Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week.
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Business Cycle Indicators: GDP, Personal Income, Mfg & Trade Sales, Consumption
GDP is up as Jim discussed. Consumption flat, personal income ex-transfers down. Nominal consumption and income both below consensus by 0.1% m/m.
U.S. GDP grows more in Q3
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. That is a little above the historical average growth of 3.1% and better than the numbers we’d been seeing over the last three quarters.
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Guest Contribution: “Europe, the US, and China: Comparing Geoeconomic Size”
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for excellent research assistance.
The Taylor Rule and Today’s Dissents
Two voting members of the FOMC dissented in favor of raising rates. Some context for why that stance might make sense, from Jason Furman’s EconVitals Taylor rule utility.
On the Eve of the 2026Q3 Advance GDP Release
GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow…
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update through 10/26/2026
Diesel prices rise again.
Confidence Up, Sentiment (Final) Flat
Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty low, as does Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment.
“News” Illustrated: Brazilian Election
(This is an example for my “financial system” course.) When the outcome differs from expectations in a big way, expect big asset moves.
Naval Deployment as of 10/26: Convergence near Iran in November?
(Per open sources) from USNI: