From EJ Antoni on X today:
Not even hiding it anymore – since when is a 119k increase just “edging up”? And since when is a 193k increase “little change”? They mentioned Apr b/c that’s when Trump announced tariffs; whether you’re for or against Trump’s trade policies, this is obviously a biased narrative:
From the latest release:
Incorporating employment (including implied benchmark NFP):
Tomorrow, we get results for September employment. Bloomberg consensus is for +55K, compared to +42K at the originally scheduled release date (and +22K in August). Here are key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee.
As of today’s close:
In commenting on my post yesterday on house affordability, Bruce Hall brings my attention to this Supermoney article by Andrew Latham, which states:
…the price per square foot has remained pretty stable [from 1978?] right until 2020. Look at the price per square foot (inflation-adjusted) for new homes in the graph below.
To quote:
We read much about how housing is now “unaffordable”, but is that true?
We bought a 2300 sf home in 1979 with a 10.5% mortgage interest rate (a step up from our 1200 sf starter home). It was a bit of a strain, but our second child was on the way so we bit the bullet. Now it seems that this generation whines about housing being unaffordable and wants the government to “do something” about it.
Really, a 50 bps drop in the Fed funds rate in December? What does a Taylor rule say?
The AIER’s Everyday Price Index vs. 2024 stochastic trend, and CPI:
That’s Jason Miller, supply chain expert at MSU, noting 40% tariff to remain on Brazilian coffee (and other) exports to the United States, according to ABCNews.
