Inflation Adjusted Wages, through July
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Estimated FY2026 Budget Deficit
From CBO.
Cost of Living Measures
Including Everyday Price Index™. Nowcast suggests accelerating inflation in m/m August CPI:
Estimates of Nonfarm Payroll Employment
CES estimates are for lackluster growth, while the trend in CPS measure is … somewhat worrying.
Private NFP Growth Deceleration
+30K < +78K Bloomberg consensus.
Lewis-Mertens-Stock WEI Decelerates
Based on weekly releases, through 8/1.
Private NFP from ADP
+44K vs. +68K per Bloomberg consensus.
Oil Slumps on Expectations that Trump Surrenders: And That’s a Good Thing (Relatively Speaking)
That’s the only way to think about it: We go from free navigation on the Strait of Hormuz on February 27 to de facto Iranian control on inbound shipping.
Major Shocks, Major Real Interest Rate Increases
Big jumps in TIPS after “Liberation Day” and after the US-Iran war’s start.
Who’s a Socialist (or Economic Fascist)?
I hear the term “socialist” bandied about a lot. As somebody who took a whole semester on the topic (titled, simply “Socialism”, by the late Adam Ulam), I would like to forward a very simple economic definition: