Today, we’re fortunate to have a guest contribution by Jeffry Frieden, Professor of International and Public Affairs and Political Science at Columbia University.
Guest Contribution: “The New Political Economy of U.S. Trade”
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The Bond Market Is (So Far) Unconvinced
Trump takes military action off the table (for the nonce):
For Some, a Human Life Has Zero Value, but Corporation “Lives” Have Positive Values
“…[last month]’s [production] print still came in negative M/M – manufacturing is in recession:
Here’s a picture:
Employment Growth Has Flatlined (If We’re Optimistic)
Official vs. Implied Preliminary, Powell conjecture to preliminary, Early Benchmark, CPS adjusted to NFP concept, and Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
How Fast Can Trump Destroy US Exorbitant Privilege?
Treasury 10 year and VIX, as of 4pm CT today:
WSJ Economic Survey: Downside Risk in GDP
While the mean forecast is for around 2.2% growth in 2026 (see this post), the trimmed 20% band suggests some downside risks.
WSJ Economic Survey: The GDP Trajectory
Compared against CBO, GS tracking:
Economic Consequences of IEEPA Tariff Strikedown
In Trump 2.0, most tariffs were imposed under IEEPA. With the Supreme Court perceived to be on the verge of ruling the tariffs unconstitutional, it’s of interest to see what the implications would be.
Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
From X today: