From Bloomberg:
Judy Shelton @ Treasury
4 Replies
U.Mich. Sentiment Down (Again)
Preliminary at 46.3 < 47.5 Bloomberg consensus with expectations above consensus, and current conditions below. Here’s a picture of indicators, using the Cummings-Tedeschi adjusted U.Michigan series (all series standardized):
Reconciling AI Expected Revenues to CapEx
Jared Bernstein, along with others, calculates the revenues needed to rationalize the AI capital investment in place and planned.
Mr. Trump on the US-Iran War
Speaking at a rally in Nebraska (NYT), regarding the Iranians:
“They could take out a city,” he said. “Let them take — Let them take out Los Angeles. Let them take out San Diego.”
The Employment Release and Business Cycle Indicators
Employment downside surprise, +29K vs +89, with cumulative 81K downward revisions to previous two months. Taking into account early benchmark, it’s not changing the picture too much.
The Term Spread As Recession Predictor, Post-2024
Using a plain vanilla term spread model (spread, short rate), what remains? From notes for tomorrow’s lecture.
Business Cycle Indicators: Real GDP, Personal Income Trajectory Revised Up
Q2 GDP growth revised up 0.7 ppts, path of personal income ex-transfers up due to revised deflator. Here are the key indicators followed by the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee:
Strategic Petroleum Reserves through 9/18
From EIA:
Diesel up 67.5% Relative to Pre-War
From the Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update:
Confidence Slips (Way) Below Consensus
Conference Board index registers 81.9 vs consensus 89.2 (and previous 88.6). It’s currently three standard deviations below mean.