Using the HP filter applied to U.Michigan Sentiment, consumers don’t seem too gloomy relative to “average”. But they do seem gloomy relative to observed unemployment and inflation rates.
Detrended Sentiment
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Inflation Expectations Short and Long: Up
From today’s U.Mich release, final 1 yr revised up from 4.5% to 4.8%, and 5 yr revised up from 3.4% to 3.9% (!).
U.Mich Sentiment, Gallup Confidence Plunge
May Michigan Sentiment downwardly revised from preliminary, to a record low.
Why the February CBO Baseline Debt Will Be Off
In a previous post, I noted that the February CBO projection of debt would likely be an underestimate, and perhaps increasingly so over time, suggesting upward pressure on rates.
“From Bust to Boom: Stock Market Participation and the Housing Boom”
That’s the title of a paper by Yanshuo Chen, (PhD, UCSC):
Who Holds Federal Debt As of March 30
Let’s hope foreign non-official sector wants to hold on to US government debt.
Where Should the 10 Year Treasury Rate Be?
Debt issuance is rising, foreign official holdings of Treasurys are falling, the Fed is reducing holdings, and expected inflation is rising. How well do we predict rates?
The Change in 10 Year Yields: Up, Up and Away
Treasurys and TIPS, 70 and 46 bps respectively.
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Adventures in Conditional Forecasting
CEA Chair (Acting) Pierre Yared (NYT):
Mortgage Rates and Fuel Costs SitRep
Over the past year, as of data available today: