Consumers say they’re gloomy, but why are they still spending?
Yearly Archives: 2008
Housing and the oil shock
The housing downturn and rising gasoline prices are each exerting a significant contractionary influence on U.S. GDP. There is also an interactive effect between the two.
Recession versus Negative Output Gap
Over the past few days, I’ve been trying to identify appropriate measures of the output gap (and trying to relate that to exchange rate changes). As I’ve done so, I’ve come to realize that (1) it’s a difficult thing to do, and (2) interesting stories come out of different measures.
Trends in Key Recession Indicators
Since December 2007 is a commonly identified turning point [1], [2], I thought it would be of interest (given Jim’s take on whether it matters if we’re in a recession) to see what the indicators that the NBER BCDC focus on — payroll employment, industrial production, real personal income less transfers, real manufacturing and trade sales, and to a lesser extent monthly real GDP — are doing. They’re declining…
Oil spike
Why did oil breach $138?
Is this a recession and do we care?
Could well be, and yes you should.
Oil Prices in Other Currencies
Some of the explanations for the dollar jump rely upon the perceived weakness in the dollar’s value (and hence, by extension, Fed policy). Does this make sense?
The oil shock of 2008
Time to reassess the potential for recent oil price increases to contribute to an economic downturn.
More on De-Globalization: Oil, Transport Costs and Inflation
Following up on this post from October 2006, when oil was only $58.88 (WTI,daily average) a barrel, consider this excerpt from today’s Thomas Net:
The impact of rising transportation costs, driven significantly by high oil prices, is already being seen in capital-intensive manufacturing that carry a high ratio of freight costs to the final sale price. But a new report has determined that higher energy prices are affecting transport costs at such an unprecedented rate that “the cost of moving goods, not the cost of tariffs, is the largest barrier to global trade today.”
SNDE Interview
Bruce Mizrach prepared some very thoughtful questions for an interview at the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics Symposium in San Francisco two months ago. We discussed a broad range of topics, including my background, Markov-switching models, the Fed, oil prices, and why I blog. Below are links you can follow to see the answers to particular questions.