That’s the title of my presentation at the 2025 Minnesota Economic Association annual meeting, where I had the honor of speaking at the Leonid Hurwicz Lecture. It was a fantastic opportunity to share my thoughts and in responding to thoughtful questions, expand my views. The event took place at St. Catherine University yesterday.
Apparently, in addition to halting trade negotiations with Canada, an additional 10% tariff is to be applied to imports from Canada. It’s unclear which imports will be tariffed (i.e., will USMCA-covered goods be affected?).
See this clip, at 2:17. Over the longer term, the stock prices should equal the present discounted value of dividends, themselves relective of earnings and profits. That’s basic finance. That being said, there are over time substantial (apparent) deviations from the PDV of dividends (see Shiller, AER 1981), or big moves in the price-earnings ratio, defined in any way you want (12 month trailing, cyclically-adjusted, 1 year forward), as earnings fail to materialize, or the equity risk premium seemingly changes.
Grocery inflation slightly above September ERS forecast for 2025 y/y, furniture prices continue to (technically speaking) zoom up.
Betting is now 37% Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs.
As noted by CNN, the Trump administration’s deactivation of the website tracking climatic-related disasters has been partially alleviated by Climate Central‘s initiative.
In a recent Economist article, Gita Gopinath considered the implications of a AI bust similar in magnitude to the 2001 dotcom bust for the global economy.
As American agriculture faces declining commodity prices amidst (tariff induced) rising input costs and heavy debt loads, here comes uncertainty, elevated by the Federal shutdown (from De Pillis, NYT):
Current betting on Kalshi is for a 34.5 day shutdown (5pm CT), taking us to November 3-4. At this rate, of the NBER BCDC key variables, we will miss consumption and personal income, and the August manufacturing and trade industry sales releases, as well as the Q3 advance GDP release. We’ve already missed the employment situation and industrial production releases.
