Shutdown?Tariff legality? Travel disruptions? SNAP disruption? Collapsing sentiment? Political uncertainty?
Economic and Trade Policy Uncertainty Spikes: Speculation
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How Sensitive Is Economic Sentiment Respond to News?
In 2025, it depends. Particularly if you are a Republican/Lean Republic — then it’s almost zero…
Expectations, Current Situation, Sentiment Decline to Near Record Low Levels
Yesterday, University of Michigan Survey consumer sentiment surprised on the downside, (50.3 vs. 53.0 Bloomberg consensus) along multiple dimensions, including assessments of the current situation (52.3 vs. 59.2 consensus) and expectations regarding the future (49.0 vs. 50.3 consensus); and is deteriorating over time.
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Nowcasting Private NFP using ADP Data
Using 2022M01-25M08 data on implied preliminary benchmark private employment, a regression on first log differences yields a unit coefficient, and adjusted R2 of 0.56, SER = 0.00087. The resulting nowcast is shown below.
DonaldTrump Rex (would be)
Not the marrying his mother and killing his father part, but (metaphorically) gouging his own eyes out. From Aaron Sojourner:
Here’s the planned BLS data release schedule for Nov 2025. On Tues, it couldn’t release Sept job openings, hires, layoffs and firings data. This morning, it couldn’t release 2025Q3 business Productivity and Costs data. Tomorrow, it can’t release Oct 2025 #JobsReport www.bls.gov/schedule/202…November 6, 2025 at 8:26 AMEverybody can reply
Housing in Recession: Interest Rates or Policy Uncertainty
Treasury Secretary Bessent says housing is in recession because of high interest rates. Might not high policy uncertainty have some effect?
ADP Private NFP and Implied BLS NFP [updated]
ADP released +42K private NFP surprises upside (+32K Bloomberg consensus).
Why the Administration Is Happy Not to See the October Employment Numbers
Betting on Noise? Supreme Court and IEEPA Tariffs
What has driven the betting on the Supreme Court upholding IEEPA tariffs down to 35%? Is it just Trump saying he’s not going to attend? Couldn’t figure out what other “news” there was.
Labor Market Indicators amidst the Shutdown
On November 5th, we’ll get the ADP numbers for private NFP. Bloomberg consensus is for +28K, while betting on Kalshi is for +43K. We won’t have October numbers from the BLS for some time, if ever (so EJ Antoni may get his wish, although quarterly employment numbers given no data collection might not be more accurate in this case). If the ADP release hits the consensus number, here’s the picture of the labor market.