Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate.
What did we think was happening back then, compared to what we know now?
Rise in 10 year rates is mostly showing up in real rates, as proxied by TIPS.
As share of total diesel+heating oil+gasoline consumption volume (a somewhat strange measure to me, but probably gets the idea across), from Nate Silver:
As of September 11.
Here are several measures of manufacturing employment. ADP suggests continued deterioration, while QCEW (through March) fell as official employment rose.
From the High Road Strategy Center, an annual report:
Data through yesterday:
According to AAA, regular gasoline is up 3.8% relative to a week ago, diesel up 4.5%.
Motio Research‘s measure is down 1.2% relative to May, but flat relative to July.