If one uses a simple random walk with drift estimate over the 2022Q1-2025Q3 period, the answer is yes. However, given the Administration’s internment and removals program, the current projection of population suggests not.
Jet fuel price, from EIA via FRED:
The President’s FY2027 budget was released yesterday, some two months late.
ADP down while BLS up. Aggregate hours down.
BLS and ADP data are among the first measurements of economic activity in March, after the war’s start.
From Atlanta Fed and Goldman Sachs, today:
Monthly GDP, retail sales, ADP employment, freight services index…
Cleveland Fed CPI nowcast indicates 0.84% m/m increase in March, based on weekly gasoline and daily oil prices.
Well, it’s a pretty integrated world market for oil…up to date data for front month futures:
The Conference Board’s Confidence Index at 91.8, up from downwardly revised 91.0 in February, beating Bloomberg consensus of 88.