CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths

Compare the CDC ensemble forecast released today, as compared to that generated the previous week and discussed in this post.

Source: CDC, August 2 ensemble forecast.

The August 2 forecasted Florida weekly death rate for 8/23 is about 690, up from a bit under 600 (I’m eyeballing here) indicated in the July 26 forecast shown below.

Source: CDC, July 26 ensemble forecast.

Here are the detail figures for individual forecasts for the August 2 forecast, and the July 26 forecast.

Source: CDC, August 2 ensemble forecast.

Source: CDC, July 26 ensemble forecast.

If you are skeptical of the forecasts of these types of models, well, you can just look at Florida hospitalizations as of today.

Source: Newsnodes, accessed 8/4/2021.

In past waves, hospitalizations have lead fatalities, as shown in this post.

35 thoughts on “CDC Ensemble Model Ups Predicted Florida Weekly Deaths

  1. Baffling

    Its almost as though republican governors want a high death count they can use against biden in the next election. They want to be able to claim biden was just as bad as trump with covid deaths.

    1. Gregory Bott

      You gotta be kidding me. Florida’s lack of antibodies amid a decent vaccination rate is the problem. Considering how overblown Covid is in general, I don’t think it matters in the election. Democrats made a large error in the 2020 election by focusing on it to its own failure.

      We are seeing hospitalizations fall now from a low base in the United Kingdom despite cases averaging around 100-120 thousand adjusted for US population. Why??? High antibodies.

      This is not the Spanish flu and never will be.

      1. pgl

        Are you just reading from the transcript of Tucker Carlson’s show last night? That was both the most dishonest comment of the year and also the dumbest.

      2. Dr. Dysmalist

        “Florida’s lack of antibodies amid a decent vaccination rate is the problem.”

        Nym checks out

  2. Not Trampis

    except they are killing their own. If you are vaccinated you are unlikely to be in hospital let alone die

    1. JohnH

      Naturally pgl has not ventured out beyond his ivory tower to see what lumber really sells for.

      The only thing pgl knows about lumber is that which is found between his two ears. And it is practically worthless.

  3. ltr

    August 5, 2021

    Over 1.72 bln doses of COVID-19 vaccines administered in China

    BEIJING — More than 1.72 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccines had been administered in China by Wednesday, the National Health Commission said Thursday.

    [ Chinese coronavirus vaccine yearly production capacity is now over 5 billion doses. Along with over 1.726 billion doses of Chinese vaccines administered domestically, another 750 million doses have been distributed internationally. A number of countries are now producing Chinese vaccines from delivered raw materials. ]

    1. Barkley Rosser


      While PRC has been producing lots of its not-all-that-effective vaccines, it has been selling them abroad. The US has been donating many, although not as many as PRC has sold. US has donated more than all other nations put together, and way more than PRC, which is busy selling their borderline no-good vaccines.

    2. ltr

      Importantly, the Chinese began administering vaccines domestically in June 2020, more than 14 months ago. Between June 1, 2020 and August 5, 2021 there have been only 2 coronavirus related deaths in China, and sadly neither person had been vaccinated. Since June 2020, there have been remarkably few coronavirus cases, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic, detected in China and the great portion of detected cases have been imported.

  4. SecondLook

    Sociologists have been noting the decline of social capital for some decades now. A decline in a civic community connection.
    Robert Putnam’s book: Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community, is well worth reading as an introduction to the issue.
    A good deal of the American response to the pandemic can be attributed to the weakness of our general social bonds.
    Simply put, we have largely rejected Donne’s poem:

    No man is an island,
    Entire of itself;
    Every man is a piece of the continent,
    A part of the main.
    If a clod be washed away by the sea,
    Europe is the less,
    As well as if a promontory were:
    As well as if a manor of thy friend’s
    Or of thine own were.
    Any man’s death diminishes me,
    Because I am involved in mankind.
    And therefore never send to know for whom the bell tolls;
    It tolls for thee.

      1. Dr. Dysmalist

        Are you talking about the social scores implemented by the CCP, that can determine whether a person has access to many social and economic goods? And are you trying to equate them to the concept of social capital, which consists of involvement in one’s community, active membership in service organizations (like Kiwanis, Jaycees, etc., churches, and other local groups, knowledge of and participation in local politics, among other activities? If so, you’re way, WAY off the mark and you need to cool your RW fever dreams.

        Laments about the decline of social capital like I just described has been written about semi-regularly for years. Those writers include such Communist luminaries as … David Brooks?! If you’re unaware of this, you need to shut up and read more; you’re too ignorant to be commenting on this and, frankly, many other topics. Cluelessness is never a strong foundation for commentary, only for pointless and ridiculous trolling.

      2. SecondLook

        I will assume that you couldn’t resist making a joke that the less informed would laugh at.

        Of course, you know that social capital, while has been employed as a term for a number of related concepts at its core refers to its original definition:

        “…not refer to real estate, or to personal property or to cold cash, but rather to that in life which tends to make these tangible substances count for most in the daily lives of people, namely, goodwill, fellowship, mutual sympathy and social intercourse among a group of individuals and families who make up a social unit.… If he may come into contact with his neighbour, and they with other neighbours, there will be an accumulation of social capital, which may immediately satisfy his social needs and which may bear a social potentiality sufficient to the substantial improvement of living conditions in the whole community. The community as a whole will benefit by the cooperation of all its parts, while the individual will find in his associations the advantages of the help, the sympathy, and the fellowship of his neighbours.”

