Wisconsin GDP in Q3

Recovery in Wisconsin has brought real GDP back to within 4% of peak levels.

Figure 1: GDP in Wisconsin (red), Minnesota (blue) and US (black), all in Ch.2012$, SAAR, in logs 2019Q4=0. Source: BEA, and author’s calculations.

To place the recovery in context, GDP at 299 billion Ch.2012$ in Q3 implies 12.6% growth in Q4 (to 308 billion) in order to hit the November’s Economic Outlook‘s forecasted level for 2020. This seems unlikely, given national GDP growth nowcasted at about 5.7% (IHS Markit 12/23)

Figure 2: Wisconsin GDP (red), predicted based on US GDP (pink) and Department of Revenue November forecast (teal squares), all in millions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA, Wisconsin Economic Outlook, November 2020, and author’s calculations.

My forecast based on a first differences specification on US GDP, 2019Q1-2020Q3, is for 5.8% growth SAAR, 302.9 billion Ch.2012$ – a lot lower than 308 billion.

The differential in fortunes between goods producing and high-contact services producing sectors is highlighted by the evolution of the manufacturing versus accommodations/food services output.

Figure 3: Wisconsin GDP in manufacturing (blue, left scale), and in accommodation and food services (brown, right scale), all in millions Ch.2012$, SAAR. Source: BEA.

The analogous divergence in employment is discussed here.

10 thoughts on “Wisconsin GDP in Q3

  1. Moses Herzog

    Apparently the orange abomination didn’t want to use up the last of his political capital (or a decent chunk of it) walking out the exit door. The news came around 7pm central tonight?? We should be thankful for that. I’m extraordinarily lucky I don’t have to worry about it too much, my worry is people I care about getting Covid-19 and this doesn’t help much on that score. But we have 3 vaccines soon up on tap. The timing seems nice with the beginning of the New Year. I am disappointed in much of the Biden staff choices, but comparing to the alternative I’m doing my best to bite my tongue. I wager it’s still going to be dangerous for virus transmission up to about July, but happy to be wrong. I was wrong about trump losing, (I had it at 60% trump would win) and I was wrong about Astra Zeneca winning the vaccine race. If things have a happier ending I have no problem with being wrong. So these are things I’m quite content to be wrong about.

    1. Moses Herzog

      Found this in my late night internet wanderings, in-between watching old Rick and Morty shows:
      https://www.ft.com/content/0ad28950-cf97-4ae9-8b08-18fdc9ffbeb1 <<—related to vaccines, public relations, price of vaccines, etc.

      Although I don't recommend this strategy for everyone, I and probably the people in my family will be waiting on the AstraZeneca vaccine, even if the mRNA versions are available long before, for reasons both of costs and the trust factor. Although antibodies taken from apes does not excite me terribly, I still trust Oxford over Pfizer et al

  2. Moses Herzog

    This has no connection to anything. I just thought it was a moving “human interest story” and wanted to share it.
    “One cold evening this month, she was finishing up at the bakery when she learned that a bulk pickup of cakes was delayed. Rather than risk a late delivery, she drove the cakes herself to a pickup stop in Mount Vernon. Shortly after arriving and entering a parking lot, she felt unwell. Her Jeep reversed and then abruptly stopped. She was found in the car the next morning.”

    I’ve always had a liking for carrot cake, only I like to eat it minus the frosting, just itself, and like most cakes (I’m kinda weird that way) I like them a bit to the dry side, maybe minus a small proportion of the oil or eggs. If they have the recipe in one of those NYT links I may give it a go though. She’s in a better place now, though somehow when you’re close to someone (generally I mean, I obviously didn’t know her), I find that thought only mildly comforting. Kinda selfish I guess.

  3. ltr

    December 27, 2020



    Cases   ( 19,573,847)
    Deaths   ( 341,138)


    Cases   ( 10,208,725)
    Deaths   ( 147,940)


    Cases   ( 2,559,686)
    Deaths   ( 62,746)


    Cases   ( 2,288,345)
    Deaths   ( 70,752)


    Cases   ( 1,655,322)
    Deaths   ( 30,502)


    Cases   ( 1,377,217)
    Deaths   ( 122,026)


    Cases   ( 552,020)
    Deaths   ( 14,963)


    Cases   ( 86,955)
    Deaths   ( 4,634)

  4. ltr

    December 27, 2020

    Coronavirus   (Deaths per million)

    UK   ( 1,040)
    US   ( 1,028)
    France   ( 958)
    Mexico   ( 942)

    Canada   ( 395)
    Germany   ( 363)
    India   ( 107)
    China   ( 3)

    Notice the ratios of deaths to coronavirus cases are 8.9%, 3.1% and 2.5% for Mexico, the United Kingdom and France respectively.

  5. ltr


    December 28, 2020

    Chinese mainland reports 21 new COVID-19 cases

    The Chinese mainland on Sunday recorded 21 new COVID-19 cases, including 6 locally transmitted in northeast China’s Liaoning Province, the National Health Commission announced on Monday.

    Twenty new asymptomatic COVID-19 cases were also recorded, while 267 asymptomatic patients remain under medical observation.

    No COVID-19 deaths were registered on Sunday. Meanwhile, 16 patients were discharged from the hospital. The total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China has reached 86,976, and the death toll stood at 4,634.

    Chinese mainland new imported cases


    Chinese mainland new asymptomatic cases


    [ There has been no coronavirus death on the Chinese mainland since the beginning of May.  Since the beginning of June there have been only limited community clusters of infections, each of which was an immediate focus of mass testing, contact tracing and quarantine, with each outbreak having been contained.  Symptomatic and asymptomatic cases are all contact traced and quarantined.

    Imported coronavirus cases are caught at entry points with required testing and immediate quarantine.  Cold-chain imported food products are all checked and tracked through distribution.  The flow of imported cases to China is low, but has been persistent.

    There are now 339 active coronavirus cases in all on the Chinese mainland, 5 of which cases are classed as serious or critical. ]

  6. pgl


    Louie Gohmert Sues Mike Pence in Lawsuit Asking Court to Give Pence “Exclusive Authority” To Decide Which Electoral College Votes to Count at Jan. 6 Congressional Session (No, This Won’t Work)

    Just wow – I guess Gohmert never read the Constitution!

    1. Moses Herzog

      The one that got me was just casually reading something, and then noticing it said 18 Attorney Generals had signed on to the Supreme Court lawsuit. Now I know that has been decided already, but think about it, the Attorney General is the highest LAW official of any state, 18 of the 50 United States highest state level law officials—that’s 36%, wanted to overturn the citizens’ popular vote, 7 million votes more than the orange abomination. That is something I will never forget, and I don’t think other Americans should forget either. This should be a scarlet letter that follows these 18 AGs to their grave and beyond.

        1. Moses Herzog

          Bernie Sanders was asked on PBS NewsHour today what he thought about agreeing with donald trump on the $2,000 stimulus checks. Sanders said even a broken clock gets the time right twice a day, so I’m marking down the time I made that comment so I know when to make my next comment.

          : )

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