For Q2, GDPNow (q/q AR) is at 4%, while St Louis Fed is at 0.8%.
Nowcasts of GDP Diverge
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NY Fed, SoFIE Predicted April Y/Y Inflation
although they over-estimated in 2023-24.
Ten Year Nominal and Real Yields Jump
As of close today, nominal yields are up 0.62%, real up 0.38% since the beginning of the war.
A “New Normal” in Consumer Gloominess?
We’ve had a record low in the U.Michigan consumer sentiment in May (prel.). Given real aggregate output measures are rising smartly (see this post), why is sentiment so low? Has there been a structural break?
Industrial and Manufacturing Production Up: The Divergence between Employment and Output Continues
Both strongly beat consensus. From the Fed’s G.17 Release today:
Business Cycle Indicators as of Mid-May
Monthly GDP through March is up, while April CPI-deflated retail sales are down. The industrial and manufacturing production release is tomorrow.
Guest Contribution: “Can Professional Forecasters See Productivity Revolutions Coming?”
Today we are fortunate to present a guest post written by N. Kundan Kishor (University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee).
Parsing the Retail Sales Release
Sales rise, overall hits consensus. However, gasoline store sales constitute majority of increase.
“…Chinese restaurants in America today outnumber the five largest fast food chains in the United States all combined.”
Source: Daily Beast.
The Correlation Between Hormuz Strait Reopening and the Inflation Breakeven
As of today’s close: