Back at the end of 2024, EJ Antoni was citing the Primerica Household Budget Index as indicator of consumer conditions.
Looking at What Used To Be EJ Antoni’s Favorite Household Finances Indicator
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A Dropoff in Manufacturing Employment?
From the ADP release:
The Cyclically Adjusted Budget Balance
Improving through 2025Q3. But taking out the revenue associated with the illegal IEEPA tariffs, well…
“Ghost Music”, “A Flock Ascending” and “Artist’s Muse”: A Concert of Works by Laura Schwendinger
Join us for an evening of amazing and transcendental music by Laura Schwendinger, Professor of Composition at UW Madison, on September 5, 7:30 at the Hamel Music Hall.
Inflation Nowcasted
Based on Cleveland Fed nowcasts:
Diesel Prices Remain Elevated
From the EIA:
Bloomberg: “Bessent’s Bond Gains Wiped Out as Treasury Yields Jump Again”
The pressure is impacting long-dated bonds around the world, due to the same concerns about the oil-driven inflation shock and government spending. Germany’s 30-year yields touched the highest since 2011, and the equivalent UK rate rose to a level last seen in 1998. Australian peers set a fresh record high in data going back to 2016, while the yield on a Bloomberg index of global sovereign bonds climbed the highest in almost two decades.
Ten Year at 4.79%
On the run, at noon CT:
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Yield Curve Pre- and Post-Buyback
How’s it going? 10 year yields are up relative to Friday. Indeed, after initial progress in lowering long rates, pretty much the entire yield curve is now up.
Seven Graphs for the Financial System
Apropos of nothing except current (financial system) events (Fall teaching), some pictures to elicit thoughts.
- Debt rising fast even at full employment
- Stock market near peak?
- Fed funds rate above Taylor rule implied levels.
- Fed credibility lower under Trump 2.0.
- Stablecoins after GENIUS.
- And (not on the syllabus), dollar reserve currency domination eroded (see Eichengreen in NYT yesterday).