What’s the betting on closure by March 31? According to Polymarket, it’s 82% right now…
Closing the Strait of Hormuz?
Leave a reply
Will Consumer Sentiment Take a Hit?
It’s already quite low:
Betting on US Troops in Iran by Year’s End: 59%
From Polymarket just now:
Betting on Gasoline Prices: $3.50/gal. by Month’s End
Kalshi reports just now:
Oil Prices: Level or Change?
Talking about the Iran war in macro class yesterday, a student asked if the oil price increase seen to date constituted an “oil shock”. I answered, in terms of price increase so far, not yet, and terms of level, oil prices are still fairly low. However, it then occurred to me that there is a intermediate measure, due to Jim Hamilton. First, WTI oil prices:
On Day 5 of War, EPU and GPR Spiked
Somewhat surprisingly, VIX remains relatively low.
Gasoline Prices, 3 March 2026: Thanks, Drumpf!
/s/ owner of internal combustion engine passenger vehicle…
Interpreting 2/27 in Basic IS-LM w/Exogenous Price Shock
From notes for PA854 (before AD-AS chapter), to be discussed tomorrow:
Fed More Likely to Stay Pat?
CME FedWatch indicates staying put next meeting, rises by nearly 5 percentage points; staying at current rate rises at the 29 April meeting by nearly 10 percentage points.
Geopolitical, Financial Risk and Economic Policy Uncertainty
Up for geopolitical risk, not for financial.