See figure below:
Source: FT, accessed 7/28/2020.
For those who believe that increased testing is behind the increased number of cases, here is a testing-insensitive time series.
Addendum: Reader sammy says these numbers in the first figure are infinitesimal; but those are flows. Here are cumulatives. Not …so…trivial…now.
Source: FT, accessed 7/28/2020.
Reader Bruce Hall thinks Southern states that opened up are doing relatively well on a per capita basis. Here is a graphic for that view.
You can’t fault the governors of Florida, Texas and Georgia for not trying hard!
Addendum, 7/30: Reader CoRev agrees that one should beware definitive statements. Here is one from CoRev on July 9, 2018, over two years ago:
Those of us arguing against the constant anti-tariff, anti-Trump dialogs have noted this will probably be a price blip lasting until US/Chinese negotiations end. We are on record saying the prices will be back approaching last year’s harvest season prices.
Harvest season is late September to late November. I’ll use October 2017. That’s around 988, eyeballing. As of 12:40 central today, front month futures are 886, down from 1050 just before Trump’s 301 action. Still waitin’ for that blip to end…
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average
Similar looking; not similar scale. Looks as if U.S. peak was about 8.0 vs. 6.5 in April. You are also looking at a flatter curve for the U.S. than European nations which might be, in part, due to the more extensive geography and the slow-motion rollout of the virus from NYC – https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
It would be interesting to see a video of a map showing the spread and number of deaths by geographic area by week since March. Haven’t come across that yet. I have seen videos describing how “record number of hospitalizations” have occurred, but none with actual data to compare those “records” with what occurred in New York and surrounding states in April. 30,000+ have died in New York. If Arizona is having record hospitalizations, how does that compare per 100,000 with New York? The comparisons are difficult. The best I’ve found so far shows Arizona with 1/4 the death rate of New York; Florida which was having a “record” is about 1/6 the death rate of New York. So “record” is a relative term that, while accurate, may be misleading in the overall picture. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
As Menzie’s update notes, you are confusing flows with cumulatives. Even with the flow data, deaths in the US per week are increasing. Of course a Trump sycophant like you would call that a “slight uptick”.
Bruce Hall The primary effect of geography would be new infections. Geography would only affect deaths indirectly. The lower population density in the US should have been our advantage over the EU, but even with that advantage we’re still finding a way to do worse. The COVID cases in the NY area came as a surprise, just as they came as a surprise in France, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Germany, etc. But NY and those EU countries somehow managed to find the self-discipline to get the virus under control. The states outside of the northeast and west coast all had the advantage of being forewarned, but governors in those states decided it was more important to keep bars and restaurants open. Like Trump, too many voters lack impulse control. And like Trump, now they’re paying the price. Meanwhile the EU countries can only pity the US. You should watch some of the news broadcasts from Germany or France or Britain. They just shake their heads at how stupid Americans are.
If Arizona is having record hospitalizations, how does that compare per 100,000 with New York?
One of the consequences of a lower death rate is that the number of patient days spent in the hospital increases. The number of people in the hospital peaked on 16 April at 59,940. Then it fell steadily and bottomed out at 27,867 on 15 June. On 23 July it was back up to 59,885; i.e., back where it was two months earlier. Yesterday’s number came in at 57,091, although that is likely to be revised upward because of reporting lags. It gets worse. The 7 day moving average of new hospital admissions on 6 April saw a local peak at 4,114. Then it fell, turned around and peaked again in late May at 4,470. In the last week that number has actually fallen to 2,507. But yet hospitals are running out of beds. What’s happening here? Well, the 7 day moving average of new admissions hit its low point on 21 June at 984. So admissions are on the rise AND the duration of each hospital stay is increasing as you can see if you compare the numbers currently in the hospital with new admissions. The average stay in April was 59,940 / 4,114 = 14.6 days. Currently the average stay is 57,091 / 2,507 = 22.8 days. The good news is that the mortality rate per infection is falling relative to what it was in April. The bad news is that people are in pain much longer and will come out of the hospital with insurmountable medical bills. We both agree that not going to school has adverse effects on children. I hope we would agree that having disabled and bankrupt parents also has adverse effects on children.
“It would be interesting to see a video of a map showing the spread and number of deaths by geographic area by week since March.”
