 5 %” target announced at the National People’s Congress last spring.
BOFIT’s alternative GDP calculation suggests that economic growth for all of 2025 was roughly 1 percentage point below the official figure. The alternative GDP growth estimate for the fourth quarter was 3.3 %. Industrial output growth accelerated slightly in December from previous months to over 5 % y-o-y. For all of 2025, industrial output rose by roughly 6 % y-o-y. Foreign trade, which is closely linked to industrial output, remained strong throughout the year. Net exports clearly supported economic growth for the entire year.