(This is an example for my “financial system” course.) When the outcome differs from expectations in a big way, expect big asset moves.
“News” Illustrated: Brazilian Election
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Naval Deployment as of 10/26: Convergence near Iran in November?
(Per open sources) from USNI:
The Canadian Term Spread and the Case of the Missing 2024 Recession
The term spread is positive in Canada through September. But the term spread signaled recession for 2024 (which some had predicted). What can we take from this, regarding recession probabilities?
PCE Inflation in September
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus:
Motio September Median Real Household Income: Slight Recovery
EconVitals: Key Macro Indicators Gathered
This is the new “go to” website, from Jason Furman (former Chair, CEA; professor at Kennedy School, nonresident fellow at PIIE):
Front Month Brent Futures near 2022 Peak Level
Over $116/bbl.
Forward Price Earnings Ratios
Looking pretty good — although one needs to wonder about analysts’ estimates of forward earnings…
Real Weekly Earnings Down in Q3
Overall, for HS graduates:
Jet Fuel Prices Up
Then, when next you fly; or ship something high value from abroad. From EIA (thru 10/9):