From the Atlanta Fed’s Market Probability Tracker, today:
SOFR Path Change Relative to 2/27
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Recession Probabilities: All around 30%-35%
From WSJ, recession within the next 12 months:
The Five Year Inflation Breakeven at 2.66%
Up 0.26 ppts since the war’s beginning. Using Treasury and TIPS:
Regular Folk Prices
Courtesy of BLS, AIER, and (for nowcast) Cleveland Fed. Prepare for impact.
Brent-Urals Spread Today:
Urals way up, to $92.4
Your Morning Petroleum Price Sitrep: Brent Prompt Nears $110
Brought to you by TrumpCo:
Deployment of ARG Tripoli, Betting on Hormuz Re-Opening
As of yesterday, open sources indicate:
The Goods Trade Deficit Adjusted for Gold
Larger than the unadjusted, post-Liberation Day:
Oil Futures in War
Kevin Hassett noted on Face the Nation yesterday:
Miran’s Next Vote
Polymarket reports betting that Stephen Miran will dissent with 98% probability, up from 89.1% on the eve of the Iran war. To me, the interesting question is not whether he dissents, but how he justifies his vote (does he still believe that r* has declined?).