The Hill reports that the Homeland Security Secretary is:
A Natural Experiment? Markwayne Mullin Helps Out Fledgling Econometricians in Search of a New Dataset
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How Long Can Consumption Continue to Rise Strongly as Income Growth Slows?
Bloomberg consensus for tomorrow’s release of April real consumption is for flat growth.
Kevin Hassett on Survey Sampling and Index Theory: He’s NEC — Not CEA — Chair, but Really?
From Kevin Hassett on Sunday’s Face the Nation:
Update: Grocery Price Outlooks Compared
This Bloomberg article spurred me to update yesterday’s post:
A combination of factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace. In April, they rose by the most in nearly four years, and economists say the impact of the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures into 2027.
ARIMA on Grocery Prices
Food at home prices are outpacing the CPI.
Confidence Upside Surprise on Upwardly Revised April
From Conference Board, May reading of 93.1 vs Bloomberg consensus of 91.9, on an upwardly revised April measure of 93.8 (up from prel. 92.8). Here’s the landscape of sentiment and confidence indicators.
How Glum? Bloomberg Consensus on Conference Board Confidence Index
Deterioration, but not as much as implied by U.Michigan. May number out tomorrow.
The Empirical Content of Money Base Monetarism
Chair Warsh’s focus on the Fed’s balance sheet and inflation can be interpreted in many ways. One way is a money base version of the Quantity Theory.
A Technocratic Question for Fed Chair Warsh
In Chairman Warsh’s acceptance speech yesterday, he stated:
EPU and News Sentiment Since the War
For EPU through yesterday, news sentiment through 5/18.