You keep ignoring Florida where their governor followed your Trumpian advice. How come Brucie? 6000 deaths and rising by almost 200 per day. Oh yea – you call that a “slight uptick”. BTW there are a lot of young Flordians with this virus who require hospitalization. Which of course you said was not even possible.
Jim Acosta (aka pgl) is making up his own version of my comments: BTW there are a lot of young Flordians with this virus who require hospitalization. Which of course you said was not even possible.
Eh, no. Didn’t say any such thing. But keep trying. Perhaps you’ll keep you job at CNN.
You deny saying young people would not suffer from this virus? SERIOUSLY? Hey Brucie boy – be careful as there is some troll posing here as you. And that troll is both stupid and dishonest as it gets.
On your last link. Sammy wants to ignore the cumulative totals and focus on the flows. You do too when it serves Trumpian purposes. Now everyone knows NY got hit first and really hard. Which is why we decided to do the right thing. And guess what? We have bent the curve with few new deaths per day.
Now it is true that the Trumpian states got hit later so their totals are not that high yet. But have you checked the flows as Sammy would ask in places like Florida? Actually I bet you have liars like you disregard data that contradicts your usual BS.
So we are talking about the a difference between .25 and 2.75 deaths per MILLION? Both are infinitesimal numbers.
A further complication is that there is no accepted international standard for how you measure deaths, or their causes.
Does somebody need to have been tested for coronavirus to count towards the statistics, or are the suspicions of a doctor enough?
Germany counts deaths in care homes only if people have tested positive for the virus. Belgium, on the other hand, includes any death in which a doctor suspects coronavirus was involved.
The UK’s daily figures only count deaths when somebody has tested positive for the virus, but its weekly figures include suspected cases.
Also, does the virus need to be the main cause of death, or does any mention on a death certificate count?
But the difference between .25 and 2.75 per million, really?
sammy: Added figure to post. How about 424 vs 304 vs 5.8 per million?
“sammy says these numbers in the first figure are infinitesimal; but those are flows.”
And there is Bruce Hall who looks at the increase in the flow figure and calls it a “slight uptick”.
Yep, that international accepted standard for measuring death is a huge problem. Think of the shame Banquo’s ghost would feel, spooking around without international recognition. Think of how stupid all those life insurance actuaries must feel, basing their statistical model on mist and moonbeams. Or how about insurance execs, paying out death benefits on deaths that don’t meet internationally recognized standards. That turkey drumstick? Maybe you should wait for the inspectors, just to be sure.
Something must be done.
The upper limit for the EPA lead standard for drinking water is 15 parts per billion. Iron is only about 1 millionth of a male human body by weight, but if you get too far from that number, bad things happen. Just because you can find the caps lock doesn’t mean you get to decide what is an important difference or a number too small to matter.
sammy’s story all along has been that it’s OK if a bunch of people die unnecessarily. Nothing to see here. Better to worry about scary people exercising their rights of free speech and assembly, or ducks, or pencil. Anything but Trump’s many failures.
Depending on what you are measuring, .25 per million and 2.75 per million could be more than a little bit significant. But Sammy doesn’t care who dies.
Willie,
Eliminating all death is a very hard thing to do.
sammy: I’d be happy with 6.2/million as in Australia.
Hastening it through stupidity and ideological rigidity is unconscionable. Yes, people die, but you are a cheerleader for suffering and premature death for a whole lot of people. Plus, your numbers are demonstrably wrong. Typical bunker boy shill. The combination of callousness and dishonesty is a trademark.
You are truly contemptible.
Where is Australia or our cousin New Zealand
Not Trampis: 6.2 and 4.5 per million, respectively.
Thanks he says with puffed chest
New Zealand less than 5 million people v. Australia’s 25 million. So Australia’s 6.2 is just over 150 deaths where as New Zealand has seen only 22 deaths. So when Sammy claims:
“Eliminating all death is a very hard thing to do.”
Keep in mind New Zealand came close. And given the fact that Australia and New Zealand are a lot closer to China than the US is, this is a remarkable feat.
