At least according to EJ Antoni’s definition, in his critique of employment growth under the Biden administration:
gov’t and the gov’t-dominated healthcare sector [employment growth].. it’s all tax-payer funded, and it’s not at all sustainable.
Big jumps in yields; as shown at the five year maturity, the move is evident in both nominal and real yields:
Nonfarm payroll employment upside surprise from CES. CPS indicates something less positive, as does ADP, trendwise.
May NFP growth at +172K outpaces +85K Bloomberg consensus (87K surprise vs. 53K Mean Absolute Revision goinng from 1st-3rd release in 2025), on top of upward revisions in April and March.
Tons of politically motivated commentary in Canada about the implications of 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth and a “technical recession” [1], even though it’s clear most mainstream economists in Canada fail to read much more into the event. I post a figure from 9 months ago, recapping the the 2024 episode in the US.
From Bloomberg:
Not by me, but by Jeffrey A. Tucker, today:
Discussion with Justin Ho on MarketPlace yesterday. Disposable income (after tax, after transfers) is useful for assessing the state of the consumer finances, while personal income ex-current transfers — followed by the NBER’s BCDC — is a better reflection of income coming from economic activity.
Chicago Fed letter, by Brave, Henken, and Jolley: