Implications from the Atlanta Fed Taylor Rule utility default settings:
Where Should We Be, Taylor Rule Wise?
Leave a reply
Military/Econ SitRep and Administration Priorities
Reduced traffic through Straits of Hormuz, Bab al Mandeb, front month Brent futures at $103 with dated European Brent having reached a high of $130, US diesel at record high, and a threat of expanding Mideast conflict as US stockpiles of precision munitions and interceptors depleted. With a PARTIAL cost reckoning of Iran war costs at $43 bn, here is today’s priority:
EJ Antoni: “Manufacturing profits soar on Trump reforms: End Iran war to keep boom going”
That’s EJ Antoni, Chief Economist of Heritage, writing three days ago in the Washington Times:
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial, Manufacturing Production under Consensus
IP flat, below +0.3% m/m Bloomberg consensus, manufacturing -0.3% below +0.3%. Capacity utilization drops.
NYT: “The World Economy Is Becoming Wary of the U.S.”
From NYT:
GDPNow Goes Gangbusters
GDPNow as of today is 5.1% q/q AR for Q3:
Betting on the Midterms
From Polymarket today, 3pm CT:
Fed Funds Expected Trajectory, and Other Rates
Here’s the CME’s Fedwatch implied path for the Fed funds rate as of noon CT today:
Brent Spot Surges, vs. Weekly Diesel and Other Derivatives
Brent spot FOB through yesterday:
Real Retail Sales in August
Nominal sales growth at 1.2% m/m exceeded consensus at 0.8%, while same store sales at 1.4% also exceeded consensus at 0.4%. However, real sales — excluding gasoline station sales — while rising, were just below June levels.