Menzie,
If you scroll down to the “US states in Detail” in your second link https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=usa&areas=eur&areas=kor&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usfl&areasRegional=ustx&areasRegional=usaz&cumulative=1&logScale=0&perMillion=1&values=deaths
you will see that many states are under 100 in cumulative deaths per million. 4 states are over 1.000 deaths per million: New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts. If the Federal response was ineffective, why did many states have low fatalities, while those 4 fared so much worse?
sammy: That’s about the silliest question you’ve ever asked. There’s always luck – low density, no meat processing plants, etc. But as a nation, we could’ve done better.
“4 states are over 1.000 deaths per million: New Jersey, New York, Connecticut, and Massachusetts.”
Wait wait – Sammy has switched from reporting flows to reporting totals. Huh – now if he started reporting flows when it comes to NY, he would see our efforts worked.
Sammy is indeed one slippery dude.
Well, he tries to be. For today’s effort, his masters may want to withhold payment.
Menzie switched.
sammy: Did not switch – I added. I keep on stressing gradient as well as level. It’s just for the innumerate that I added the cumulation, since you seemed to stress fatalities/mn in flow.
Hey Sammy – I have a cure for the huge deficit problem. Let’s report all figures in per day terms rather than in per annum terms. And we can just ignore the past figures by telling the government not to report the Federal debt at all. Of course this would be an absurd thing to do but it is right in line with your coronavirus reporting approach.
There’s also timing. The states that got hit early were flying blind when it came to treatment. The treatments that were originally used weren’t always effective and some were counter productive. Current treatments are not great, but better than the first attempts. Sammy’s dishonesty just keeps multiplying.
Still looking at flow figures. And yea in NY we have reduced new deaths by doing the right thing and ignoring MAGA hat wearers like you.
It is a shame that neither Bruce Hall nor Sammy gets basic math as the chart showing flows of new deaths is entirely consistent with the cumulatives. Early on the cumulatives for the US and the EU were increasing similarly and the flows (rate of change for cumulatives) were similar. Both flows started showing a decline, which means cumulatives were still rising but less rapidly. But note the EU got its flow down more than we ever did and they have kept it down as opposed to the US new deaths are now rising. And this is why total deaths per capita for the US is considerably higher than total deaths per capita for the EU.
Very basic math which of course escapes both Sammy and Bruce Hall. Of course Bruce Hall calls the rising new deaths in the US “a slight uptick” which is “statistically insignificant”. Then again Bruce Hall does not understand statistics as he never got past 3rd grade arithmetic.
As the virus has been spreading from New York (per New York Times) there are bound to be more deaths, but again… not at the weekly numbers that occurred in April with a much smaller affected geography. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/07/us/new-york-city-coronavirus-outbreak.html
Those New Yorkers have such infectious personalities.
While cumulative totals are naturally to define the scope of the problem, the 7-day moving average or weekly totals are more relevant to show the present situation. So, yes, when comparing 16,000 weekly deaths to 3,000 moving to 4,000… that’s slightly. You seem to forget we are a nation of 325 million people. You seem to forget that 80% of the deaths are people 55-years and older with over 40% occurring in nursing home. You seem to forget that hospitalizations are not nearly the level they were in April whe far less geography was impacted.
So, in the totality of the picture… slightly and staying lower. And, yes, hydroxychloroquine does save the lives of people infected with Covid-19… if administered properly. Please call Henry Ford Health Systems for more information.
Bruce Hall: When more and more studies come out, and you have to rely on one study on the other side to buttress your case, you are losing (well, at least with the data-based analysts, not those operating on faith).
I see. China is not at fault here. Europeans flying into JFK were not the problem. The problem is people in New York City. Bruce – I’ll resist the temptation of calling you an a$$hole because I don’t want to dwell on the obvious.
“hydroxychloroquine does save the lives of people infected with Covid-19”
Dr. Fauci noted just today that this claim is false. But what does he know? Good luck getting a date with Dr. Simone Gold.
pgl: Who you gonna believe? NIH head of allergy/infectious disease, or Dr. Simone Gold?
Some dudes would trust an attractive woman over a 75 year old man. But we’ve seen pictures of Dr. Gold and it seems the 75 year dude is not nearly as ugly. AND he has his own baseball card. OK, he is a damn Nationals fan but my Braves still has a better record so far.
