As expectations of SoH reopening decline.
EPU Jumps
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AI Capex and Accounting for US GDP Growth
New estimates from Soto, Thieu and Allen:
Crashing Expectations (for Hormuz Reopening by 9/1): 6%
Latest Kalshi estimates on re-opening by September 1:
Still Gloomy: Consumers in the Michigan Survey
Continued rebound for sample June 23 to July 13 — which largely predates the resumed increase in gasoline prices.
China Macro Indicators, As Reported
Catching up with the news overseas, China downside surprise:
June Temperature Anomaly
For one month, trailing 12 months:
Industrial, Manufacturing Production and Business Cycle Indicators
Along with GDPNow. Industrial production under consensus (+0.1% m/m ov +0.2% Bloomberg consensus), while manufacturing is flat (+0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus).
Kim Ruhl: “Rethinking Free Trade”
That’s the title of an opinion piece in Finance and Development by former CEA member (2025-26) and UW Madison economics professor Kim Ruhl:
Retail Sales Rebound Continue to Rise
According to data released today; here are alternative business cycle indicators:
PPI and CPI, Again
On Monday, Justin Ho on Marketplace had a piece on producer prices. He covered several interesting questions, including the implications of a PPI rising faster than the CPI: