From X today:
Real Retail Sales and the Business Cycle
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Groceries Rose 9% m/m (annualized) in December
Reported hits the September USDA Economic Research Service forecast. Figure 1 displays the food-at-home component of the CPI, along with ERS forecasts:
Bond Yields and Dollar and Odds on Powell
Responses to DoJ probe: An event study.
Gianluca Benigno: “Tariffs as National Security Tools”
“Talking Heads Are Missing Labor Market Strength”: Heritage Chief Economist
Wide Dispersion in Nowcasts and Tracking
GDPNow for Q4 at 5.1% is considerably higher than Goldman Sachs at 3.1%, and St. Louis Fed at essentially zero.
We Are Well and Truly F****ed: Fed Edition
From Bloomberg:
Six Measures of Nonfarm Payroll Employment: All Below Peak
From CES, CPS, QCEW, Philly Fed, and from ADP:
Change in Federal Debt Held by the Public, Trump 1.0, 2.0, and Biden
The graph says it all.
Wisconsin Manufacturing Employment and Goods Exports under Trump 2.0
Real exports, Manufacturing employment both down relative to 2024M12.