I tend to believe docs who have first hand experience treating disease…. over an epidemiologist with an outward appearance of impropriety and bias. Tell us again how remdesivir stacks up against other options? Yet, push that???
hcq(plus) has been in use for far longer than you would be led to believe if you read the news. Just saying. Trump tweets cause extreme TDS in an otherwise rational society. But, by all means, reject hcq if you are unfortunate to contract cov19.
mrp: Hah, hah. Betcha I got more MD’s in my family than in yours. And they’re almost all in the Seattle area. (And *what* exactly are you accusing *whom* of?)
By the way, have you been treated with alien DNA?
Bruce Hall’s new girlfriend Dr. Simone Gold gets a PolitiFact Check as Trump has been tweeting her lies:
https://www.politifact.com/article/2020/jul/28/fact-checking-video-doctors-talking-about-coronavi/
This is a double bonus as it includes:
Dr. Stella Immanuel: “This virus has a cure. It is called hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and Zithromax. I know you people want to talk about a mask. Hello? You don’t need a mask. There is a cure.”
Of course these claims were rated “false”. Oh wait another bonus:
Dr. Dan Erickson on lockdowns and reopenings: “So this measured approach I’m talking about isn’t made up. It’s going on in Sweden, and their deaths are about 564 per million. UK, full lockdown, 600 deaths per million. So we’re seeing that the lockdowns aren’t decreasing significantly the amount of deaths per million.”
Cherry picked numbers? Read the whole discussion as we know Bruce Hall will not.
pgl, oh, it’s nice you get all of your medical advices from the “truth” watchers at Facebook and Twitter and Politifact (newspapers who couldn’t possible be biased)… and that you disregard medical professionals who don’t fit your narrative.
Cherry pick your sources much?
Bruce Hall: Politifact is wrong/biased. And we are to trust a dropbox file over data straight from CDC?
Still defending your looney tune doctors? Careful on that date with Dr. Stella Immanuel as she is so bonkers you make catch some really awful sexual disease.
NY, Conn., NJ, Mass were hit first and the medical system did not know much about treating them. Later states have benefit of learning from early states experience — especially not returning elderly to nursing homes.
They did have the benefit from learning from us assuming they paid attention to the science and not the batshit garbage from Bruce Hall’s favorite doctors.
what the second figure shows is that if you actually take action against the virus, you can significantly slow down its spread. this is a choice. europe chose to slow the spread. the usa chose not to slow the spread. our current situation is self inflicted. it is this past choice of not stopping the spread that currently makes us unable to consider bringing most students back into the classroom. once again, let me emphasize, these are CHOICES that we have made, implicitly or explicitly. you want to reopen the bars? then your choice means you keep the schools closed. apparently we have a segment of the population who do not want to take responsibility for their choices. they want to spend on the credit card, but not pay the bill when it comes due.
Given how politics and lack of testing obscure what is a “Covid-19 death”, I’d love to see these charts done with excess deaths from all causes.
All ya gotta do is ask:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Scroll down for the chart.
grhabyt: Slightly outdated estimates here.
My take on all this as one who has been reading more than I care to about COVID-19, is the focus on some of these mortality statistics over looks the key issue. From the initial outbreaks in all regions the key factor was to avoid crushing the healthcare infrastructure with lots of people that required hospitalization. Whether you want to call it a quarantine or shelter in place is irrelevant as those are just terms which can be defined in many different ways. A zoonotic virus with no previous human exposure can run through a population rapidly and certainly the Italian Lombardy and greater New York City regions are proof of this. I along with a number of my colleagues felt early on that the Case Fatality Rate (number of people dying from COVID-19 as a percent of those infected) would drop way below the numbers report for Italy and New York City. My own estimate has been 0.3-0.6%. the lower bound of the estimate is what the UK observed for the 1958-59 influenza epidemic. Based on current statistics of documented infections and mortality, the CFR = 3.4%. Because of the number of individuals that have had COVID-19 but not been tested, the actual CFR is lower than this but we do not know by how much. The current ‘mini-pandemic’ that has affected the southern states, AZ and CA has been between 1.5-2% over the past two weeks.
