Manufacturing (gross) production up (until September).
Manufacturing Employment, Hours Going Down
Leave a reply
Business Cycle Indicators: Industrial Production, Implied Employment, Alternatives
November ADP data allows us to guesstimate nonfarm payroll employment, while the Fed’s data for industrial and manufacturing production in September gives us more of a reading on September. First, key indicators followed by te NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee (BCDC):
ADP Downside Surprise
ADP private nonfarm payroll (NFP) employment down -32K vs. +5K Bloomberg consensus. Mfg employment down 6K.
“Are there no workhouses?” 2025 Edition
Not quite in the spirit of the season, EJ Antoni on the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP):
“…for many of these people, [poverty]’s a choice!”
Peer Reviewed Articles of Kevin Hassett on Monetary Policy
Following up on this post, what are the academic works of Kevin Hassett on monetary policy?
Consensus vs. ARIMA(1,1,1): ADP Private Nonfarm Payroll
Bloomberg consensus is +7K for ADP release.
Recession with Decreasing Employment and Increasing GDP?
Employment seems to be growing very slowly, if not shrinking, while output (measured with lots of noise) seems to be rising, into Q3. Would NBER ever determine a recession occurred when GDP was rising?
US Naval Deployment, December 1, 2025
From USNI:
Guest Contribution: “How will unsustainable US debt end?”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.* A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
Alles ist verloren…
一切都結束了, 所有都失去咗 or whatever language you want to put it in. Bloomberg: “Trump Says He Has Made His Choice to Lead the Federal Reserve”. As of 8pm CT today: