The graph says it all.
Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
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Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12.
Accelerating Deterioration in Manufacturing Employment, Post-“Liberation Day”
ADP and BLS CES and QCEW data confirm:
The Average Effective Tariff Rate thru October
The actual — as opposed to announced — rate has only recently exceeded 12% (source: Paweł Skrzypczyński). Expect plenty of cost increases in 2026:
Business Cycle Indicators: Employment Growth Slows
With the December release, we have the following picture of key indicators followed by the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Private NFP Change below Consensus, Previous Revisions Change Trajectory
Change in private NFP +37K < +64K Bloomberg consensus, previous months revised down 121K.
“11th Annual West Coast Workshop in International Finance”
Here’s the call for papers — from my experience, a great event for exchanging ideas and findings about international finance/open economy macro, this year taking place on April 10th.
ADP Implied Private NFP, Philly Fed Early Benchmark, etc.
In general, not good news. Using the relationship in (log) first differences implies slight gain in private NFP:
ADP Private NFP Employment below Consensus, Large Firm Flat, Mfg Down
Briefly:
Nowcasting Core GDP
Further deceleration.