        Often heavily emphasized by the non-libertarian school of American conservatives. That the cliche about he who dies with the most money wins, is a false proposition, but rather they who die with the most friends win…

        1. Barkley Rosser

          For what it is worth, studies of social capital have usually focused on one of two variables: levels of membership in community groups, the measure favored by Bob Putnam, and levels of generalized trust. Unsurprisingly these are correlated, but not perfectly so.

          As it is, studies relating social capital to economic growth have tended to find that the second one, generalized trust, tends to have the stronger relation than the first one, although this matter is one of ongoing study and debate.

  5. ltr

    Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

    I’ve been doing some number-crunching on Florida, which has become the poster child for red-state Covid disaster; not only does it top the nation in hospitalizations per capita, but it’s far bigger than the other disaster states 1/


    So if you put a dollar value on it, DeSantis’s anti-mask, anti-Vax policies are costing his state the equivalent of 13% of its GDP. Winning the pandemic! 6/

    8:47 AM · Aug 2, 2021

    [ How the cost in Florida might be estimated. The steps are all at the reference link, and I will fill them in later. ]

    1. ltr

      Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

      I’ve been doing some number-crunching on Florida, which has become the poster child for red-state Covid disaster; not only does it top the nation in hospitalizations per capita, but it’s far bigger than the other disaster states 1/

      DeSantis has been touting the FL economy — although how well will that economy hold up as potential visitors realize that the Sunshine state has become extremely dangerous and its hospital system is in overload crisis? 2/

      But leaving that aside, a good economy isn’t much comfort if you’re dead. FL currently losing ~58 people to Covid per day, compared with ~6 in NY. Say the excess death toll is ~40 a day. What’s that worth? 3/

      The standard valuation of a human life — based on revealed individual preferences — is $10 million. So FL should have been willing to pay $400 million a day to avoid these deaths 4/

      How Government Agencies Determine The Dollar Value Of Human Life
      Reopening the economy requires contemplating the trade-off between lives and money. Government agencies are already used to putting dollar values on human life when considering safety regulations.

      FL’s GDP is $1.1 trillion a year, or $3 billion a day 5/

      So if you put a dollar value on it, DeSantis’s anti-mask, anti-Vax policies are costing his state the equivalent of 13% of its GDP. Winning the pandemic! 6/

      8:47 AM · Aug 2, 2021

  6. ltr

    August 5, 2021

    China to provide 2 billion COVID-19 vaccines globally this year: Xi

    BEIJING — China will strive to provide 2 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses to the world throughout this year and offer 100 million U.S. dollars to COVAX, Chinese President Xi Jinping said Thursday in a written message to the first meeting of the international forum on COVID-19 vaccine cooperation.

    The 100 million U.S. dollars to COVAX will mainly go to the distribution of vaccines to developing countries, he said, adding that China would do its best to help developing countries cope with the COVID-19 pandemic.

    China is committed to building a global community of health for all and has provided vaccines to the world, especially developing countries. The country actively carried out joint production, which illustrates the concept of vaccines as global public goods, Xi stressed….

    1. JohnH

      Kind of reminds me of when I drove to Canada. The Canadian border agent asked, “Are you carrying any firearms?”

      On my return, the US border agent asked, “Did you buy any prescription drugs?”

      The US is all about drug company profits. It sounds like China, like Canada, is more interested in protecting people.

  7. joseph

    pgl: “The spike has more than fully reversed itself. And JohnH said this would never happen. I guess he is still paying Lowe’s inflated prices as he has no clue where the local Home Depot is.”

    Future prices are not spot prices — backwardation. Plain old 1/2 inch CDX plywood is still $40 a sheet instead of normal $10 at my local hardware stores — if you can even get it. Supplies are still low and prices are still high, but coming down. Convergence is still some ways out there.

    1. pgl

      Yea but JohnH is paying $80 not $40 as he is too stupid to head over to Home Depot. BTW – Menzie has decided to provide a new post on this issue.

    2. joseph

      Yeah, but this statement is just wrong: “The spike has more than fully reversed itself.”

      You are looking at futures, not actual retail prices. Futures are, well, in the future. There is a lag in spot prices. And if you actually go to Home Depot or Lowes, you are likely to find no stock in common types of plywood. And current prices are 400% of normal. The spike hasn’t reversed itself, yet, and as Menzie shows, maybe not until the end of the year at the retail level.

      This has matters a lot to residential investment for GDP. A lot of projects are still on hold until prices resolve.

  8. joseph

    “Florida’s lack of antibodies amid a decent vaccination rate is the problem.”

    I think the Desantis plan is to hide the bodies. He only reports official data once a week now.

  9. Not Trampis

    excellent article at 538 on this.
    Republicans are reaping what they have sowed. Even as some have changed their minds some perhaps most of the base have not

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