Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a unit coefficient, and adjusted R2 of 0.56, SER = 0.00087. The resulting nowcast is shown below.
Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:
Here’s the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025. On Tues, it couldn’t release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data. This morning, it couldn’t release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data. Tomorrow, it can’t release Oct 2025 #JobsReport www.bls.gov/schedule/202…November 6, 2025 at 8:26 AMEverybody can reply
Treasury Secretary Bessent says housing is in recession because of high interest rates. Might not high policy uncertainty have some effect?
ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus).
What has driven the betting on the Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs down to 35%? Is it just Trump saying he’s not going to attend? Couldn’t figure out what other “news” there was.
On November 5th, we’ll get the ADP numbers for private NFP. Bloomberg consensus is for +28K, while betting on Kalshi is for +43K. We won’t have October numbers from the BLS for some time, if ever (so EJ Antoni may get his wish, although quarterly employment numbers given no data collection might not be more accurate in this case). If the ADP release hits the consensus number, here’s the picture of the labor market.
Today, we present a guest post written by Jeffrey Frankel, Harpel Professor at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and formerly a member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers. Sohaib Nasim contributed to this commentary. A shorter version was published by Project Syndicate.
Recall, EJ Antoni and Peter St. Onge argued the US economy has been in recession since 2022.
Mark Zandi has asserted that whether the US goes into recession depends on how CA and NY economies evolve. If we rely on GDP to define activity, then the outlook appears sunny.
