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Analysis of current economic conditions and policy

Some Costs Facing Households, since 2024: Consumer Items, Housing, Health Premiums

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Note that CPI growth accelerates post tariffs, but most profoundly, post-war. Health premiums under ACA have risen.

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This entry was posted on November 4, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Maine Senatorial Betting, 10:45PM CT

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Odds for Jackson, when 56% vote in, 50.8% vs 49%.

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This entry was posted on November 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Gasoline and Diesel Price Update, and Brent

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As of yesterday, from EIA via FRED:

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This entry was posted on November 3, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

On the Eve of Escalation

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New strikes on Iran tonight, from WSJ:
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This entry was posted on November 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Gallup on the Eve of the Election

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Decline in Gallup’s October reading.

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This entry was posted on November 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Naval Deployment as of 11/2/2026

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From USNI:

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This entry was posted on November 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Prediction Markets on the Congressional Balance of Power Odds: Democrats Sweep, 3 to 1

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5:30pm CT:

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This entry was posted on November 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Nasdaq Correction

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As of today’s close, Nasdaq down 10%, S&P500 4%, from prior peak.

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This entry was posted on November 2, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Recession in France?

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A statement by the French Business Cycle Dating Committee (CDCEF) of the French Economic Association (AFSE) on 10/29/2026 (original communique in French), by way of Laurent Ferrara (Chair), and secretariatafse@gmail.com.

 

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This entry was posted on November 1, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

Friday AI Fallout

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Nasdaq, SP500, Bloomberg Magnificent 7 index, over the last week.

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This entry was posted on October 30, 2026 by Menzie Chinn.

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Authors

James D. Hamilton is Professor of Economics at the University of California, San Diego

Menzie Chinn is Professor of Public Affairs and Economics at the University of Wisconsin, Madison

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Recent Posts

  • Some Costs Facing Households, since 2024: Consumer Items, Housing, Health Premiums
  • Maine Senatorial Betting, 10:45PM CT
  • Gasoline and Diesel Price Update, and Brent
  • On the Eve of Escalation
  • Gallup on the Eve of the Election

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Current Indicators

Econbrowser faces the data: (since  April 30, 2026)

Econbrowser recession indicator index: 3.5 (describes  2026:Q2)

The most recent U.S. recession began in 2020:Q1 and ended in 2020:Q2

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