Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again

From CNN, “McConnell says GOP will not vote to raise debt ceiling, setting up clash in Congress”:

“I can’t imagine there will be a single Republican voting to raise the debt ceiling after what we’ve been experiencing,” McConnell said in an interview with Punchbowl News published Wednesday.

CBO released a report today estimating that Treasury will exhaust funds, even after implementing emergency measures, by October or November.  So expect a replay of the mid-2000’s when Republican political brinksmanship led to heightened economic policy uncertainty.

Figure 1: Economic Policy Uncertainty index (news) (blue line), and 7 day centered moving average (red line). Source: policyuncertainty.com and author’s calculations.

Note that these spikes are high, but not the highest in the series — that award goes to the entry on 4/26/2020, in the wake of Mr. Trump’s 4/23 musings that bleach might be an effective treatment for Covid-19.

Econbrowser assessments during those previous episodes, here , here, here, here and here.

 

13 thoughts on “Republicans Aim to Raise Economic Policy Uncertainty… Again

      1. Moses Herzog

        @ Menzie As a man with a very German last name, and a semi-decent amount of German blood I really find it distasteful you speak about Germans in this manner (joke, I think you and I are near to the last people left on Earth who can hear our own raced disparaged in a general manner (or specific criticism if you prefer) who don’t get to upset about it, if the criticism is is accurate Love you human bro.

        Reply
        1. Moses Herzog

          Isn’t it horrible how when you’re enjoying certain things your finger sticks to the keyboard just that little bit longer to misspell things??? I’m suing you Menzie for hurt feelings over things I did to myself.

          Reply
    1. pgl

      McConnell is trying to scare Biden into being an impotent President. Ain’t working so far.

      What was McConnell’s line when he was majority leader? Oh yea – all I want is an up or down vote.

      All I want is for Senator Turtle to duck his little head back into his shell.

      Reply
  1. ltr

    http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2021-07/21/c_1310075258.htm

    July 21, 2021

    China to release more state metal reserves

    BEIJING — China’s top economic planner and the state reserves authority said Wednesday that the country will release another batch of national reserves including copper, aluminum and zinc.

    Some 30,000 tonnes of copper, 90,000 tonnes of aluminum and 50,000 tonnes of zinc will be released from the national reserves in late July, according to the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration.

    China’s national reserves are abundant, and it is capable of cooling the market, said Xu Gaopeng, an official with the administration.

    Since the beginning of this year, the prices of bulk commodities have surged due to factors including the overseas spreading of COVID-19 and the imbalances of supply and demand, causing pressures to medium and small firms.

    To maintain market order, China released 100,000 tonnes of copper, aluminum and zinc from its national reserves on July 5.

    [ China is working sector by sector to moderate price movements. An approach that has been successful for years. ]

    Reply
  2. 2slugbaits

    So why not attach raise the debt ceiling as part of the overall reconciliation package? I can’t imagine that the Parliamentarian would object. After all, to approve spending also implies approval of cutting the actual Treasury checks.

    Reply
  3. Macroduck

    As a stand-aline bill, raisung the debt ceiling can be filibustered. Republicans have the power, ansent a rule change, to induce default.

    The last time McConnell tried to extract concessions in return for not filibustering a debt ceiling increase, Obama refused. McConnell caved.

    Not sure whether the parliamentarian would allow including a debt ceilimg hike in a continuing resolution. If so, then Dinos are the inly impediment to a debt ceiling increase, even if Mitch has increased his crazy-pill intake.

    Reply
  4. Baffling

    Since econned was ignorant of the republican obstruction and influence on uncertainty in a previous post, i hope he reads and learns from this post the impact republicans had on uncertainty during the obama years.

    Reply

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