While Republicans/Lean Republican respondents to the U.Michigan survey don’t show a very different response to March/April economic events, they are remarkably upbeat on the future.
CPI release and U.Michigan expectations, at 4.8% vs. Bloomberg consensus 4.2%
47.6, below consensus of 51.6, down from 53.3.
Have the erratic policies pursued by Mr. Trump over the past year affected dollar holdings? The answer depends.
From the releases today:
From Kalshi:
As of March end:
Average Hourly Earnings in CPI deflated 2025$:
Cleveland Fed nowcast m/m as of today, vs. Bloomberg consensus. The nowcast is a mechanical prediction based on reported CPI and PCE, as well as daily oil prices and weekly gasoline prices.
I see a lot of ebullience in the wake of the March headline NFP number. I’m not so convinced (see here), and looking at other indicators buttresses my wariness.