The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter. That is a little above the historical average growth of 3.1% and better than the numbers we’d been seeing over the last three quarters.
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Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. A shorter version was published in Project Syndicate. Thanks are due Sohaib Nasim for excellent research assistance.
Two voting members of the FOMC dissented in favor of raising rates. Some context for why that stance might make sense, from Jason Furman’s EconVitals Taylor rule utility.
GDP growth nowcasted as solid; nowcasted “core GDP” goes gangbusters. Advance release to be discussed by Jim tomorrow…
Diesel prices rise again.
Headlines (Bloomberg) note increase in Conference Board’s Confidence index, for the first time in four months. However, the index remains pretty low, as does Michigan’s final reading on Sentiment.
(This is an example for my “financial system” course.) When the outcome differs from expectations in a big way, expect big asset moves.
(Per open sources) from USNI:
The term spread is positive in Canada through September. But the term spread signaled recession for 2024 (which some had predicted). What can we take from this, regarding recession probabilities?
Some divergence from Cleveland Fed nowcast vs. Bloomberg consensus: