While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some downside risks.
WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDP
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WSJ Economic Survey: The GDP Trajectory
Compared against CBO, GS tracking:
Economic Consequences of IEEPA Tariff Strikedown
In Trump 2.0, most tariffs were imposed under IEEPA. With the Supreme Court perceived to be on the verge of ruling the tariffs unconstitutional, it’s of interest to see what the implications would be.
Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
From X today:
Groceries Rose 9% m/m (annualized) in December
Reported hits the September USDA Economic Research Service forecast. Figure 1 displays the food-at-home component of the CPI, along with ERS forecasts:
Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
Responses to DoJ probe: An event study.
Gianluca Benigno: “Tariffs as National Security Tools”
“Talking Heads Are Missing Labor Market Strength”: Heritage Chief Economist
Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
GDPNow for Q4 at 5.1% is considerably higher than Goldman Sachs at 3.1%, and St. Louis Fed at essentially zero.
We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition
From Bloomberg: