Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
Instantaneous PCE Core Inflation at 2.6%
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Confidence Down in November, (preliminary) Sentiment (Slightly) Up in December
U.Mich on December, Gallup on November:
Business Cycle Indicators: Series at or Below Prior Peak
With September personal income and spending, we have new insights into whether we’re close or after the business cycle peak.
Deceleration in Nowcasted Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, GDP
National Security Tariffs (Sec 232) on Toilet Paper?
Not literally, but on wood pulp used for TP? Implicitly, SecTreas Bessent is suggesting that if the IEEPA tariffs are struck down by the Supreme Court.
“We can recreate the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the—I think they’re called 122s,” he said, referring to three separate statutory authorities governing trade actions.
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Going Down
Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September).
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives
November ADP data allows us to guesstimate nonfarm payroll employment, while the Fed’s data for industrial and manufacturing production in September gives us more of a reading on September. First, key indicators followed by te NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
ADP Downside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K.
“Are there no workhouses?” 2025 Edition
Not quite in the spirit of the season, EJ Antoni on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP):
“…for many of these people, [poverty]’s a choice!”
Peer Reviewed Articles of Kevin Hassett on Monetary Policy
Following up on this post, what are the academic works of Kevin Hassett on monetary policy?