Just under two months ago, GDPNow’s estimate of the contribution of final sales to private domestic purchasers (sum of consumption and fixed investment) to GDP growth (q/q AR) was 2.84%, close to the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ median; now it’s 2.15%.
My estimates based on ADP, JOLTS based estimate (courtesy Paweł Skrzypczyński). Delayed CES report on 12/16 (coming out with November release).
From The Hill:
A staple of mid-1980’s investment modeling, q-theory was an alternative to the Keynes’ marginal efficiency of capital or Jorgenson user cost of capital approaches. A version of q –the ratio of market value to replacement value of a corporation’s capital — was central in Summers’ 1981 BPEA paper modeling corporate investment behavior. And yet, q-theory is now almost completely absent from recent discussion of the level of capital investment (in contrast to the debate nearly two decades ago). Why? First a picture of q, the market price relative to replacement cost of physical capital.
I don’t have a resolution to the debate, but I have an insight, regarding per capita series (which is different from aggregate statistics used to determine a recession), summarized in a couple graphs.
I haven’t been following the development of stablecoins, both before and after the signing into law of the so-called “GENIUS Act”, so I found this paper a must-read: “Stablecoins: A Revolutionary Payment Technology with Financial Risks”, by Rashad Ahmed, James A. Clouse, Fabio Natalucci, Alessandro Rebucci & Geyue Sun, NBER Working Paper No 34475. [ungated version]
Today, we’re pleased to present a guest contribution by Laurent Ferrara (Professor of Economics at Skema Business School, Paris and Chair of the French Business Cycle Dating Committee), and Jamel Saadaoui (Professor at University of Paris 8 – LED).
Compare to 2.8% y/y, 2.7% q/q AR.
