Polymarket, using definition of 2 quarters of consecutive negative GDP growth OR NBER declaration.
Seems Plausible: Recession in 2026
3 Replies
Brent Prompt Futures Open at +$108
NYMEX:
Uncertainty, Risk, Boots on the Ground?
In the wake of Trump’s musings, from Polymarket:
Market Expectations of Inflation
From Friday’s breakeven (5 year Treasury-TIPS):
So Tired of Winning: Gasoline Prices Today
From GasBuddy at 10:45am CT:
Strait of Hormuz De Facto Closure
Polymarket (8pm CT 3/6) reads 97% probability of closure by 3/31, as defined by the contract as an 80% reduction in 7 day moving average in traffic.
Alternative Business Cycle Indictors
Civilian employment adjusted to NFP concept is diving (after retroactive application of 2026 population controls to January 2026 data), as are real retail sales in January.
NBER BCDC Business Cycle Indicators: Employment and Output Continue to Diverge
A slight recasting of outlook:
Downward Moves in Employment Paths: Beware the Population Controls and B/D Model
The new birth/death model has been in for two months; the new population controls were retroactively applied to January (usually, there are no revisions from month to month). NFP miss of 150K vs Bloomberg consensus of +58K.
Closing the Strait of Hormuz?
What’s the betting on closure by March 31? According to Polymarket, it’s 82% right now…