While cross region comparisons are interesting, I know of no region other than maybe New Zealand that has not seen a major outbreak after initially getting the virus under control. There are obvious reasons for this but the main one is nonchalance among the public regarding physical distancing and the wearing of masks. The other key factor is the lack of knowledge about what percentage of the public that will need to get infected in order to achieve herd immunity. For some communicable diseases that number can be very high (measles and chicken pox). We do not know the answer for SARS-CoV-2. there have been a lot of very fine papers published using different modeling approaches to come up with an answer. Most standard epidemiological models early on were looking at an infection rate of 40-70%. I now feel comfortable with a 30-60% rate and it may tend towards the smaller side. Lest anyone take comfort in a low rate, simple mathematics results in 297K deaths with an infection rate of 30% and mortality rate of 0.3%. The sarcastic optimist would gleefully say that with 150K deaths we are half way home.
As Menzie notes, we could have done better. I have been appalled at a lot of levels about the US response both individually and collectively. Physical distancing and wearing masks are not difficult concepts to grasp. A disjointed US biomedical research enterprise is far more troubling. I look at how fast the UK is able to get large clinical trials up and running and it puts the US to shame. This morning I read a pre-print on a large epidemiological study of COVID-19 hospitalizations using an Electronic Health Record system. You might think that this was a great work by some academic research group when in fact it was done by the biopharma company Genentech. Go figure. Enough for now. All of these faults will come out when there is a high level COVID-19 commission that looks across the entire system. Right now I do not see anyone emerging with their reputations fully intact. As always if anyone is interested, I have 18 weeks worth of daily newsletters archived here: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/
Trump is touting Dr. Stella Immanuel as his new COVID19 expert but the press is calling her the “demon doctor. What is going on here?
https://www.thedailybeast.com/stella-immanuel-trumps-new-covid-doctor-believes-in-alien-dna-demon-sperm-and-hydroxychloroquine
“A Houston doctor who praises hydroxychloroquine and says that face masks aren’t necessary to stop transmission of the highly contagious coronavirus has become a star on the right-wing internet, garnering tens of millions of views on Facebook on Monday alone. Donald Trump Jr. declared the video of Stella Immanuel a “must watch,” while Donald Trump himself retweeted the video.”
I see. Bruce Hall’s kind of girl. Maybe if he can’t get a date with Dr. Simone Gold, he could ask out Dr. Stella Immanuel. But wait:
“Before Trump and his supporters embrace Immanuel’s medical expertise, though, they should consider other medical claims Immanuel has made—including those about alien DNA and the physical effects of having sex with witches and demons in your dreams. Immanuel, a pediatrician and a religious minister, has a history of making bizarre claims about medical topics and other issues. She has often claimed that gynecological problems like cysts and endometriosis are in fact caused by people having sex in their dreams with demons and witches. She alleges alien DNA is currently used in medical treatments, and that scientists are cooking up a vaccine to prevent people from being religious. And, despite appearing in Washington, D.C. to lobby Congress on Monday, she has said that the government is run in part not by humans but by “reptilians” and other aliens.”
Definitely Bruce Hall’s kind of girl!
Maybe that explains why Houston has such a problem with COVID right now. Or maybe not. Most of the Texans I know are sane.
I wish the people of Texas well. I also wish the people of Michigan well too especially since they have to endure the total nut job we call Bruce Hall.
Still waiting for the newly affected regions/states to start matching the top 10 on this list. Nope, not happening. Won’t happen. Hard to find Florida and Texas because they are so far down the list. But let’s hear it for the leaders in NJ and NY. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/
pgl likes to pretend that deaths from Covid-19 have stopped happening in states that were affected in April and all of the present weekly deaths are from areas into which the virus has spread. No, still happening in those early-infected states. Yes, lower numbers, but still happening.
This chart is especially for pgl. https://www.dropbox.com/s/mcritgze8z7pift/Top%20Covid-19%20States%20Death%20Rates.pdf?dl=0
“pgl likes to pretend that deaths from Covid-19 have stopped happening in states that were affected in April and all of the present weekly deaths are from areas into which the virus has spread.”
Poor little Bruce Hall has gone from whining to downright lying. I am fully aware that NY is still seeing deaths – but not nearly as many as we were seeing early. Oh wait such statements go way over your incompetent little brain. Never mind.
