How’s it going? 10 year yields are up relative to Friday. Indeed, after initial progress in lowering long rates, pretty much the entire yield curve is now up.
Yield Curve Pre- and Post-Buyback
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Seven Graphs for the Financial System
Apropos of nothing except current (financial system) events (Fall teaching), some pictures to elicit thoughts.
- Debt rising fast even at full employment
- Stock market near peak?
- Fed funds rate above Taylor rule implied levels.
- Fed credibility lower under Trump 2.0.
- Stablecoins after GENIUS.
- And (not on the syllabus), dollar reserve currency domination eroded (see Eichengreen in NYT yesterday).
So Much for the Manufacturing Employment Renaissance
Preliminary benchmark revision based on QCEW data, released today:
The Petroleum and Petroleum Products Balance
From NIPA accounts:
US-Canada Oil & Gas Trade
From Census via ITA:
Trade Deficit Upside Surprise by $18bn
Goods trade deficit larger than before the election. So much for tariffs reducing goods imports relative to pre tariff.
Where Does the US (and Wisconsin*) Get Its Oil From?
Canada!
“Core GDP” Upwardly Revised
Core GDP, final sales ex net exports and government, was revised upward from 3.9% to 4.2%, even if headline GDP growth was not noticeably revised up. That means domestic aggregate demand momentum remains in place.
Business Cycle Indicators: Real Consumption Is Flat
Nominal consumption beats expectations ( +0.2% m/m vs +0.1% Bbg consensus), but real personal income ex-transfers remains below recent peak.
Guest Contribution: “The U.S. Household-Income Cycle and the Motio Rule”
Today we present a guest post written by Matías Scaglione and Romina Soria of Motio Research, an independent research firm focused on measuring and analyzing U.S. household income.