Fed Chair Powell has suggested that the BLS birth-death model is overstating per month job creation by 60K since April. If so, nonfarm payroll employment is trending down.
Employment, Heavy Truck Sales and Cautionary Notes
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Further Deceleration in Nowcasted “Core GDP”
Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption and fixed investment) to GDP growth (q/q AR) was 2.84%, close to the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.
October NFP Guesses
My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November release).
Worse than 9/11, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and Pearl Harbor…
From The Hill:
q-theory in a Time of AI
A staple of mid-1980’s investment modeling, q-theory was an alternative to the Keynes’ marginal efficiency of capital or Jorgenson user cost of capital approaches. A version of q –the ratio of market value to replacement value of a corporation’s capital — was central in Summers’ 1981 BPEA paper modeling corporate investment behavior. And yet, q-theory is now almost completely absent from recent discussion of the level of capital investment (in contrast to the debate nearly two decades ago). Why? First a picture of q, the market price relative to replacement cost of physical capital.
An Insight into the Vibecession and Aggregate Statistics Divergence
I don’t have a resolution to the debate, but I have an insight, regarding per capita series (which is different from aggregate statistics used to determine a recession), summarized in a couple graphs.
Stablecoins As a Rorschach Test
I haven’t been following the development of stablecoins, both before and after the signing into law of the so-called “GENIUS Act”, so I found this paper a must-read: “Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks”, by Rashad Ahmed, James A. Clouse, Fabio Natalucci, Alessandro Rebucci & Geyue Sun, NBER Working Paper No 34475. [ungated version]
SecTrsy Bessent: “The American people don’t know how good they have it.”
Trump’s Economic Team – cont’d
Guest Contribution: “How Geopolitical Tensions Could Shape France’s Inflation Outlook”
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee), and Jamel Saadaoui (Professor at University of Paris 8 – LED).