Unsurprisingly, the former leads the latter, but the lag is (highly) variable.
Corporate Profit Peaks and Business Cycle Peaks
1 Reply
2025Q3 4.3% q/q AR Growth in Context
GDP growth of 4.3% far exceeded the 3.3% consensus forecast. However, as a survivor of the 2001 “is it or not” recession debate*, I think it useful to consider the revisions that occur to GDP growth. Here’s a picture of levels of GDP for 2001, according to different vintages.
EJ Antoni: “The truth about the Heritage Foundation’s economic principles”
EJ Antoni writes a letter to WaPo editors:
“that the Heritage Foundation has become a protectionist bivouac. Au contraire, Heritage has been, is, and will continue to be a bastion of free-market conservatism.”
A Holiday Memo: NBER BCDC and Alternative Indicators
With a surprising outcome in GDP [Hamilton/Econbrowser] [Chinn/Econbrowser], recall that other indicators are relevant, particularly given the record of GDP revisions over time.
More on the GDP Release: Compare against “Core GDP” and GDO
Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
Good news from the GDP report
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
Continue reading
Fed Governor/CEA Chair (on leave) Miran: “Fed Risks Recession Without More Interest Rate Cuts”
From Bloomberg:
On the Eve of the GDP Release: Forecasts, Nowcasts, Tracking
A survey:
Chief Economist and Now Actg Director, Ctr Data Analysis, Heritage; & Chief Economist, Truflation
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
How’s Sector Employment Doing during This Promised Manufacturing “Golden Age”
A compilation: