Here’re quarterly and monthly GDP, normalized to October 2025:
Canadian GDP, NFP Recovers
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The AI Boom: Keep a Watch on (Computer) Imports
Pawel Skrzypczinski admonishes us, and correctly so. Computer, peripheral and part imports surging for now. In 2000, imports peaked a quarter efore investment did.
CoRev on Global Climate Change: Might As Well “Lie Back and Enjoy It”
From CoRev comment on global climate change as measured by temperatures:
Imagine: AI Investment Spending Following Dot-Com Boom?
I have no particular expertise in this subject, aside from being around during the dot-com boom (and being a contributor to ERP 2001). Once dot-com related equity prices declined, investment dried up. Bloomberg’s Mag-7 index is now 12.2% below the May 29 peak.
Calling Rick Stryker (and all other Global Climate Change Skeptics of Yore)
Madison’s had a heat advisory in effect for days — like most of the eastern portion of the US. This reminded me of Rick Stryker’s 2014 admonition to dismiss climate change.
Real Wages since February Have Not Kept Up with Inflation
Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February.
Business Cycle Indicators – Key NBER and Alternatives
NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward.
Conference Board Index Still in Gloomy Range
Confidence rises to 91.2, but below consensus (94.4), from downwardly revised level. Gallup also rises.
Diesel 22.5% above Pre-War
Oil (Brent) prices down, and so too gasoline and diesel. But not back to pre-War.
Bubbles or Regime-Switching in Gold and Bitcoin?
I don’t have the answer, but the two series do make quite a picture (all in logs since five years ago):