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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene: Diesel Rises Again

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From the EIA:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

What the Heck Is “Structural Excess Capacity”?

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The US is going to expand the trade war against a whole slew of countries, using Section 301 charging “structural excess capacity”, caused by government intervention. China is up on the block, according Bloomberg:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

August Consumer Confidence Downside Surprise

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Conference Board indicator registers decline relative to downwardly revised July confidence:

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This entry was posted on August 25, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Portfolio Balance vs. Loanable Funds: A Teaching Note

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Is the real interest rate set by the demand vs. supply of all savings, private and public? Or is it set by the demand for money vs. bonds emanating from liquidity preference and (outside) wealth demand? Got to answer this in anticipation of teaching this Fall semester.

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025

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As we lumber into an expanded trade war with Canada:

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Paper (Diaper) Tiger? “Trump Vows to Double Tariffs on Canadian Autos, Escalating Fight”

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Who could’a thunk it? From Bloomberg:

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This entry was posted on August 24, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Guest Contribution: “When Does Monetary Tightening Deflate a Stock-Market Bubble?”

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Today, we are pleased to present a guest contribution written by Jamel Saadaoui (Université Paris 8-Vincennes).   


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This entry was posted on August 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Wisconsin GOP Gubernatorial Candidate Tiffany on US Trade Policy

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From the official website, the statement on trade policy:

“[…] “

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This entry was posted on August 23, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Trade War with Canada: Wisconsin Awaits Retaliation

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Anybody familiar with the gravity model of trade would be unsurprised that Wisconsin (exports) a lot to Canada.

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Waiting for the Troika Mid-Session Review Forecast

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July 15 is the due date, but is often missed. So looking back in May, NEC Chair Hassett forecast 5% growth in 2027, on top of rapid 2026 growth forecasted by the Administration. How are things looking with two more quarters of reported growth?

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This entry was posted on August 22, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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  • James Hamilton
  • Menzie Chinn

Recent Posts

  • Gasoline, Diesel, Kerosene: Diesel Rises Again
  • What the Heck Is “Structural Excess Capacity”?
  • August Consumer Confidence Downside Surprise
  • Portfolio Balance vs. Loanable Funds: A Teaching Note
  • Wisconsin Goods Exports by Destination, 2025

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Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 7.0 (describes  2026:Q1)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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