Following up on Jim’s post yesterday, here are some additional thoughts on the “initial” (consolidated advance and 2nd) release: (1) GDP far exceeds nowcasts, (2) potentially more momentum-relevant “core GDP” advances strongly, but much less so than GDP, and (3) alternative estimates of economic activity like GDO suggest slower growth.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that seasonally adjusted U.S. real GDP grew at a 4.3% annual rate in the third quarter. That is somewhat higher than both the historical average growth and the value anticipated by many forecasters.
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From Bloomberg:
A survey:
That’s EJ Antoni, who has not a single peer-reviewed paper.
A compilation:
Of the BLS, that is. From EJ Antoni writing in Heritage, “Why the Labor Market Is Stronger Than Experts Think”:
From the December U.Michigan Survey of Consumers:
Numerous commentators have noted anomalies in the latest CPI release. Smith/Bloomberg quotes
“Lost in Translation,” according to TD Securities. “Delayed and Patchy,” per William Blair, and a “Swiss Cheese CPI report” from EY-Parthenon.
In contrast, the downside surprise was hailed by credulous NEC Director Kevin Hassett as “astonishingly good”.
The November unemployment rate came in at 4.6% v. 4.5% Bloomberg consensus. What does the Sahm rule say about whether we’re in a recession or not? Nothing, as we don’t have an October reading (thanks to the wisdom of OMB declaring BLS employees non-essential).