FOMC votes to reduce the Fed funds rate by 25bps with one dissent (Stephen Miran, on loan from CEA), who argued for 50 bps decline.
One of These Is Not Like the Others – Messages from the FOMC SEP
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Business Cycle Indicators at Mid-September
Industrial and manufacturing production, and retail sales, all beating consensus. Nonetheless, there’s a tendency toward trending sideways.
The Danger of Fed Credibility under Assault
If credibility is degraded, then tariff induced cost-push shocks are less likely to manifest as one-off price level increases, and more likely to spur a bout of inflation.
WisPolitics/Wisconsin Technology Council: “How tariffs are affecting Wisconsin’s economy”
Video of proceedings tomorrow (Tues, 9/16) on WisconsinEye [link updated 9/17].
Source: Pawel Skrzypczynski, accessed 9/14/2025.
EJ Antoni, August 22: “The Coming Recession May Have Already Arrived”
That’s the title of an article reprinted at the Heritage.com, by current BLS Commissioner-nominee EJ Antoni,
The Thanks of a Grateful (Coffee-Drinking) Nation
Coffee prices up and away — in the US.
CBO, CEA-OMB-Treasury, and SPF GDP Forecasts: One Is Not Like the Others…
The CEA-OMB-Treasury (“Troika”) forecast looks out of line with the CBO projection and the SPF median forecast.
The Trump Economy Now: “Dead in the water”
That’s former CBO Director Doug Holtz-Eakin (seem minute 2 on this video) (h/t Philip Webre):
Sentiment Declines
Here are standardized indices for Michigan Sentiment, Conference Board Confidence, and Gallup Confidence.
Wisconsin Employment in the Context of the Preliminary Benchmark Revision
Like national employment, Wisconsin employment was downwardly revised (preliminary), by 79K. Splicing in the change as BLS would do yields the following picture of Wisconsin NFP.