Bruce – do you even have a clue what your dropbox chart even showed. Total deaths from the beginning is not the same metric as new deaths in the past few days. Dude – 3 year olds know the difference. But not Bruce Hall.
The 2nd link is really funny. It blames the political party of the governor for the number of deaths in that state. And we thought AG Barr was a complete and total political a$$hole. Take a bow Brucie Boy. Maybe Jared will give you a bone to fetch.
When someone writes something like this:
“pgl likes to pretend that deaths from Covid-19 have stopped happening in states that were affected in April and all of the present weekly deaths are from areas into which the virus has spread.”
One is referring to the CHANGE in total deaths not the totals over the year (BTW Bruce Hall’s statement is another one of his patented lies). So what does the village idiot named Bruce Hall use? Cumulative deaths by states. Even Sammy eventually got the difference. Of course Sammy whined that our host switched the criteria, which is not true.
But Bruce Hall has switched the criteria. I might accuse him of flat out dishonesty here but given the sheer stupidity of his comments, maybe this Trumpian fool does not know the difference.
Bruce Hall Wow. You really stepped in it this time. You obviously do not understand your data source. Those “death rates” are not instantaneous death rates, they are simply the total number of deaths from the beginning of the pandemic divided by the state’s population divided by 100,000. New York had nine COVID deaths yesterday. Florida had 191 deaths yesterday. Your stupid dropbox slide shows New York with 178 deaths per 100,000. That’s a near useless statistic when looking at trends. Your analytical skills are shockingly poor.
As to that Henry Ford hospital group study on hydroxychloroquine that you keep hyping, why don’t you try reading for comprehension? The study doesn’t say what you think it says. For one thing the study said that their hospitals used an approach that differed from other hospitals across a number of different treatments, not just the use of hydroxychloroquine. So you can’t identify hydroxychloroquine as the reason for improved outcomes. Do you understand what a controlled clinical trial is? It doesn’t sound like it. This was a point that the hospitals in Ann Arbor pointed out as a problem with the Henry Ford findings. The other big problem is that while the Henry Ford survival rate was better than the median survival rate without hydroxychloroquine, it was still well within the range of expected outcomes without hydroxychloroquine. In other words, the Henry Ford results were not statistically significant. In even simpler terms, the apparently higher survival rate found by the Henry Ford hospitals was most likely due to sheer random chance. If you’re going to cite a study, please go to the effort of actually understanding it. You’re just making yourself look even more foolish than those fake doctors and their fake press conference. Putin is laughing at you.
Even Sammy has figured out the difference between flows and totals over the year. But not Bruce Hall. Stupid as hell or is he just lying as usual?
But not Bruce Hall. Stupid as hell or is he just lying as usual?
I don’t think he is consciously lying. My personal pop psychology observations over the years tell me that conservatives have a very hard time dealing with flows or anything dynamic. Remember how CoRev and PeakTrader used to struggle with stocks and flows? The conservative brain is hardwired to think statically. It’s what makes them a conservative. They have a hard time with dy/dt. I first noticed this way back when I was in high school and I thought it curious that my conservative friends all seemed to have a hard time throwing a football to a moving receiver. They just couldn’t imagine or project motion through time. And they had a hard time merging with traffic onto the interstate where the driver has to where cars will be 10 seconds ahead.
“New York had nine COVID deaths yesterday. Florida had 191 deaths yesterday.”
As in the flow aka change in total deaths over a time period (1 day). Menzie showed how the totals in each state look from the beginning. Yes NY has a higher total because we had a lot of deaths each day in the early period.
Now if one looks at the slope in Menzie’s graph calling out Brucie’s mendacity, NY’s slope (aka flow) over the past few weeks are been virtually flat whereas those Southern states Bruce thinks are doing great are quite steep.
Look even a 3 year old could have figured this out by now. But not Bruce Hall. At some point this goes beyond being the dumbest troll ever. No – Bruce Hall is a liar. And he proves that with each and every comment.
In today’s House hearing one of the Republicans bozos asked Dr. Fauci about this Henry Ford hospital group study on hydroxychloroquine. The bozo claimed this “study” proved it worked when combined with zinc. Dr. Fauci blew this argument away.
