Given positive Q1 GDP growth (albeit with downside surprise of 0.3% vs 0.5% q/q Bloomberg consensus, vs. 0.4% Melbourne Institute nowcast), there’s been a substantial amount of commentary regarding elevated recession risks [1] [2]. I find this surprising as the IMF’s April WEO projected 2% y/y growth for 2026 — of course conditional on a baseline that assumed eventually decreasing oil prices. On June 3, OECD projected 1.9%, while the latest Economist Intelligence Unit forecast is 1.6%. Eyeballing the RBA forecast as of June 2, it seems like their forecast is about 1.3%, still not negative growth.
First, consider GDP: