Reader Steven Kopits disputes the idea that the US per capita fatality rates can approach those of Italy:
Reporting for the day May 8, the US had the 5th highest death rate (for this day alone, not cumulatively), at 6.8 per million. Interestingly, Sweden was No. 2 at 9.7 per million.
Here’s the top fifteen in order (worst at top) of 84 countries reporting deaths today:
Italy’s cumulative death rate is 14%. The US stands at about 6%. There is no possibility that the US death rate will approach Italy’s.
I will merely note that the US is currently logging about 2000/fatalities per day at roughly constant pace, while Italy’s fatalities per day is declining. That is why gradients/first derivatives are of interest.
Using the IHME estimates as of today, the August 4 cumulatives for the US is 134,475, for Italy it’s 31,458. With US population at 328.2 million (2019) and Italian population at 60.36, this implies 409.7 fatalities/million in US versus 521.2 fatalities/million in Italy. Since the upper bound for the IHME forecast is 242,890, implying a cumulative fatality rate of 740.1 fatalities/million, I think it very possible the US cumulative fatality rate will exceed that of Italy’s.
For more on Mr. Kopits’ previous forecasts, see here.