I suspect Bruce Hall is a fan of Louie Gohmert:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/a-shameless-gohmert-tries-to-blame-masks-for-getting-covid-19
Rep. Louie Gohmert (R-TX), who tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday after long dismissing the necessity of wearing masks, has cooked up a truly bold spin on his predicament. “I can’t help but wonder if by keeping a mask on and keeping it in place that if I might have put some germs, some of the virus, onto the mask and breathed it in,” Gohmert told KETK News in a Skype interview several hours after news of his diagnosis broke. Gohmert said he’s worn a mask “in the last week or two” (he did not wear a mask on Tuesday while interacting with Attorney General Bill Barr, who also was not wearing a mask).
Gohmert is actually saying wearing masks promotes COVID19. Most would say this is the most bat shit insane claim ever. But those people have not read the multiple insane comments from Bruce Hall.
It’s the end of July and time to check up on Steven Kopits prognostications from May.
Beware of Definitive Statements: Reader Steven Kopits disputes the idea that the US per capita fatality rates can approach those of Italy
https://econbrowser.com/archives/2020/05/beware-of-definitive-statements
First off, note that Kopits projected the end of the pandemic being the end of July. Not a good start. Here we are at the end of July and the pandemic in the US is increasing, not ending.
Next Kopits: “Italy is about two weeks ahead of the US on the curve. If we project out to the end of the pandemic (end July as a more practical matter), I project Italy’s deaths at 579 / million and the US at 413 / million, that is, the US is projected to suffer 29% fewer deaths per capita.”
As of today, Italy is at 581 and the US is at 464. Not 29% less but only 20% less. But worse, the future doesn’t look good. Today Italy had 6 deaths and the US had 12 hundred deaths — more than 200 times as many deaths. If this rate keeps up, the US will surpass Italy in deaths per capita before the end of August.
And more Kopits: “By the end of the pandemic (end July), I project Italy’s confirmed cases at 3,872 / million and the US at
5,655 / million, 46% higher than Italy.”
As of today, Italy is at 4,082 / million and the US is at 13,700 / million, 236% higher than Italy. Oops!
Beware definitive statements, indeed.
Joseph says: “Beware definitive statements, indeed.” Anyone remember that ole soybean prediction/statement?
(Just for you Menzie!)
CoRev: As I recall, you said soybean prices would pop back up to those in Oct/Nov 2017. Well, prices were around 1000 back then. Latest front month is 884. Take a look https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/ZSX20/interactive-chart
Man, you’re a sucker for punishment.
As I recall Sammy would get all confused about future prices versus current spot prices. So before he throws another one of his befuddled rages, here is a time series of soybean spot prices:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data
Still not near $10.
welcome back from your timeout, idiot.
“Anyone remember that ole soybean prediction/statement?”
Actually we all remember what you predicted which has still not happened. You and Kevin DOW 36000 Hassett really should avoid talking about your old predictions.
CoRev What I remember was your completely asinine comment that a prediction that wasn’t exactly spot on to the penny was just as inaccurate as a prediction that was wide of the mark. Hopefully you used your enforced hiatus to improve your analytical skills. I suppose it’s too much to hope that you took the time to read a real macroeconomics textbook.
CoRev: I am going to do an exhaustive recap of all your predictions, after Jim’s post on GDP. For now, see addendum to this post.
Menzie, I want you to know, these are dark times. Every day looking at the strange orange creature who (is it surreal or a nightmare??) I am told is leading my country right now. Seeing A Pedowitz on the Tucker Carlson show and wanting to puke out my off-brand oreos. I’m not sure what keeps me going sometimes. Baseball on a Saturday night?? Family that I know is there as a safety net?? Some kind of belief in a Savior?? Memories with some girl from Chaoyang at a better time in my life?? Alcoholic beverages?? But I have decided tonight that your CoRev posts and references to “mrp’s” possible unusual DNA sequence have given me enough chuckles to rank somewhere in that group of things that keeps me trodding onward.
In a rare defense of Steven Kopits – had we had a real President doing the right things over the past 6 months, his forecasts made sense. Of course we all know the current President is a complete bozo but I doubt anyone knew back then that even Trump could mess things up the way he has done.
pgl: “I doubt anyone knew back then that even Trump could mess things up the way he has done.”
