CPI – headline vs. CPI for wage earners and clerical workers:
Real Median Usual Weekly Earnings: When the Deflator Matters
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Section 338 and Policy Uncertainty
Donald Trump forces me to learn another obscure trade remedy (from the 1930’s). I’m pretty certain this will not achieve any economic goals, and yet sustain economic and trade policy uncertainty.
Oil vs. Gasoline and Diesel Prices
From EIA today:
Escalation Possibilities
September Brent Breaks $90, RBOB Gasoline near Peak
As of 6:30pm CT:
Noise?
The timing seems off to me, as on apparent new news within the last hour (as of 4pm CT)…
Eyes on Refined Product Prices
Oil futures jumped on Friday, presumably will again today — but with refining capacity down, the number(s) to watch might be for refined products (given damage to refineries especially in Russia). Here’s Brent futures (black line) vs NY Harbor RBOB gasoline (brown line), for September:
EPU Jumps
As expectations of SoH reopening decline.
AI Capex and Accounting for US GDP Growth
New estimates from Soto, Thieu and Allen:
Crashing Expectations (for Hormuz Reopening by 9/1): 6%
Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1: