Given nominal wage growth in the private sector for production and nonsuperivisory workers, and nowcasted CPI, real wages are lower than in February.
Real Wages since February Have Not Kept Up with Inflation
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Business Cycle Indicators – Key NBER and Alternatives
NFP underwhelms and prior months revised downward, civilian employment and civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept moving downward.
Conference Board Index Still in Gloomy Range
Confidence rises to 91.2, but below consensus (94.4), from downwardly revised level. Gallup also rises.
Diesel 22.5% above Pre-War
Oil (Brent) prices down, and so too gasoline and diesel. But not back to pre-War.
Bubbles or Regime-Switching in Gold and Bitcoin?
I don’t have the answer, but the two series do make quite a picture (all in logs since five years ago):
Alternative Business Cycle Indicators: Coincident, Consensus ADP
Coincident continues to rise through May, while Bloomberg consensus for NFP growth is for +114K, roughly same growth rate as in May:
Brent More Contango-ey
As of NYMEX open:
Rate Cycles (Where Are We Now?)
I’ve been remiss in reporting on this important work by Kristin Forbes, Jongrim Ha and Ayhan Kose, documenting periods of monetary policy tightening ad loosening, and characteristics of those episodes. From the paper:
Brent in Contango
As of yesterday:
Instantaneous PCE Inflation
Nowcasted June inflation will be down — but for core not down much…