Speak for yourself. Anyone paying even half way attention has known for the last four years that Trump is defiantly ignorant and totally incompetent. And regarding the pandemic specifically, anyone with any sense knew just how deranged Trump was in his daily coronavirus press conferences. Did you forget injecting bleach? And “I am not responsible”. Did you forget “Liberate Michigan.” “End the lockdowns.” It was very clear three months ago that Trump was goading Republican states to open up because Trump feared the election more than the pandemic.
Everyone with any sense, and all of the epidemiologist experts, said what is happening now is exactly what they predicted would happen three months ago. You can only blame yourself if you are surprised by this.
I agree with all of what you said here. But the degree he has screwed us on this pandemic is whole new level of utter incompetence.
i never expected him to double down on policies that resulted in an increase in deaths-intentionally. but then again, he was willing to separate children and put them into cages. and apparently kidnap protestors.
We humans and our pattern detection impulse… Mine is working overtime today. Gohmert has the plague and calls his staff in to tell them. Herman Cain goes to a Trump rally and dies of Covid-19. Trump’s polls are getting worse every day and Democrats are eyeing a Senate majority. What happens here in the comments section? Bruce and Sammy step up their game (“up” may not be the right word here) and CoRev (which looks suspiciously like Covid – Darned pattern recognition!) comes off the bench. Coincidence?
Clearly not. Their masters have told them to spray graffiti with both hands. Anybody who wanders in here without a clear understanding of what’s going on is at some risk – probably slight at this point – of being confused into thinking that the numbers don’t tell a story, that things aren’t as bad as they really are.
Sadly, intelligent discussion of many issues has been made difficult over the years by professional deniers. The pandemic is just the latest in a long list including the health effects of smoking and climate change. I’d guess that this comment section will be overrun with efforts to destroy balanced discussion of the economy and the pandemic until the election is over, and perhaps beyond. Beyond because Trump needs the nation divided in order to blackmail legal authorities into giving him a pass for his crimes.
One more guess – sammy and Bruce and CoVid will soon be telling us that the election must be put off because of the pandemic, which by the way isn’t nearly as bad as people say.
We have a new MAGA hat wearing troll:
“mrpJuly 30, 2020 at 10:01 am
I tend to believe docs who have first hand experience treating disease…. over an epidemiologist with an outward appearance of impropriety and bias.”
He is dismissing the head of the National Institute of Health. But I interrupted our new troll:
“hcq(plus) has been in use for far longer than you would be led to believe if you read the news. Just saying.
This is Bruce Hall level stupidity. Yea it has been used for malaria, which is not the same thing as COVID-19.
mrp writes more like a bot than an actual commentator.
@ baffling
It’s important to remember Russia and China have actual human (and paid on salary) propagandists online to stir up confusion. They don’t just go on Facebook and twitter, some of them wander around blogs. Some of them sound human, because they are human. I strongly suspected our boy who claimed to be retired Air Force was in this group. I’m wavering on this, but many of his posts fell into this category. There have been others here I suspect of this. Ironically I do not suspect our “usual suspects”, as human paid propagandists would operate in a more sophisticated manner than our “usual suspects”. This reminds me of how some of my Chinese students and Chinese colleagues in northeast China spoke better English than many USA southerners. If they pretended over the phone to be a USA southerner I wouldn’t have believed the better ones (even if they nailed the accent), because their English was far too good to be an American southerner.
agree, most of our “usual suspects” are too stoooopid to be a bot. a bot does not try to defend its stooopid statements, it simply moves on to the next stooopid statement. cannot say the same about our usual suspects. and they are not effective enough to be paid. dick striker is probably the only one on a payroll here.
“blackmail legal authorities into giving him a pass for his crimes.”
If i were biden, i would not brag about this. Dont make it an issue. But starting in the first month, i would have the justice department begin the formal investigation of many trump personnel who violated the law. Barr is one. Wolf and those in homeland security who participated in the kidnapping of protestors. Trump family and inner circle who violated conflicts of interest and national security leaks. The list goes on and on. Trump will not be touched-he is an effective mafia boss. But all those around him should be punished. Set an example so that we need to wait another 100 years before another trump of personality can abuse the office. Biden is a one term president. He can get away with cleaning house. And the public will not denounce him for doing so.