From the opinion pages of the WSJ:
Cliff Winston: Let Carmakers and Airlines Be “Free to Compete”
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Musings on the Path of Real Retail Sales ex-Auto, Gasoline
Down from February, both real and nominal:
Why Shouldn’t Yields Rise?
Friday’s jump in 10 year Treasury yields (10 bps), and the 30 year yield nearing 5% alarmed markets. But why?
Debt and the debt trajectory are up. Fed Chair Designate Warsh wants to shrink the Fed balance sheet, even as Trump continues his assault on Fed independence. And don’t expect the foreign sector to rush in to help…
Gasoline Implications of a Higher EV Fleet Share
One of the reasons why the impact of higher gasoline prices might be muted relative to the past is the increased fuel efficiency of US autos, in small part due to a higher share of electric vehicles and hybrid vehicles in the US fleet. It could’ve been larger.
Trump in China: 磕頭?
Lots of gushing praise by President Trump of President Xi. Not so much from Xi. I’d characterize this as anything but tough talk from the US side. Continue reading
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%.
NY Fed, SoFIE Predicted April Y/Y Inflation
although they over-estimated in 2023-24.
Ten Year Nominal and Real Yields Jump
As of close today, nominal yields are up 0.62%, real up 0.38% since the beginning of the war.
A “New Normal” in Consumer Gloominess?
We’ve had a record low in the U.Michigan consumer sentiment in May (prel.). Given real aggregate output measures are rising smartly (see this post), why is sentiment so low? Has there been a structural break?
Industrial and Manufacturing Production Up: The Divergence between Employment and Output Continues
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today: